ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cycloneye]

If the wave stays like it is now,it will be beneficial to some of the islands in the NE Caribbean that have deficits of precipitation,including Puerto Rico,where there are some areas that have lower rain totals this year.

[Daisy]

Thanks for the links.

[HURAKAN]

[txwatcher91]

If the wave stays like it is now,it will be beneficial to some of the islands in the NE Caribbean that have deficits of precipitation,including Puerto Rico,where there are some areas that have lower rain totals this year.

Yeah and if it becomes a weak TS it would be even more beneficial as it would provide more widespread rains.

[gatorcane]

Honestly I would be shocked right now if 94L does not become a depression within the next 12 hours or so, its steadily becoming more organized and is getting ready to hit a DMAX where convection should start to explode.

Come back and check on it in about 6 hours or so, I expect to see alot more convection surrounding it.

[KWT]

Indeed they do start somewhere txwatcher91 thats why its still worth watching this because you just don't know.

Still those are to the SW of the center, if I had to guess the center would be up at 12N and around 44W though it may be quite broad now and therefore covering greater area.

Gatorcane, unless that divergence goes the best convection you will get is like the small cels that are present to the SW of the center, there will be no burst unless it goes nd that will take time.

[lebron23]

Frank B ( houston met) said this at 4:08 CT

I would think we have a td now, so I'd expect at least that at 10---who knows, they might just jump to full blown storm stage.

[MiamiensisWx]

Indeed they do start somewhere txwatcher91 thats why its still worth watching this because you just don't know.

Still those are to the SW of the center, if I had to guess the center would be up at 12N and around 44W though it may be quite broad now and therefore covering greater area.

Gatorcane, unless that divergence goes the best convection you will get is like the small cels that are present to the SW of the center, there will be no burst unless it goes nd that will take time.

You mean "come"...

[gatorcane]

Indeed they do start somewhere txwatcher91 thats why its still worth watching this because you just don't know.

Still those are to the SW of the center, if I had to guess the center would be up at 12N and around 44W though it may be quite broad now and therefore covering greater area.

Gatorcane, unless that divergence goes the best convection you will get is like the small cels that are present to the SW of the center, there will be no burst unless it goes nd that will take time.

Just check out the IR loop, the "envelope" of moisture continues to expand around the LLC, especially the east side and there is a nice band of deeper convection on the N and NW sides. The moisture is there, the structure is there, its going through a period of organization and reorganization but its gradually getting its act together.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[KWT]

No I mean goes because its the diveregence vurrently thats stopping anything getting going in that center region, the fact we have strong convergence further south isn't helping either.

Everything there Gatorcane except the trigger to get the deeper convection going in the center in the first place. I do agree it needs to be watched still however.

[RL3AO]

Pretty simple when you think about it.

It has left the Intertropical Convergence Zone. When it did, it lost all inflow (convergence) and now is falling apart quicker than A-Rods marriage.

[gatorcane]

No I mean goes because its the diveregence vurrently thats stopping anything getting going in that center region, the fact we have strong convergence further south isn't helping either.

Everything there Gatorcane except the trigger to get the deeper convection going in the center in the first place. I do agree it needs to be watched still however.

Yes I understand the divergence issue but I do think it will likely be our next TD....I think some of us are being a little too impatient, especially after what we saw with the deep convection last night

[PTrackerLA]

It almost looks like there is an outflow boundary pushing south on the western side of the circulation: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html. However with such a large circulation envelope it's hard for me to see this completely vanishing. We should know quite a bit more by tomorrow. In the meantime everyone can hold themselves over by watching Bertha annoy the hell out of us and forecasters.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The convergence/divergence image is now 3 hours and 40 minutes old ( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html ).

It will be interesting to see what the next image update shows when it eventually comes out...

[KWT]

As it happens it may well still get upgraded if the deeper convection doesn't totally decay IMO.
extremeweatherguy, I think it may show slightly less divergence but who knows!

[lebron23]

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
TURNING...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIMITED TO 90
NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE CENTER. A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FARTHER S EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

[KWT]

The main thing I wonder about is what will happen once it clears away from the deep convection that is to the south, once it reaches 55W it may find itself not having to compete with that large mass so if it survives then I wonder what may happen?

[Tampa_God]

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With a recent burst of convection around the center, I expect later tonight we will have TD3. Even with it's broad circulation, it has improved in the past hours and I don't see anything hampering further development. After tonight, the storm will continue to move West past 50W. After 55W, I expect this to be named Tropical Storm Cristobal and start making a WNW direction. The islands will have to keep an eye on this storm, as I expect this storm will contain 60 mph winds before crossing the islands. By Friday, this storm should be somewhere south of Haiti as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. I expect shear in the Carribbean to begin diminishing by tomorrow and be weak by the time Cristobal enters the area. After that, it's very unclear where this will go. Stearing winds should be able to push this more on a NW track by the time it is in the NW Carr. But the timing of this happening is very conflicting, if Cristobal speeds up, it will hit the Yucatan and weaken the system before entering the GOM. But if it keeps with a 10 mph speed, this can either hit the Northern tip of Cuba or go between Yucatan and Cuba. Ofcourse this means that weakening will only be minimal or not occur at all. I expect this to be a threat to the Gulf Coast. Location of impact is uncertain at this time due to the distance in timing. Can this be a Major storm? Certainly, I don't see anything disturbing it until it reaches the NW Carr., where it could come into land contact. But by than, it could as well be a Category 3 storm at that time.

[RL3AO]

What burst?

[KWT]

The problem is Tampa god I don't see any convection over the center at the moment though if the center opens up who knows if a deeper burst does develop off to the Nw where conditions are better we may see a center reolcation who knows?!