ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[GeneratorPower]

You guys still looking for this become a TD today, are going to be disappointed. Give it another day to get it's act together.

That's right. He'll come along. Don't despair!

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 142021
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008


NOW...ONTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
OVER 40/41 WEST...ROUGHLY 1500 MILES ESE OF LOCAL AREA. THIS WAVE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FORM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ITS TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE
TRACK...HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF TRACK...APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT
SEAS WILL BE QUITE ROUGH THIS UPCOMING LOCAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

[HurricaneHunter914]

You guys still looking for this become a TD today, are going to be disappointed. Give it another day to get it's act together.

That's right. She'll come along. Don't despair!

You mean, "he'll" come along.

[mattpetre]

Cristobal is hiding in this system somewhere... that is unless the GOM does something drastic and this really is a "she." I believe the talk about convergence/divergence will be less skeptical before the days end. Should start popping storms around 5pm ET. Just an amateur guess based on unadulterated speculation. Or to use a term from last year a SWAG; although I'm not sure how scientific this one is.

[Derek Ortt]

Have to hand it to the guidance

it had a 1007-1010mb low forming followed by arrested development... and that seems to have been what occurred

[Blown Away]

Are we starting to get some covergence towards the center? Watch the loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

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[KWT]

Is it me or does the center look like its becoming a little more elongated again W-E?
Stillgot a chance of being TD but we need some convergence fairly soon if this is to do anything, if it does get that then it may strengthen quite decently.

[MGC]

Just noticed the same thing, circulation elongation. Not a good sign of development. MLC might be opening up.....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

I think it is time to start looking for the next one

[RL3AO]

It sounds like "convergence" is the word of the day.

[Brent]

I think it is time to start looking for the next one

Do I hear a NEXT?!

It's funny that Bertha is stealing the attention again.

[cycloneye]

Or its dead Jim!

[KWT]

Possibly Derek, still think we have to watch this for the next 24hrs at least just in case it does decide to do something.
These systems do tend to have a habit of coming back when you least expect it.

[Jason_B]

Have patience, seems like if something doesn't develop immediately yall seem to write it off. Just wait and see what happens as it moves west.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A couple of hours ago, the Northern band seemed to look like it was going to wrap around the center. Now, it seems to have lost some curvature, and does not seem to want to wrap.


Based on models being unimpressed, and less impressive satellite presentation than earlier this afternoon, I'd say development, if any, is not in a hurry to occur.


Unofficially. Not neccesarily a good thing, either. Slower development, closer to mainland US, means less opportunity to recurve and miss land. Good for the Lesser Antilles, as a silver lining.

[KWT]

Yeah Jason_B maybe but there are just some things that are missing for this system. Whilst it may need to be watched still right now its looking pretty poorly.

[cycloneye]

Its good news that our friends in the Eastern Caribbean will not have to deal with at one point one model had as a cat 2 moving thru the Northern Leewards.However,the peak of the season is some weeks away so the season has a long way to go.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Have to hand it to the guidance

it had a 1007-1010mb low forming followed by arrested development... and that seems to have been what occurred

I am going to have to respectfully disagree. The GFDL and HWRF both developed this into a hurricane in their runs yesterday, and the GFS showed a pretty strong-looking system too that persisted for several days into the future. If this system ends up not developing, then I think the models did a pretty bad job, IMO. The only saving grace will be their quick change to dropping the system in recent runs, which if 94L dies out tonight, will have been a change for the better. The only models that really did a "good job" if 94L never develops will be the UKMET and the NOGAPS. Both of those models have been bearish from the get go, unlike the GFS, CMC, GFDL and HWRF which were very bullish initially.

[PTrackerLA]

I'll stick with that the NHC is says about this system rather than hugging the models. Until they back down on development I don't see any reason to next this one.

[jaxfladude]

You guys still looking for this become a TD today, are going to be disappointed. Give it another day to get it's act together.

That's right. She'll come along. Don't despair!

You mean, "he'll" come along.

As long it is not "hell" when all is said and done......