TC Bertha

[gatorcane]

Indeed this weakening of convection is fully inline with my projected forecast for this invest that I posted earlier in this thread. Development is possible but should be slow to occur and will allow it to stay on a generally west course. I do agree with hyperstorm about the possible WSW dip due to the relatively south position of the ITCZ.

[NDG]

Remember that convection also weakened about this same time yesterday, remember that is close to 4 PM near the African coast, about the normal time that tropical convection starts weakening over water in a weak system, it should start refiring later on this afternoon (our time)

[Brent]

When are one of the pro-mets or approved amateurs going to belly up to the bar and start a thread in the tropical analysis section on 92L?


Thanks.

Ed

This NRL wv image should help to break the ice.

Looks really good.

[lebron23]

anyone know what that X is??


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif


is that invest 92? the X

[gatorcane]

I do not expect a big resurgence of convection for two reasons: 1) SSTs are warm enough to support tropical development but not for explosive convection and 2) SAL is lingering. I expect the convection to gradually weaken with small bursts around the surface low just enough to keep it going for the next couple of days as it moves generally westward.

Lebron 23 it IS invest 92L. That graphic was posted much higher up in the thread.

[Kennethb]

When I check my calendar, it is only July 1, so I expect 92L to fizzle as most waves do before August.

However, should it develop as some models do, it could be an indication of an above normal season that has been predicted.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just watched Bastardi's "Big Dog".


JB is predicting "wailing and gnashing of teeth" for the SE US in about 10 days with 92L, which he predicts will be Bertha.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just watched Bastardi's "Big Dog".


JB is predicting "wailing and gnashing of teeth" for the SE US in about 10 days with 92L, which he predicts will be Bertha.

I just watched that too and was about to post the same thing. Definitely an interesting scenario if it plays out. The area he circled (near the bahamas), showing where he thinks the system could be in 7-10 days, would be a location that would make quite a few people from Florida to the Carolinas pretty nervous.

[gatorcane]

No offense to JB but I don't know how anybody can make such a prediction at this time. For one thing it may start to cause some unnecessary worrying for folks along the SE Coast of the US. In fact I am more inclined to say 92L won't even develop at all at this point.

Can you provide a link please?

[Stratosphere747]

Just watched Bastardi's "Big Dog".


JB is predicting "wailing and gnashing of teeth" for the SE US in about 10 days with 92L, which he predicts will be Bertha.

Half the board will have a birthday by the time this possibly makes it across the Atlantic.

Good ol JB.

*Woof, Woof*

[RL3AO]

Just watched Bastardi's "Big Dog".


JB is predicting "wailing and gnashing of teeth" for the SE US in about 10 days with 92L, which he predicts will be Bertha.

And people say Klotzbach and Gray over hype and scare.

[Stratosphere747]

Can you provide a link please?

It's PPV.

[NDG]

Good ole' JB, needs ratings bad!

[canegrl04]

Just watched Bastardi's "Big Dog".


JB is predicting "wailing and gnashing of teeth" for the SE US in about 10 days with 92L, which he predicts will be Bertha.

Here we go

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, JB has a degree from Penn State, and AccuWx pays him, making him a professional met.


He'll either be right, close but no cigar, or flat out wrong. 12Z GFS says flat out wrong. So I predict JB has a 33.33% chance of being right. Or, we shall see what we shall see.*


Disclaimer: Above bold prediction is not an official forecast, nor is it endorsed by Storm2K.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still find it funny how people like to bash JB so often. Overall, he is pretty good in the long range stuff. Yes, he does over-hype things and his videos can be a bit weird at times, but he is not really all that bad of a forecaster. Basically you have to take what he says and scale it down in your own mind to reduce the hype and come up with a realistic scenario based off of his fairly good analysis of the overall situation. His teleconnection and pattern recognition is excellent, and while his finer details may be a bit off, I think he is definitely someone worth listening to. I probably wouldn't use JB as my only source on a meteorological issue, but as a piece of the entire puzzle of ideas and viewpoints he is definitely valuable (IMO).

[gatorcane]

Well, JB has a degree from Penn State, and AccuWx pays him, making him a professional met.


He'll either be right, close but no cigar, or flat out wrong. 12Z GFS says flat out wrong. So I predict JB has a 33.33% chance of being right. Or, we shall see what we shall see.*


Disclaimer: Above bold prediction is not an official forecast, nor is it endorsed by Storm2K.

To his defense, GFS could very easily shift west over the next couple of runs also. The CMC is already very west.

[SouthFloridawx]

I second that woof woof.

[Stratosphere747]

Well, JB has a degree from Penn State, and AccuWx pays him, making him a professional met.


He'll either be right, close but no cigar, or flat out wrong. 12Z GFS says flat out wrong. So I predict JB has a 33.33% chance of being right. Or, we shall see what we shall see.*


Disclaimer: Above bold prediction is not an official forecast, nor is it endorsed by Storm2K.

It's PPV so he target audience gets exactly what many of them want. He is always a heated topic throughout the season, but unless it's something he has said in public or openly on Accuweather it's nothing that can really be debated in here....

[HURAKAN]