ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[storms in NC]

Not much of a Northly drift in that loop.

Not moving from the looks of there but it is radar.

[Chacor]

AL, 96, 2008071800, , BEST, 0, 308N, 804W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[brunota2003]

Pressure is down a millibar, according to the best track? 1014 to 1013?

[Stormtrack03]

The following are tidbits from the CHS Area Forecast Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
727 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE FL COAST THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. THIS CREATES A
WHOPPING MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN
ALTHOUGH A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS MOST LIKELY. AXIS OF STRONGEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD DRIFT N DURING THE DAY WHILE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND BEGINS TO SLOWLY ERODE.

...

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME DEPENDS
ENTIRELY ON THE EVOLUTION/POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED. FOR THIS PACKAGE...SCENARIO WILL FAVOR
SLOW BUT STEADY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW...AS INDICATED BY 12Z
MODEL/MANUAL GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA SOUTH THROUGH COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA.
SATURDAY...RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PROBABLY LINGER THERE.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY..

[OuterBanker]

Well, I can relax now. Just watched a bit of TWC and they are saying that they don't expect it to become a named storm.

Let's see JB or TWC. I'll take TWC tonight, I'll sleep better (got one of those nasty summer colds).

[Extremeweatherguy]

The low center looks to be situated just east of the Jacksonville, FL area at this time and is either stationary or possibly drifting slightly west...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

...If this slow west drift continues, then the low may try to slide inland before it gets a chance to really develop.

[RL3AO]

Well, I can relax now. Just watched a bit of TWC and they are saying that they don't expect it to become a named storm.

Let's see JB or TWC. I'll take TWC tonight, I'll sleep better (got one of those nasty summer colds).

So the NHC is doesn't matter?

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...ESPECIALLY IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE...AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST.

[orion]

I've got radar loop superimposed on sat image of this area running on my site for those interested...

http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

I will update the radar site as needed to follow the system.

[storms in NC]

Well, I can relax now. Just watched a bit of TWC and they are saying that they don't expect it to become a named storm.

Let's see JB or TWC. I'll take TWC tonight, I'll sleep better (got one of those nasty summer colds).

I just went and read and watched the weather from the TV news around here wral wect and News 9 and they are all down playing this. So it must be so OuterBanks. But keep a eye out any ways there.

[HURAKAN]

I've got radar loop superimposed on sat image of this area running on my site for those interested...

http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

I will update the radar site as needed to follow the system.

Looks great.

bad news/good news

very close to land/Gulf Stream

[vacanechaser]

Well, I can relax now. Just watched a bit of TWC and they are saying that they don't expect it to become a named storm.

Let's see JB or TWC. I'll take TWC tonight, I'll sleep better (got one of those nasty summer colds).

when was the last time the twc got anything right????? we will see, but i would not take it to heart right now... just my opinion..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[brunota2003]

I've got radar loop superimposed on sat image of this area running on my site for those interested...

http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

I will update the radar site as needed to follow the system.

Looks great.

bad news/good news

very close to land/Gulf Stream

I think you have that reversed

[HURAKAN]

I think you have that reversed

Development-wise!!

[vacanechaser]

reminds me of alex in '04....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[orion]

reminds me of alex in '04....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yeah, you're right, Alex hung around in that same location for a bit then skirted up the outer banks as a cat 2 I think.

[OuterBanker]

I was being facetious of course. TWC is sad now going for appearance first and weather (it seems) last.
I remember when the weather channel was actually about weather, not ratings.

[vacanechaser]

reminds me of alex in '04....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yeah, you're right, Alex hung around in that same location for a bit then skirted up the outer banks as a cat 2 I think.

yeeeper, you are right a cat 2... we were there covering that system as it moved just to our east... had a wind gust to 102mph as it passed by... here is a link to my write up and photos and video of alex...

http://www.vastormphoto.com/alex2004.htm



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

I was being facetious of course. TWC is sad now going for appearance first and weather (it seems) last.
I remember when the weather channel was actually about weather, not ratings.

lol.. ok, hard to read facetiousness in a post sometimes.... lol...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[OuterBanker]

Yes, Orion. Cat 2 from TS in 30hrs. Recorded wind gust Ocracoke Island 122. Ocracoke and Hatteras Island in eyewall and hurricane conditions for several hours, but eye itself never crossed land so not considered a land falling hurricane. Also remember it was 04, so Alex was forgotten because of all the other land falling hurricanes.

No one is saying another Alex though.

[vacanechaser]

Yes, Orion. Cat 2 from TS in 30hrs. Recorded wind gust Ocracoke Island 122. Ocracoke and Hatteras Island in eyewall and hurricane conditions for several hours, but eye itself never crossed land so not considered a land falling hurricane. Also remember it was 04, so Alex was forgotten because of all the other land falling hurricanes.

No one is saying another Alex though.

eye did cross the coast, but not considered a landfall because center of lowest pressure did not cross.... here is a radar image of the system to my north as the extreme western eyewall and eye crossed the coast






Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team