ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

It's either 12.25N-67.2W where the models have it, or 13N-66W

[KWT]

Convection has certainly decreased though there are still spots of deep convection present. Motion still seems to be WNW to me.

[RattleMan]

cycloneye, do you the last one of those you posted, how about posting them both so we can see the difference, thx

J

Is this what you want?

http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/2998/0 ... tbwra3.gif

[Aric Dunn]

radar is picking the system up now.. and there is clearly broad turning.

http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppicolor.html

and there is signs of a surface reflection beginnig to form between 12 and 13n & 66 to 67w
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

some surface obs
buoy just to the north
east wind
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

as for shear. The shear is not a problem at this time and should not be anytime in the near future as the ULL is weakening and moving west a head of the system. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[jlauderdal]

cycloneye, do you the last one of those you posted, how about posting them both so we can see the difference, thx

J

Is this what you want?

http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/2998/0 ... tbwra3.gif

perfect, shows the difference where they think it could go

[KWT]

Broad circulation seems to be focused close to 13N 66W but its very broad so extends over quite a big area in which something at the lower levels could develop.

Got to start lifting NW pretty soon if the idea of some of the global models ideas are to come of.

[Aric Dunn]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241745
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS IT MOVES
WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY
SPREAD SQUALLY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[KWT]

Deep convection developing closer to the broad rotation again, looks like the circulation is focused on 13N-66W, looks like its on a WNW motion to me though the broad circulation at least appears to be on a slight more southerly track.

Think we may well see a NW track soon though who knows!

[Dean4Storms]

I agree, 13N 66W seems to be about right and moving 280-285 at most. This looks troublesome and I suspect by the time Recon gets out to it tomorrow it'll be a TS.

[KWT]

Well the last 12hrs have seen this roughly go on a WNW track at a fairly decent clip at that, pretty much 20mph according to the Dvorak estimated positions. Extrap that motion it has takes it close to Haiti but to the south rather than through it and thats of course if the current slightly more southerly motion in the last few hours.

[Blown Away]

The TAFB has "Possible Tropical Cyclone" for the 24 & 48 hour forecast, but none for the 72 hour forecast, higher shear at 72 hours??
24 hour: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
48 hour: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
72 hour: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[KWT]

That track looks fairly realisitic given the current broad motion of W/WNW, though I think it may be just a touch south of where 94L will end up, also note it bends back west as well.

[OuterBanker]

Just dropped by for a minute. Anyone seen the Canadian. Deja Vue Fay. A carbon copy. And the new invest too.

[KWT]

Interestingly on the most northward motion over 6hrs in the last 18hrs it would still only just clip the far Se part of Haiti so unless the motion pulls further north then that, which is possible of course then its not going to go over the center of Hispaniola like some models progs.

Still think its only a matter of time before this system develops, the key is whether it runs into the higher shear further north or keeps in the lower shear further south closer to where it is now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like it has a circulation at some level, but with an outflow boundary racing away to the SW, probably still has a way to go.

[Derek Ortt]

decent at the mid levels

however, the farther north it goes, the greater the shear. I fail to understand why the GFS is missing the shear, as evidenced by the SHIPS analysis

one other note, about the NHC TWO. I have seen many people think here that orange means development is expected. Quick math lesson. 100%-20 to 50 yields a 50-50% chance that development will NOT occur. Orange does not indicate development is expected

[KWT]

Yeah Derek the shear is pretty obvious, though if you look at the speed its moving towards the WNw I find it hard to believe in some of the models that really bend it towards Hispaniola now, though NW motion would still get the job done but the longer it takes to get off this 285 type motion the harder it gets and the more likely that it is a Cuba/central America threat.

Derek, you could even go as far as to say Orange still means its more likely not to form in the timframe than it is...

[deltadog03]

I see, your points Derek, but I really think Models are either strengthening this too quickly or just having a hard time with motion. Its still moving around 280 I would say....Looks very nice in the Midlevels at least. Too hard to tell if its got anything at the SFC. If this does go near the islands...ITs audios amigo for sure, but if it takes the GFDL (a run from yesterday) then I think its got a VERY good chance to be a strong system.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I see, your points Derek, but I really think Models are either strengthening this too quickly or just having a hard time with motion. Its still moving around 280 I would say....Looks very nice in the Midlevels at least. Too hard to tell if its got anything at the SFC. If this does go near the islands...ITs audios amigo for sure, but if it takes the GFDL (a run from yesterday) then I think its got a VERY good chance to be a strong system.

Or it can be like Fay...look for a 10k ft mountian and develop.LOL

[Derek Ortt]

this has been moving right along the global model tracks

it has most certainly turned today... looks to be heading about 295 now