ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Oh well thats not very good for development, chances really are going down the pan quickly if that stays in place for any amount of time!

[Derek Ortt]

That's the convergence map. The divergence map is in yellow.

ok... let me explain...

negative convergence is divergence. If you add a negative, you subtract

[KWT]

Yep Derek thats going to not help in the slightest trying to get a system to form, I wonder if the models were latching onto that today?

Still just going to have to try and keep that convection going further north otherwise we will have to be on naked swirl alert

[Aquawind]

If the shear stays the same.. I have a hard time NOT seeing this be TD3. It's sooo close I have got to beleive the convection will concentrate. One big diurnal blowup could do it.

[Ivanhater]

well we are seeing winds move away from the center at the surface, we need winds to come toward the center at the surface so it can rise then diverge at the upper levels...I wont go into the Parcel and lapse rate

[gatorcane]

Yep Derek thats going to not help in the slightest trying to get a system to form, I wonder if the models were latching onto that today?

Still just going to have to try and keep that convection going further north otherwise we will have to be on naked swirl alert

I disagree. Satellite presentation gradually is improving. T-storms are just starting to wrap around the LLC, albeit a small band:

[Ed Mahmoud]

That's the convergence map. The divergence map is in yellow.

ok... let me explain...

negative convergence is divergence. If you add a negative, you subtract

I'm guessing he is talking the upper divergence map from CIMMS.

[KWT]

The problem is with Divergence we won't see no convection blow up near the center, it just won't happen and it will keep this look until that changes and by that time we may not have a circulation, thats probably the most negative approach but its possible!

[Ivanhater]

The problem is with Divergence we won't see no convection blow up near the center, it just won't happen and it will keep this look until that changes and by that time we may not have a circulation, thats probably the most negative approach but its possible!

Exactly what the models may be seeing...

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's the convergence map. The divergence map is in yellow.

ok... let me explain...

negative convergence is divergence. If you add a negative, you subtract

ooohh, I see. Dotted line = lower level divergence, solid line = lower level convergence. thanks

[KWT]

I'm starting to think that maybe what its keying into. Right now there is convergence to the north which sustain the convective band to the north so I can't see it weaken but equally unless we see some convergence over the center its going to have to strengthen the tough way and also the slow way.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yep, a small bit of convection has fired close to the circulation center. Will it persist? Quien sabes?

[HouTXmetro]

Was good while it lasted!

[Aquawind]

It's still pretty whimpy convection and the sun angle is distorting as well..

[KWT]

Yep the convection that is closer to the center is barely coloured on the IR loops, also convection the north seems to be weakening now as well, does seem like chances for development are now going down pretty qucikly.

[Aquawind]

Was good while it lasted!

LOL.. Come on now..NHC still has it as high probability.

[Aquawind]

Yep the convection that is closer to the center is barely coloured on the IR loops, also convection the north seems to be weakening now as well, does seem like chances for development are now going down pretty qucikly.

Yep..If going by IR alone it looks almost hopeless. It could pop anytime near the center though or just slowly concentrate.

[TheRingo]

looks really sheared to the north.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 141957
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 PM AST MON JUL 14 2008

A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 43 WEST WILL THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASING SEAS...STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

[Thunder44]

You guys still looking for this become a TD today, are going to be disappointed. Give it another day to get it's act together.