Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[gotoman38]

AHHHHHH OMG!!!!!!!!!!!1
The XTRP Model has it coming straight to Key West!!!!!!!

On subject: How soon after we have recon (Tues scheduled) will this data be incorporated into the model data?

[Tertius]

operational early cycle link for 00z

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

AHHHHHH OMG!!!!!!!!!!!1
The XTRP Model has it coming straight to Key West!!!!!!!









Sorry... I had to be the first one to say that.
Of course, for those who are playing at home, XTRP is not a model, but rather an extrapolation of the current movement, projected out for five days. It takes no dynamics into play.

You are an evil, evil, man.

[JonathanBelles]

lol Senor!

[dropsonde98]

Does anyone have an idea when the G IV aircraft will be investigating this system?

[JonathanBelles]

Issued this morning...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061715 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 06 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK. (AMENDED)
A. POSSIBLE AIR FORCE FLIGHT ON TS BERTHA,
8/18Z, 20N 57W.
3. BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES 9/12Z IF NECESSARY.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SMR

[HURAKAN]

The XTRP is very straight forward compared to the computer models!

[senorpepr]

AHHHHHH OMG!!!!!!!!!!!1
The XTRP Model has it coming straight to Key West!!!!!!!

On subject: How soon after we have recon (Tues scheduled) will this data be incorporated into the model data?

I don't think there will be much change in the models, given that the scheduled missions are only fix missions.
Now, if there was a synoptic dropsonde mission scheduled (where they fly ahead of the storm at high altitude, dropping dropsondes), that would have a significant (or at least a better chance to) impact the models.

[senorpepr]

Does anyone have an idea when the G IV aircraft will be investigating this system?

I doubt there will be a G IV mission, although I've been wrong many times before.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS does not know that Bertha is out there.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[MGC]

So do you expect the GFS to correctly gage the strength of the ridge if it is losing Bertha?....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

well .. the gfs brings whatever is left of bertha .. ( not that its strength is a big deal in the model) but the second trof on this run is weaker a pulls out faster.. and it brings it very close to NC

[Thunder44]

The 0z/07 CMC, UKMET and the NOGAPS have a stronger Bertha, near Bermuda by 144hrs:

CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008070700

[Thunder44]

653
WHXX01 KWBC 070712
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0712 UTC MON JUL 7 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080707 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080707 0600 080707 1800 080708 0600 080708 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 49.4W 19.9N 52.7W 20.2N 55.5W 20.7N 57.8W
BAMD 19.1N 49.4W 20.1N 51.6W 20.8N 53.0W 21.4N 54.3W
BAMM 19.1N 49.4W 19.9N 51.8W 20.5N 53.7W 21.1N 55.4W
LBAR 19.1N 49.4W 20.0N 51.7W 21.1N 53.9W 21.9N 55.9W
SHIP 65KTS 75KTS 79KTS 81KTS
DSHP 65KTS 75KTS 79KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080709 0600 080710 0600 080711 0600 080712 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 59.7W 22.6N 63.5W 24.5N 66.2W 25.4N 68.2W
BAMD 22.0N 55.6W 23.8N 58.3W 25.5N 60.6W 26.3N 62.7W
BAMM 21.6N 57.0W 23.2N 60.1W 24.9N 62.7W 25.8N 65.3W
LBAR 22.9N 57.3W 25.5N 60.0W 27.9N 60.9W 29.3N 61.8W
SHIP 77KTS 70KTS 62KTS 59KTS
DSHP 77KTS 70KTS 62KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 49.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 46.2W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$
NNNN

[Meso]

Nice, Initialized as a Hurricane..Interesting eye feature, guess the question is now how strong can she get.Shear is forecast to increase a bit and then decrease again and then increase again slowly..Could possibly see an 80-85kt storm from this

[Thunder44]

The ECMWF is weaker but it also has it near Bermuda between by 144hrs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[KWT]

Well looks like the models are finally coming into good agreement now of coming close to Bermuda, this may well not be a fish if it does come close to Bermuda, really wouldn't take much of a eastward shift of the NHC track to put Bermuda right into the main threat zone.

Looks like the models are trending to send this a little to the west but Bermuda will be in the cone.

SHIPS take this upto 80kts but then quickly weakens this system down to a strong tropical storm again by 120hrs.

[JonathanBelles]

GFS is running. Wow im up late, or is it early....I never watch the 06Z run.

[vacanechaser]

GFS is running. Wow im up late, or is it early....I never watch the 06Z run.

you re early... too early... this the time i have to be at work... welcome




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ronjon]

Well, if the 06Z GFS is any indication of what happens to Bertha - we may be watching this storm a long time (7 to 10 days according to his run). The GFS weak version of Bertha basically stalls the storm south of Bermuda from Wednesday through Saturday, then pushes it S-SE for a couple of days, which then gets absorbed by another wave heading toward S FL which eventually forms low pressure along the SE coast of FL (10 days plus down the road). A total fantasy run I'm sure but the GFS has been pretty persistent in trapping the storm in the ridge and now not being picked up by the second trough. Probably this why the NHC is expressing some reservation about a recurve scenario. Be interesting to see how this evolves. Local NWS now saying 595-596 dm upper high and strong surface ridge building into FL on Friday from the western Atlantic. I don't think we know for certain which way this storm is going to go yet.

[ftolmsteen]

Hmm...

It does look like Bertha has a potential to do a loop at the end of these model runs.