ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Gustywind]

WHXX01 KWBC 201235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080820 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080820 1200 080821 0000 080821 1200 080822 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 42.0W 12.9N 44.2W 13.8N 47.0W 15.0N 49.9W
BAMD 12.2N 42.0W 12.5N 43.4W 12.8N 45.4W 13.0N 47.9W
BAMM 12.2N 42.0W 12.4N 43.7W 12.4N 45.9W 12.4N 48.3W
LBAR 12.2N 42.0W 12.4N 44.0W 12.8N 46.6W 13.4N 49.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080822 1200 080823 1200 080824 1200 080825 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 53.2W 18.6N 60.2W 21.3N 66.8W 24.0N 70.4W
BAMD 13.2N 50.4W 13.5N 56.2W 14.3N 62.5W 15.3N 68.5W
BAMM 12.4N 51.1W 12.8N 56.8W 13.0N 62.3W 13.3N 67.6W
LBAR 13.9N 52.7W 16.5N 59.5W 19.5N 65.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 42.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 39.0W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 37.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The models seem once again to be trending southward and this time more to the west on this run. Leewards and NE Leewards,PR ...and afterwards Windwards Islands too,should keep an eye on this because there's many incertitudes on the possible path ( should 94 forms into a TD first ), lbut let's see what happens,bear watching .

[cycloneye]

Models keep going more and more west.

801
WHXX01 KWBC 201833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080820 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080820 1800 080821 0600 080821 1800 080822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 43.5W 13.4N 46.2W 14.7N 49.1W 15.8N 52.3W
BAMD 12.5N 43.5W 12.9N 45.1W 13.4N 47.3W 14.1N 49.9W
BAMM 12.5N 43.5W 12.7N 45.6W 13.1N 48.0W 13.4N 50.6W
LBAR 12.5N 43.5W 12.7N 45.8W 13.4N 48.7W 14.2N 51.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080822 1800 080823 1800 080824 1800 080825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 56.1W 20.5N 63.1W 23.9N 67.9W 26.4N 68.8W
BAMD 14.7N 52.5W 15.7N 58.6W 17.0N 64.9W 18.4N 70.1W
BAMM 14.1N 53.7W 15.6N 60.0W 16.9N 66.0W 17.7N 71.4W
LBAR 15.5N 55.1W 18.5N 62.1W 21.9N 66.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 87KTS
DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 43.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 37.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Yep not surprising cycloneye, the models always seem to go too far to the north with invests when they first form, I'm pretty confident given the huge ridge further north that this doesn't get above 20N till at least 80W, interesting to see the GFDL really doesn't do anything with it past say 48-72hrs.

[cycloneye]

I dont know but I dont think what the EURO shows south of Cuba is 94L,am I right about that?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

[cheezyWXguy]

what is the shear forecast?Apparently pretty low, since its almost 90kt in 5 days w/out land interaction

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC SHIP forecast.Almost nada of shear in this run:

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  08/20/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    35    39    48    57    67    71    76    81    84    87
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    35    39    48    57    67    71    76    81    84    77
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    37    44    53    63    72    79    84    89

SHEAR (KTS)        5     8     3     3     7     2     3     6    12     7    13    10    10
SHEAR DIR        212   213   272    26    80   246    33     1    73    76   102   180   192
SST (C)         27.9  28.0  28.0  28.1  28.2  28.3  28.3  28.3  28.5  28.6  28.7  28.8  28.8
POT. INT. (KT)   136   137   137   139   140   143   143   143   146   147   148   150   149
ADJ. POT. INT.   136   134   135   138   140   144   145   144   147   146   146   146   145
200 MB T (C)   -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10    10    10    10    11    11    11    11    12    13    13
700-500 MB RH     60    58    61    57    54    55    51    54    50    50    49    47    44
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    59    66    73    74    61    33    18    30    16    12    10     7    -9
200 MB DIV        35    34    26     7    12    26    -7     6     1    -2     8     0    -9
LAND (KM)       1270  1207  1146  1081  1027   933   872   636   544   358   122    88    -6
LAT (DEG N)     12.5  12.6  12.7  12.9  13.1  13.4  14.1  14.8  15.6  16.2  16.9  17.3  17.7
LONG(DEG W)     43.5  44.6  45.6  46.8  48.0  50.6  53.7  56.8  60.0  63.1  66.0  68.7  71.4
STM SPEED (KT)    13    10    11    12    12    14    15    15    16    15    14    13    13
HEAT CONTENT      24    28    39    43    46    59    59    66    61    72    76    86    84

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15      CX,CY: -14/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  677  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  17.8 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  55.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   5.  11.  18.  23.  28.  32.  35.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   3.   4.   6.   9.  11.  14.  13.  13.  12.  12.  11.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   8.  12.  21.  31.  42.  47.  53.  58.  61.  65.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   6.  10.  14.  23.  32.  42.  46.  51.  56.  59.  62.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 08/20/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.2 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  22.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 111.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  68.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  36.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    28% is   2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    16% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 08/20/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY     

[Wx_Warrior]

From my understanding, that would be Hanna!

[HURAKAN]

From my understanding, that would be Hanna!

What happened to Gustav?

[Gustywind]

Models keep going more and more west.

801
WHXX01 KWBC 201833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080820 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080820 1800 080821 0600 080821 1800 080822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 43.5W 13.4N 46.2W 14.7N 49.1W 15.8N 52.3W
BAMD 12.5N 43.5W 12.9N 45.1W 13.4N 47.3W 14.1N 49.9W
BAMM 12.5N 43.5W 12.7N 45.6W 13.1N 48.0W 13.4N 50.6W
LBAR 12.5N 43.5W 12.7N 45.8W 13.4N 48.7W 14.2N 51.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080822 1800 080823 1800 080824 1800 080825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 56.1W 20.5N 63.1W 23.9N 67.9W 26.4N 68.8W
BAMD 14.7N 52.5W 15.7N 58.6W 17.0N 64.9W 18.4N 70.1W
BAMM 14.1N 53.7W 15.6N 60.0W 16.9N 66.0W 17.7N 71.4W
LBAR 15.5N 55.1W 18.5N 62.1W 21.9N 66.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 87KTS
DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 43.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 37.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Close to the Leewards Islands ( Guadeloupe) or just south near Dominica's channel, on this Cycloneye, not good news on this run, whereas we're a bit far away from a TD today, let's hope nothing more on that, but the probable path ( if 94L could be as a TD status first!) does not seems so pleasant for us in the islands as we're definitely approaching the heart of the season! Bear watching....

[Gustywind]

From my understanding, that would be Hanna!

Seems that you're a little faster than Usain Bolt or maybe a mistake i tkink, humm that would be Gustav in second place for a silver medal i tkink ! Excuse me olympics spirit.

[gtalum]

Did somebody say bears watching?

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...You are right...I'm all over the place today.

[Scorpion]

Wow, Euro shows an absolutely massive storm.

[KWT]

Looks like it develops the feature to the SE of 94L rather than 94L Scorpion.

Certainly is a big storm though!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Gustav is the one the Euro is picking up on in about a week. It's located in the far eastern Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

LOL...You are right...I'm all over the place today.

I've noticied that i give you the medal of the Warrior

[HURRICANELONNY]

What would be the invest # S.E. of 94L?

[mascpa]

Its not an invest yet, more of an area of interest, if you will

[Javlin]

I dont know but I dont think what the EURO shows south of Cuba is 94L,am I right about that?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

That Luis would have everyone in a panic if it came to fruitation.Seriously a big boy there!!I would have to add if it stays that low the ULL's that have been about would or should not be that much a problem but to aid in ventilation.

[cycloneye]

SHIP keeps bullish in this 00:00 UTC run.Caribbean bound.


WHXX01 KWBC 210046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC THU AUG 21 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080821 0000 080821 1200 080822 0000 080822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 43.9W 12.9N 46.4W 13.9N 49.0W 15.0N 52.2W
BAMD 12.0N 43.9W 12.2N 45.8W 12.5N 48.3W 13.0N 51.1W
BAMM 12.0N 43.9W 12.3N 45.8W 12.8N 48.0W 13.4N 50.8W
LBAR 12.0N 43.9W 12.4N 46.1W 13.4N 48.9W 14.3N 51.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080823 0000 080824 0000 080825 0000 080826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 55.2W 18.4N 61.5W 20.8N 66.5W 22.0N 69.5W
BAMD 13.5N 54.1W 14.5N 60.7W 15.9N 66.9W 17.3N 72.3W
BAMM 14.1N 53.7W 15.5N 59.4W 16.6N 64.6W 16.9N 69.4W
LBAR 15.7N 55.1W 18.9N 61.9W 22.3N 65.8W 22.6N 67.1W
SHIP 57KTS 71KTS 79KTS 85KTS
DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 79KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 43.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 41.8W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 39.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$