WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

[senorpepr]

Here's an interesting observation from the above surface map:

AAXX 20031 98558 21440 83017 10245 20241 49898 58011 78082 8492/ 222// 20202 333 56899 60037 84915 88457;

That's from Guiuan, Philippines at 20/03Z
Visbility is 4km with light rainshowers
Winds are 300° at 33KT
Temperature is 24.5°C
Dewpoint is 24.1°C
Pressure is 989.8 hPa; over the past 3-hours the pressure has rose, then fell for a net loss of 1.1 hPa
Skies are 4/8 cumulonimbus at 1500ft, 8/8 altostratus at 7000ft

[Aslkahuna]

Latest from Borongan shows 10 min winds of 24 mph while Guinan has 38 mph winds and Tacloban WNW winds at 45 mph-all are 10 min averages.

Steve

[senorpepr]

06Z plots...



A couple of goodies in terms of obs...

First is a ship at 12.2N 127.1E (I don't have the raw ob easily accessable...)
Visbility is 10km
Winds are 130° at 32KT
Temperature is 28.5°C
Dewpoint is 23.7°C
Pressure is 1002.9 hPa; over the past 3-hours the pressure has fallen, and then steadied, for a net loss of 0.6 hPa
Skies are stratocumulus at 1000ft with altostatus. Total coverage 6/8

Finally, our friends in Guiuan have a 06Z observation...
AAXX 20061 98558 11420 82034 10241 20240 49941 52043 60271 76366 8492/ 222// 20303 333 56499 84915 88457;

Visbility is 2km with moderate rainshowers
Winds are 200° at 66KT
Temperature is 24.1°C
Dewpoint is 24.0°C
Pressure is 994.1 hPa; over the past 3-hours the pressure has rose, for a net gain of 4.3 hPa
Total precipitation over the past 6 hours is 27mm or 1.06"
Skies are 4/8 cumulonimbus at 1500ft (clouds drifting south), 8/8 altostratus at 7000ft
3-second Period of waves: 1.5m / 5ft

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 11.5N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 160NM WEST 140NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 13.0N 122.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 220600UTC 15.7N 122.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 230600UTC 18.4N 121.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[Chacor]

台风风神 is up to T5.0:
TCNA21 RJTD 201200
CCAA 20120 47644 FENGSHEN(0806) 09120 11241 12344 250// 92913=

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 12.0N 124.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 160NM WEST 140NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 14.1N 122.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 221200UTC 16.9N 122.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 231200UTC 19.4N 121.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Chacor]

Landfall occurred a while ago.

[Chacor]

JTWC is going for a 70-80kt direct hit on Manila.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Bloody hell.

[wxmann_91]

Wow, this went really far west. I don't think anybody expected this. Makes you wonder how prepared the Philippines were for this storm.

[senorpepr]

Wow, this went really far west. I don't think anybody expected this. Makes you wonder how prepared the Philippines were for this storm.

They weren't completely in the dark. It's has been all over the news for a couple of days prior. As for getting to shelter... there really isn't a lot of shelter there to begin with, so I'd assume most folks rode out the storm.

On a side note, my in-laws are about 125-150mi SW of the eye. We haven't had the chance to speak with them yet, although looking at the observations, it appears they were fine. The highest wind they reported was 2 m/s (4KT), with about 55mm (2.17") of total precipitation.

[P.K.]

T5.5 at 1800 from RSMC Tokyo up from T5.0 six hours ago.

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive.

[P.K.]

Up to 80kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 11.8N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 160NM WEST 140NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 14.5N 121.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 221800UTC 17.3N 121.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 231800UTC 19.8N 120.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[HURAKAN]

Eye coming out again.

[senorpepr]

More observations...


Tagbilaran (AAXX 20181 98644 11458 82404 10255 20243 40025 58024 60061 70262 8682/ 333 56599 86817 88457;)
Visbility is 5.8km with recent rain
Winds are 240° at 8KT
Temperature is 25.5°C
Dewpoint is 24.3°C
Pressure is 1002.5 hPa; over the past 3-hours the pressure has rose and then fell, for a net loss of 2.4 hPa
Total precipitation over the past 6 hours is 6mm or 0.24" (Storm total: 55mm/2.17")
Skies are 6/8 cumulus and stratocumulus at 1700ft (clouds drifting southeast), 8/8 altostratus at 7000ft

Mactan 98646 (AAXX 20181 98646 11560 82210 10248 20237 40018 58007 60091 76066 8482/ 333 56599 84820 88458;)
Visbility is 6km with intermittent light rain
Winds are 220° at 19KT
Temperature is 24.8°C
Dewpoint is 23.7°C
Pressure is 1001.8 hPa; over the past 3-hours the pressure has rose and then fell, for a net loss of 0.7 hPa
Total precipitation over the past 6 hours is 9mm or 0.35" (Storm total: 90mm/3.54")
Skies are 4/8 cumulus and stratocumulus at 2000ft (clouds drifting southeast), 8/8 altostratus at 8000ft

Iloilo 98637 (AAXX 20171 98637 41462 81608 10246 20214 40017 5//// 78088 8327/ 333 56999 83812 88358;)
Visbility is 6.2km with light rainshowers
Winds are 160° at 16KT
Temperature is 24.6°C
Dewpoint is 21.4°C
Pressure is 1001.7 hPa
Total precipitation over the past 6 hours was not available, but recorded storm total is at least 29mm/1.14"
Skies are 3/8 cumulus and stratocumulus at 1200ft, 8/8 altocumulus at 8000ft

Roxas 98538 (AAXX 20171 98538 41420 83615 10254 20235 40950 5//// 76266 8482/ 333 56889 84811 88456;)
Visbility is 2km with intermittent moderate rain
Winds are 360° at 29KT
Temperature is 25.4°C
Dewpoint is 23.5°C
Total precipitation over the past 6 hours was not available, but recorded storm total is at least 162mm/6.38"
Skies are 4/8 cumulus and stratocumulus at 1100ft (clouds drifting north), 8/8 altostratus at 6000ft (clouds drifting north)

Romblon 98536 (AAXX 20191 98536 41465 83608 10269 20244 49996 5//// 71322 8397/ 333 56899 83918 88357;)
Visbility is 6.5km with intermittent light rain
Winds are 360° at 16KT
Temperature is 26.9°C
Dewpoint is 24.4°C
Pressure is 999.6 hPa
Total precipitation over the past 6 hours was not available, but recorded storm total is at least 42mm/1.65"
Skies are 3/8 cumulonimbus at 1800ft (clouds drifting north), 8/8 altocumulus at 7000ft

[HURAKAN]

WOW, REALLY IMPRESSIVE.