ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

I think its probably just holding steady MiamiensisWx to be honest but its hard to say but yep the firction from land may wel lbe helping out the eyewall just a little bit briefly.

Still I think the general public didn't expect this to get as strong as it has.

[bob rulz]

I actually think it's intensifying. Eyewall convection is strengthening in most quadrants, and structure has been improving in latest radar frames. The TC actually looks much better now than the preceding 1.5 hours. Winds could mix more efficiently to the surface with the strengthening convection on the W side (W eyewall). Frictional convergence may be contributing to the development of additional convection on the west side. It looks like Dolly will come in as a strengthening Cat 2...

You must be seeing something most of us don't. There's not even any reds along the eyewall anymore, although I'll agree that the structure has improved. There's been a huge blow-up of convection out in the Gulf of Mexico to the east.

Let's just say it's a damn good thing this hurricane doesn't even have 6-12 more hours over water.

[MGC]

Just goes to show that you can't take tropical cyclones for granted. Last night around 1pm I posted that I thought Dolly had finished intensifying due to a couple of reasons. I figured I had missed my intensity forecast at landfall. Well, what a difference a day makes. Dolly decides to pull off some RI just before landfall. I'm microwaving the crow right now....MGC

[kurtpage]

WTH happen, this was suppose to go in this morning. And Brownsville was its target, has something new developed, do I need to get my butt home and start boarding up?

I saw "this should be making landfall soon" at 5am this morning...what time frame means "soon?"

I think it will make landfall within the next 90 minutes. Corpus Christi is probably in the clear in regards to hurricane force winds.

They will be getting some winds with some VERY stong gusts....

155930 2748N 09658W 6967 03164 0078 +078 +078 090037 037 027 004 00
160000 2747N 09700W 6966 03137 0057 +078 +078 092037 038 030 004 00

[jasons2k]

Think again, this storm is going to stay off shore for at least another 4 hours if not 16 hours as it continues to draw N and just might hit Corpus.

No way, no how.

If fact, it's wobbling west again and should be coming in real soon.

[Chacor]

KCRP 231603Z 03019G26KT 3SM TSRA BR SCT010 BKN026CB OVC060 23/22 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 04026/1557 OCNL LTGICCC OHD-NW-NE TS OHD-NW-NE MOV W P0000 PNO

KNGP 231556Z AUTO 04025G34KT 7SM -TSRA FEW070 24/23 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 04035/1541 SLP076 P0022 T02440228

Both readings from Corpus. Getting TS gusts.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well if they didn't board up or put shutters up, they will be in for a wild ride in their homes..and they better have their fingers crossed that no debris hits their windows. Most windows and buildings can withstand the strength of this storm, except for any wind driven debris.

It depends on the types of windows. TS winds with higher gusts can easily break glass jalousies. However, flying debris/projectiles is certainly a major factor in regards to structural damage as well. Note that the gusts are typically the most damaging feature of a TC (as opposed to the sustained winds). Regardless, the majority of people do not experience the very small radius of the maximum 1-min winds in a TC; in other words, in a Cat 2 with a similar wind radii to Dolly, the majority will experience TS winds. Areas within the inner core have a good chance to experience Cat 1 winds, especially near the coast. It is plausible that no one will experience the strongest (85 kt/Cat 2) sustained winds. Frictional effects reduce the overland winds further inland, especially in a slow moving system like Dolly. As I know from Wilma, 60/65 kt sustained winds with much higher gusts can be quite damaging to frail structures, and even staunch structures can receive damage from the flying debris.

...and Dolly is clearly moving NW toward an impending landfall.

[loro-rojo]

Could this storm continue to intensify over the barrier islands of Texas, once it makes its first landfall?

[MiamiensisWx]

Radar indicates intensification:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

Dolly's eyewall presentation has markedly improved per each radar image...

[HarlequinBoy]

1104 AM HURRICANE SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 26.08N 97.18W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

ALL POWER OUT TO ISLAND. DAMAGE TO CONDOS.

1104 AM HURRICANE PORT ISABEL 26.07N 97.22W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX PUBLIC

POWER LINES DOWN. SCATTERED FLOODING.

1104 AM HURRICANE HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN ON BUILDINGS.

1104 AM HURRICANE BROWNSVILLE 25.93N 97.48W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN. SCATTERED FLOODING. DEBRIS ON ROADWAYS.

[americanrebel]

I did not say it was going into Galveston Bay, just said don't count it out. You never know what a TC like this will do.

[RL3AO]

14nm east of Padre Island.

[kurtpage]

I think it will make landfall within the next 90 minutes. Corpus Christi is probably in the clear in regards to hurricane force winds.

They will be getting some winds with some VERY stong gusts....

155930 2748N 09658W 6967 03164 0078 +078 +078 090037 037 027 004 00
160000 2747N 09700W 6966 03137 0057 +078 +078 092037 038 030 004 00

Here is an image of the recon plane location for those readings...

[bob rulz]

Do we know if another special advisory is going to be issued before or right at landfall?

[HouTXmetro]

Think again, this storm is going to stay off shore for at least another 4 hours if not 16 hours as it continues to draw N and just might hit Corpus.

Now that is just -removed- hype.

Well he lives in LA. I'm not exactly sure how that is -removed-.

[lebron23]

yes at 12pm CDT

[Chacor]

Some helpful links if anyone wants to keep track of obs.

Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi Naval Air Station/Truax Field, TX
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KNGP.html

Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi International Airport, TX
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KCRP.html

Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KBRO.html

Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KHRL.html

Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KPIL.html

[MiamiensisWx]

N eyewall will affect southern half of Padre Island

Next center fix from reconnaissance mission (especially central pressure) will be interesting

[bob rulz]

yes at 12pm CDT

Ha, I guess I should actually read the thing at the bottom of each advisory, eh?

[loro-rojo]

Do we know if another special advisory is going to be issued before or right at landfall?

I believe a statement is always published when a hurricane makes landfall in the US, but I dont think it will be an advisory. IOW.. the statement will simply say the time and location of landfall.

If the landfall occurs at around 1pm.. the NHC might just wait for the intermediate advisory to confirm landfall.