EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even with that score, the Atlantic is kicking the living hell out of the Eastern pacific ACE wise.

[cycloneye]

Sandy,how is the EPAC in terms of ACE?

[HURAKAN]

Sandy,how is the EPAC in terms of ACE?

ACE BATTLE

ATLANTIC: 18.5075 (2 storms)

EPAC: 9.9975 (5 storms)

[cycloneye]

Sandy,how is the EPAC in terms of ACE?

ACE BATTLE

ATLANTIC: 18.5075 (2 storms)

EPAC: 9.9975 (5 storms)

Wow,the atlantic is ramping it up rapidly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Let me like the t.v people on November 4th like to declare winners, just declare the Atlantic the winner!!! why I think so, it is because this is likely to be a very good cape verde season. That is good reason to take a risk in bet on the Atlantic.

IF we get a Ivan this year the pacific will be dead before it hits the ground.

It is like putting a house cat against a tiger!

[Chacor]

028
WTPZ31 KNHC 130232
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...ELIDA STRENGTHENING...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 255
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
ELIDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...101.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

[Chacor]

WTPZ41 KNHC 130234
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH ASSOCIATED -80C CLOUD TOPS. THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL OF A
2338Z SSMI OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN PINPOINTING THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER...JUST UNDER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CDO.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND
45 KT RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE CANOPY AND
A COMPROMISE OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HAMPERING THE
CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING
NOW...WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. THIS MATCHES A
CONSENSUS OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...HWRF...AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...A WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS ELIDA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/14...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AN ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO. NO
MAJOR TRACK CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DERIVED FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.4N 101.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 15.3N 103.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 16.8N 107.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 17.2N 109.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 112.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 17.5N 118.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130832
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND ALSO ALONG THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...WHERE
THE OUTFLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST IMPROVED. HOWEVER...THERE
STILL SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR TO POSITION THE SURFACE
CENTER JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
CANOPY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH
AGENCIES...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24
HOURS...USING A BLEND OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...HWRF...AND THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. AFTER A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT AROUND THE 36
HOUR PERIOD...A WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS ELIDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS WERE WEIGHTED
HEAVILY IN ESTIMATING THE INITIAL MOTION AT 290/14. ELIDA CONTINUES
TO TRACK WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A
ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO. A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH SITUATED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT WESTWARD TO A POSITION ALONG 130W IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO BUILD WESTWARD
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS...PROMPTING ELIDA TO
TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE EUROPEAN GLOBAL
MODELS...GFDL...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 14.8N 103.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 15.6N 104.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 16.3N 106.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 16.8N 108.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 17.1N 110.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Chacor]

901
WTPZ41 KNHC 131434
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG BURSTING PATTERN NEAR
THE CENTER OF ELIDA WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED.
OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVERNIGHT...
WITH INCREASING OUTFLOW NOTED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE UNCHANGED...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 55
KT. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO ALLOW ONLY SLOW
INTENSIFICATION...AND THAT GENERAL IDEA IS REFLECTED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. SSTS BEGIN TO COOL BELOW 80F AFTER 36 HR...SO
A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL DATA SUGGEST ELIDA CONTINUES MOVING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...ABOUT 290/13. MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITSELF TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WESTWARD TURN APPEARS LIKELY AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AND THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 15.2N 104.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.9N 106.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 111.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 17.5N 119.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

Elida is looking good IMO, strengthening is only slow but there is some deep convection and what looks to be a pretty powerful feeder band to its SW.

[HURAKAN]

Most of the convection looks to be over the southern hemisphere of the storm which could indicate some northern shear.

[HURAKAN]

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...15.2 N...104.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

Look in the image where the 15ºN latitude line is located and where the convection is in comparison to the center.

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan the center looks to be right under that little convective burst, lets see if that burst expands any more.

[Thunder44]

Don't forget the contest for Elida. 5pm today is your last chance to enter:

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=101793&p=1735087#p1735087

[RL3AO]

023
WHXX01 KMIA 131844
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA (EP062008) 20080713 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 1800 080714 0600 080714 1800 080715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 104.7W 16.3N 106.2W 17.1N 108.1W 17.8N 110.1W
BAMD 15.4N 104.7W 16.1N 107.0W 16.8N 109.4W 17.5N 112.0W
BAMM 15.4N 104.7W 16.3N 106.7W 17.1N 108.9W 17.8N 111.4W
LBAR 15.4N 104.7W 16.3N 107.1W 17.3N 109.7W 18.5N 112.8W
SHIP 55KTS 56KTS 58KTS 58KTS
DSHP 55KTS 56KTS 58KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 1800 080716 1800 080717 1800 080718 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 112.7W 18.2N 118.9W 17.4N 125.2W 16.2N 130.7W
BAMD 18.2N 114.9W 19.6N 121.3W 20.8N 126.8W 21.7N 130.1W
BAMM 18.4N 114.4W 19.3N 121.1W 20.0N 127.6W 20.7N 132.3W
LBAR 19.5N 116.0W 22.0N 122.3W 25.2N 126.7W 25.4N 128.3W
SHIP 58KTS 56KTS 49KTS 45KTS
DSHP 58KTS 56KTS 49KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 104.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 102.4W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 99.6W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

345
WTPZ31 KNHC 132034
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

...ELIDA MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 585
MILES...945 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT TURN
TOWARD THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ELIDA COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE DAYS.

MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

507
WTPZ41 KNHC 132035
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

THE STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION OVER ELIDA TEMPORARILY ABATED A FEW
HOURS AGO BEFORE RESUMING NEAR THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE
CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM BURST WITH
NO SIGNS OF AN EYEWALL FORMING. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT. ELIDA
HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT WITH WARM WATER AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
TO BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT
THE STORM WILL FALL JUST SHY OF BECOMING A HURRICANE OR EVEN START
TO WEAKEN SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY HIGHER THAN MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE INITIALLY...SHOWING THE STORM FLIRTING WITH
HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND THEN END UP CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

ELIDA REMAINS ON TRACK...290/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
REASONING WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE UKMET SHOWS THE WEAKEST RIDGE...ALLOWING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
GFS TURNS ELIDA ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WESTWARD...PERHAPS DUE TO A
RATHER WEAK INITIAL VORTEX IN THE MODEL. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
BE NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.6N 105.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 17.0N 117.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 125.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

Got some deep convection once again over the storm as of now, I think if its going to become a hurricane its going to need to do it pretty soon as the NHC forecast discussion mentions.

[HURAKAN]

[bob rulz]

It looks like the organization and banding of this storm have improved over the last few hours. I'm guessing it will be at least 70mph at the next advisory.

[KWT]

Yep they may well push it upto 60kts next advisory because it does seem to have wrapped around a little better recently.