ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Sanibel]

I was going to post this morning that this seemed to be a lingering stationary trough that was curling up. Now it really settled the issue.

[weatherguru18]

What's the ETA looking like? Seems like Tuesday would be the day for the Texas coast. Anybody?

[paintplaye]

does anyone have a link to the steering currents?

[RL3AO]

does anyone have a link to the steering currents?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

[paintplaye]

does anyone have a link to the steering currents?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

Thank you

[LaBreeze]

The general belief is that this system will make it all the way to TX, correct? I'm in SW LA, and I'm not going to let my guard down. Too many times we have had a turn at the last moment, although I do understand that the models are pointing toward TX. I guess we might get some rainfall out of it here. Does anyone see this system doing anything different? Just asking.

[CajunMama]

I'm in vegas...where it's hot & dry. I get a text message from frack about the invest. Where is this little booger supposed to be on tuesday? We change planes in houston & land in NO. (no maps or links please...just a simple explanation)

[weatherrabbit_tx]

so if this system would ever get stronger as to per say cat. 1 or 2, it would have trend more poleward...not say it would, however, a possilbly...

[LaBreeze]

Which is most reliable to most of you out there, BAMM, BAMD, or LBAR?

[fasterdisaster]

I'm shocked this isn't a depression yet, it looks fantastic.

[RL3AO]

I'm in vegas...where it's hot & dry. I get a text message from frack about the invest. Where is this little booger supposed to be on tuesday? We change planes in houston & land in NO. (no maps or links please...just a simple explanation)

1. Derek Ortt is watching it closely.
2. The models seem to want to bring a weak low into SE Texas in three or four days.
3. Recon scheduled for tomorrow.
4. You know what can happen when you give something three days over the GOM.

[LaBreeze]

True RL3AO. You never turn your back to the water.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

4. You know what can happen when you give something three days over the GOM.

thats soooo true!! this time of the year....I cant believe my weatherstation is showing 106!

[RL3AO]

Which is most reliable to most of you out there, BAMM, BAMD, or LBAR?

If you take a map of the Western Hemisphere and have a monkey randomly throw a dart at the map, it will probably be more accurate than the LBAR.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm shocked this isn't a depression yet, it looks fantastic.

Doesn't have East winds North of the apparent center...

[LaBreeze]

What about BAMM and BAMD?

[paintplaye]

so if this system would ever get stronger as to per say cat. 1 or 2, it would have trend more poleward...not say it would, however, a possilbly...

Yes but usually for stronger storms that happens. I can't see more than a cat 1 or MAYBE a 2 at this point. I mean yes anything could happen but I don't think that it will. Plus this season the steering currents have been pretty strong.

[fasterdisaster]

Haha agreed RL3AO. I personally prefer BAMD over BAMM but BAMM has its good days too.

[MiamiensisWx]

so if this system would ever get stronger as to per say cat. 1 or 2, it would have trend more poleward...not say it would, however, a possilbly...

Yes but usually for stronger storms that happens. I can't see more than a cat 1 or MAYBE a 2 at this point. I mean yes anything could happen but I don't think that it will. Plus this season the steering currents have been pretty strong.

Based on the strength of the ridge at H5 over the next several days, even a deeper TC would not display a northward movement. If the ridging is strong at the mid/upper levels, a deeper TC will not trend northward. However, a weaker and shallower TC would be influenced by the LL steering and may turn slightly further north (depending on factors at the low levels), but it would not be significant in this case. Ultimately, if this system is deeper (i.e. strong TS/Cat 1), it would be increasingly influenced by the mid/upper levels and display a more pronounced west movement.

[SouthFloridawx]

Which is most reliable to most of you out there, BAMM, BAMD, or LBAR?

My personal favorite is the EXTRAP model.