ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Cape Verde]

I'm curious how Kenedy County fared. It's not important in the overall scheme of things since so few people live there. But there are some pricey ranch complexes. This is where Dick Cheney had the unfortunate quail-hunting accident a couple of years ago.

Few lives in danger in Kenedy County, which was close to the northern portion of the eye. But plenty of expensive real estate nonetheless.

[Cape Verde]

SPI reported everyone wants off the island now...Causeway is still closed until winds fall below 45mph. Hotels have taken good damage to windows and roofs with water flowing inside...shelters of last resort being set up on the island until causeway is opened.

Since that Causeway (I'd call it a bridge since it is quite elevated) is the only way off the island. So they can want what they want, but it doesn't matter.

[Category 5]

A beach drowning death in Panama City Beach, FL is being attributed to rip currents caused by Hurricane Dolly.

Seems quite unlikely that Dolly would affect currents on the FL beach from so far away. Winds along the beach there have generally been less than 10 kts the past day.

Bertha caused rip currents in Myrtle Beach. Seems that they'd be even worse in the confined area of the Gulf.

2 deaths in New Jersey from rip currents then as well.

[Sanibel]

Rio Grande drainage should have a good flooding over the next 24 hours. US and Mexico sides.

[Category 5]

This is frightening

[txwatcher91]

Anyone notice how well the eye is holding up? Is this normal?
45 minutes ago


Now

[Wx_Warrior]

As far as models...Kudos to GFS, EURO...!!! Hope all is well down south to my native Tejasans.

[txwatcher91]

For the pro mets or anyone that knows, Dolly's eye has now become more circular, smaller, and less clutter in the middle even though she is over land. Why is she holding together so well?

[Steve]

>>That intensification before landfall caught a lot of people off guard, I guess.

Not everyone. People who live there ought to know this stuff by now - or you would think anyway.

Steve

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Do you think that this was kind of like Hurricane CLAUDETTE 2003, but farther south? They both strengthen at landfall and had a eye at landfall. Both had nice eyewalls and a nice centeral dense overcast.

[Brent]

Do you think that this was kind of like Hurricane CLAUDETTE 2003, but farther south? They both strengthen at landfall and had a eye at landfall. Both had nice eyewalls and a nice centeral dense overcast.

Very similar. It was one of the first storms I thought of as a good analog.

[TexWx]

First of all, I still haven't heard from my cousin or her family...
Hopefully just the lines are down.

Also, I just heard that SPI is without water.

[LAwxrgal]

South Texas was one of the few areas of the Gulf coastline that hadn't been touched by the recent hurricane onslaught of the last few years -- until today.

[Air Force Met]

This is going to go well south of the next forecast point...and it is moving a lot slower. I would have to move at 310 at 10 kts...

This is a serious problem shaping up flooding wise.

[txwatcher91]

This is going to go well south of the next forecast point...and it is moving a lot slower. I would have to move at 310 at 10 kts...

This is a serious problem shaping up flooding wise.

Hey AFM, what do you think of the better satellite and radar presentation?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-avn.html

[Duddy]

First of all, I still haven't heard from my cousin or her family...
Hopefully just the lines are down.

Also, I just heard that SPI is without water.

Which wireless carrier do they have? I work for AT&T and can tell you that several sites are down. There is no way they could get a call out.

They're fine, just without communication.

[jabman98]

>>That intensification before landfall caught a lot of people off guard, I guess.

Not everyone. People who live there ought to know this stuff by now - or you would think anyway.

Steve

Well not us weather geeks. But I think the average person doesn't know about stuff like that and just sort of hears "Cat 1" and thinks that's how it's gonna be and it's not that bad. The fact that it can blow up before landfall, or sit right on top of them for a long time, may not be how the average person thinks about it. Maybe they should, but not sure they do.

And the whole "past storm performance" issue comes into play too. On one of the network feeds I saw one man who chose to stay on SPI say, "Well, they said Rita was coming here and then she didn't, so I figured I'd stay." Arrgh.

[CrazyC83]

Now down to a minimal Cat 1 (65 kt).

[cycloneye]

I dont know what word to use to describe how South Texas was lucky,fortunate or other word of a much more stronger Dolly would haved made landfall (Look at all the damage as a cat 1-2) .The two things that come to my mind are the days,the system laked a LLC,proccess that lasted almost since the system was tagged as invest 94L as we know was a difficult system to track in terms of intensity,some called it a tropical storm wave.The other factor on why South Texas didnt see a major cane making landfall was the interaction of the wave with a pesky upper low combined with the Yucatan friction effectwhich contribute another stalling moment that kept it from major status.

[txwatcher91]

GR2 still shows 82kts at only 2300 feet.