ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#7161 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:25 am

They should, and Dolly still has time unfortunatly.
0 likes   

User avatar
HarlequinBoy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1400
Age: 34
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
Location: Memphis

#7162 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:25 am

AT 3 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

From the NHC.
0 likes   

User avatar
HarlequinBoy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1400
Age: 34
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
Location: Memphis

Re:

#7163 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:26 am

Starburst wrote:I think Brownsville will still be pretty hard hit, even if landfall is a tad north of Brownsville.


Right, and even if landfall is a bit north they would still be in the southern eyewall.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#7164 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:27 am

Image

TS winds already in the coast.
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re:

#7165 Postby paintplaye » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:29 am

HarlequinBoy wrote:AT 3 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

From the NHC.


75 miles, at 10 mph, this thing would make landfall at around 11 am central time, 12 pm eastern time.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7166 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:29 am

000
UZNT13 KNHC 230823
XXAA 73087 99258 70962 08256 99983 26001 09564 00652 ///// /////
92536 23202 11576 85275 20206 12064 70937 11000 12566 88999 77999
31313 09608 80803
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2580N09630W 0807 MBL WND 11077 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 11569 982709 WL150 09573 083 =
XXBB 73088 99258 70962 08256 00983 26001 11850 20206 22730 14210
33708 13400 44696 10000
21212 00983 09564 11976 09574 22960 11084 33925 11576 44913 12069
55850 12064 66696 12565
31313 09608 80803
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2580N09630W 0807 MBL WND 11077 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 11569 982709 WL150 09573 083 =
;

983mb (surface): 64kt
976mb: 74kt
960mb: 84kt
925mb: 76kt
913mb: 69kt
850mb: 64kt
700mb: 66kt
696mb: 65kt
0 likes   

User avatar
Starburst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 484
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:03 pm
Location: Beeville, TX
Contact:

#7167 Postby Starburst » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:30 am

Hurakan that map is from 10pm last night. According to some radio reports the early morning Brownsville still has very little wind if any this morning. Strange isn't it?
0 likes   

Scorpion

Re:

#7168 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:31 am

Starburst wrote:Hurakan that map is from 10pm last night. According to some radio reports the early morning Brownsville still has very little wind if any this morning. Strange isn't it?


Those graphics depict the winds over water. Land slows down windspeed significantly and Brownsville is a few miles inland.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re:

#7169 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:33 am

Starburst wrote:Hurakan that map is from 10pm last night. According to some radio reports the early morning Brownsville still has very little wind if any this morning. Strange isn't it?


The whole system looks smaller in the satellite images. I guess the entire storm has constricted.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Starburst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 484
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:03 pm
Location: Beeville, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7170 Postby Starburst » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:34 am

RL3AO wrote:000
UZNT13 KNHC 230823
XXAA 73087 99258 70962 08256 99983 26001 09564 00652 ///// /////
92536 23202 11576 85275 20206 12064 70937 11000 12566 88999 77999
31313 09608 80803
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2580N09630W 0807 MBL WND 11077 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 11569 982709 WL150 09573 083 =
XXBB 73088 99258 70962 08256 00983 26001 11850 20206 22730 14210
33708 13400 44696 10000
21212 00983 09564 11976 09574 22960 11084 33925 11576 44913 12069
55850 12064 66696 12565
31313 09608 80803
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2580N09630W 0807 MBL WND 11077 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 11569 982709 WL150 09573 083 =
;

983mb (surface): 64kt
976mb: 74kt
960mb: 84kt
925mb: 76kt
913mb: 69kt
850mb: 64kt
700mb: 66kt
696mb: 65kt



So the significant wind level on that drop was 84 knots which is 97mph winds
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22980
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7171 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:35 am

Track hasn't changed. Heading straight for Brownsville, right toward the TX/MX border, about 300 degrees. But we're expecting a left turn soon as it's blocked by high pressure to the north.

Here are BRO obs decoded. Current wind 330/15 gusting 23. Remember, those TS force wind radii rings represent the farthest out from the center that the sustained wind COULD reach 39 mph and ONLY over the water. Winds are reduced by friction over land. But just because you're inside one of the wind radii ring doesn't mean you'll get those winds constantly (even over water), it just mean you could see a specific wind speed at times in passing squalls.

KBRO| |230753|77.0F|73.9F|90.3%|330|015|023|29.62|999|OVC|Light Rain
KBRO| |230721|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|340|015|023|29.65|999|OVC|Rain , Mist
KBRO| |230717|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|340|014|019|29.65|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
KBRO| |230710|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|340|013|022|29.66|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
KBRO| |230653|77.0F|73.9F|90.3%|340|016|023|29.67|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
KBRO| |230623|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|340|011|019|29.69|999|OVC|Light Rain
Last edited by wxman57 on Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Re:

#7172 Postby paintplaye » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:35 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Starburst wrote:Hurakan that map is from 10pm last night. According to some radio reports the early morning Brownsville still has very little wind if any this morning. Strange isn't it?


The whole system looks smaller in the satellite images. I guess the entire storm has constricted.

Image


I would expect it to expand during the day as it hits land and with daytime heating you will see more bands farther away from the storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#7173 Postby wx247 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:35 am

Highest gusts I have seen from S. Padre via WeatherNet has been 45 mph... for Brownsville has been 38 mph.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7174 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:36 am

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Starburst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 484
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:03 pm
Location: Beeville, TX
Contact:

#7175 Postby Starburst » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:44 am

Last edited by Starburst on Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HarlequinBoy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1400
Age: 34
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
Location: Memphis

#7176 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:45 am

Storm total from the Brownsville radar is showing a solid core of 4-10 inches of rain near and around the center's path.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#7177 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:45 am

Image
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7178 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:48 am

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SFMR...
DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASUREMENTS UP TO NOW HAVE
YIELDED 70 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT
FOR THIS ABRUPT FALL IN PRESSURE TO NOT SHOW ANY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH.
0 likes   

User avatar
HarlequinBoy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1400
Age: 34
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
Location: Memphis

Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7179 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:51 am

RL3AO wrote:AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SFMR...
DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASUREMENTS UP TO NOW HAVE
YIELDED 70 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT
FOR THIS ABRUPT FALL IN PRESSURE TO NOT SHOW ANY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH.


Yeah, they nudged the winds up to 85 mph.
0 likes   

americanrebel

Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#7180 Postby americanrebel » Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:55 am

Yeah, so at best this will be a Cat. 2 hurricane at landfall, that is if it continues on it continue slow jog to the NW then to its WNW movement. But if for any reason the trough to the north continues to dig to the South and the High to her N continues to shift East and the High to her SW continues to nudge North, she could very easily turn due N. All the mets are hoping this don't happen, but with Mother Nature you never know what she has planned.

Everything that was just stated is my own opinion and is not backed by any one or any governmental agencies.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests