Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[jlauderdal]

wow... the euro with the first system, 92L i assume moving towards the carolinas with the second system in the wings... this is gonna be very interesting



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

it will be interesting to see in a few days how far off the models are from today

[cycloneye]

Anyone knows if NOGAPS continues silent?

[Meso]

I've noticed that the NOGAPS is probably useless when it comes to storms, at least the graphics version... It has really really low resolution and shows cat 3 storms as +995mb tropical storms majority of the time..I don't know if a pro-met could vouch for that.But it's something that I've picked up while watching model runs time and time again

[canetracker]

For what its worth, hear is the NOGAPS, you have to put it on 850mb resolution to really see anything.
850mb:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2008081012&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
sea level:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2008081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[x-y-no]

12Z Euro SLP and 500mb heights:

4 days:



5 days:



6 days:



7 days:

[Honeyko]

Outside of looking for shear down the road, I'd stuff all those things in a trunk -- and just watch the wide-out VIS loops for the cues on where it's going.

[KWT]

Very interesting ECM, takes it through the storm killer chain of islands before finally clearing them and developing quite well...seems pretty reasonable though I still can't see why the models take it so quickly to the WNW/NW in the next 72hrs or so.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I love these maps XYNo...You used to post then all the time...They used to play out very accurately...

[Honeyko]

I love these maps XYNo...You used to post then all the time...They used to play out very accurately...

I doubt they will this time. Look at that SAL to the north of 92: It's a freakin' brick wall. If 92 attempts to go NW, it'll be undercut and have its LLC stripped.

[cycloneye]

SHIP shear and sst forecast.Shear not a big problem.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/10/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    35    38    47    55    62    69    74    78    80    82
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    35    38    47    55    62    69    74    78    80    82
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    36    43    49    57    66    77    87    94

SHEAR (KTS)        8    10     7     6     7     9    14     6    10     1     4     9     4
SHEAR DIR         80    98    82    68    61    82   101   125   100   270   128   273   312
SST (C)         27.8  27.9  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.1  28.0  28.0  28.1  28.3  28.6  28.7  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   135   135   136   136   136   138   137   138   140   142   147   148   148
ADJ. POT. INT.   137   133   133   133   132   135   135   137   138   140   144   145   143
200 MB T (C)   -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10    10    10    10    10    10    10    10    10    10    11    11
700-500 MB RH     63    57    64    59    58    61    59    57    54    51    55    53    54
GFS VTEX (KT)     10     8     9     8     8     8     9     9     8     7     7     6     5
850 MB ENV VOR    88    80    65    55    49    38    29    30    28    10    12     5     0
200 MB DIV        -6    -1     5     4    29    48    41    42    29     9    10     3     0
LAND (KM)       1049  1018   991   976   961   933   929   901   760   683   421   106    69
LAT (DEG N)     10.7  11.1  11.4  11.8  12.2  12.8  13.6  14.5  15.8  16.6  17.5  18.2  19.0
LONG(DEG W)     44.5  45.4  46.2  47.0  47.7  49.3  51.2  53.6  56.2  58.9  61.8  64.7  67.6
STM SPEED (KT)    13     9     9     8     8     9    11    13    14    14    14    14    14
HEAT CONTENT      36    38    33    39    43    44    45    50    59    53    49    54    68

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16      CX,CY: -15/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  349  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  21.1 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  80.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   1.   5.  10.  16.  21.  26.  30.  33.  35.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   6.   6.   7.   8.   9.   9.  10.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.   7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   5.   4.   6.   7.   6.   6.   5.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   8.  11.  20.  29.  37.  45.  52.  56.  58.  59.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   6.  10.  13.  22.  30.  37.  44.  49.  53.  55.  57.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008     INVEST 08/10/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   6.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 108.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.6 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.2 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  37.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    23% is   1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    14% is   1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     8% is   1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008     INVEST 08/10/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY   

[x-y-no]

Outside of looking for shear down the road, I'd stuff all those things in a trunk -- and just watch the wide-out VIS loops for the cues on where it's going.

Well I don't quite agree with that. There are some interesting synoptic issues to watch. In particular, what the globals are doing with the mid-level ridge in the week timeframe. As you see, the euro breaks it down just in time to let our system turn north before reaching Florida. The CMC keeps it strong enough to steer the system west at the end of the period. The GFS is closer to the euro. I'm no big fan of the CMC, but the known tendency of the GFS to break down ridges too fast is discomforting. Thus it's good (from Florida's point of view, not the Carolinas) to see the euro doing it too.

At any rate, more is learned by watching the trends run to run.

[KWT]

Well shear and SST's look pretty good for development its just a case of watching to see if it does go on to actually do something.

Personally I'm not sure if I can relasly believe the WNw/NW jog the models have in the 24-72hrs time range but we shall see.

[x-y-no]

I love these maps XYNo...You used to post then all the time...They used to play out very accurately...

I doubt they will this time. Look at that SAL to the north of 92: It's a freakin' brick wall. If 92 attempts to go NW, it'll be undercut and have its LLC stripped.

I'm not convinced SAL is much of an issue for this system. Sure there's dry air to the north and northwest, but everything is tracking westward and this has a healthy envelope of moisture ahead of it. And most important - there's no pulse of dry air approaching from the east of the system, which is usually the killer.

[Nimbus]

We still don't know whether this will pass north or south of Puerto Rico that is an important near term forecast question.

The longer this storm takes to stack up the further west it is likely to get without gaining much latitude.

I still think this may spin up slowly travel wwnw and be more of a threat to Jamaica and Haiti.

Could someone in the know please explain why the models have a storm down near 11n moving almost NW so soon?

[KWT]

Thats the issue I'm having as well Nimbus the rest of the track forecast seems quite logical but for it to climb that much in terms of lattiude would suggest a weakness is close by surely?

[x-y-no]

I still think this may spin up slowly travel wwnw and be more of a threat to Jamaica and Haiti.

That's more or less my thinking too. Maybe not Jamaica, but left of the current model tracks anyway.

Could someone in the know please explain why the models have a storm down near 11n moving almost NW so soon?

Not sure exactly why, but it's a common phenomenon anyway. Watch the synoptics, look at what the models are doing at the mid and upper levels too, and decide if you think it makes sense.

[Ivanhater]

It is important to note, the GFS has been flipping back and forth on the strength of the ridge, some going into the GOM, other the eastcoast, with the GFS breaking ridges down to fast, Im leaning towards a stronger ridge, also with this not dveloping so quickly and the models turning north to fast , something to keep in mind...

[Honeyko]

I love these maps XYNo...You used to post then all the time...They used to play out very accurately...

I doubt they will this time. Look at that SAL to the north of 92: It's a freakin' brick wall. If 92 attempts to go NW, it'll be undercut and have its LLC stripped.

I'm not convinced SAL is much of an issue for this system. Sure there's dry air to the north and northwest, but everything is tracking westward and this has a healthy envelope of moisture ahead of it. And most important - there's no pulse of dry air approaching from the east of the system, which is usually the killer.

I was concerned with the directional effects of the SAL, not inhibiting effects.

==//==

I've made a forecast challenge for 92L.

[Ivanhater]

[Mecklenburg]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Canadian has what appears to be a major hurricane for this system heading generally toward SF

and it looks like something is following on it's heels too