ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[rockyman]

How's this going to recurve into that huge high pressure system?:

[cycloneye]

I think the pro mets would say about the 20n-60w box,its early to say it will be track there.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

This RGB loop helps identify the LLC and the direction it's moving in. After staring at it much too long I'm thinking a little north of due west with convection consolidating over the LLC making it appear like it's moving more NW.

[KWT]

Yeah no way will this recurve given the synoptic set-up, its going to be a threat to someone just a matter of where and if it develops into much.

Also should be noted still east of 50W, still got a good few days to develop before any threat to the NE Caribbean develops.

[OURAGAN]

i agree, not definitive direction for the moment.

[KWT]

The thing that make sit look NW is the center jogging back eastward somewhat. I think current movement about 285 BUT I don't think this has a very well defined center still so its prone to wobbling around a little while yet...yep first one to use that dreaded W word!

[Ivanhater]

Is the the same system from this morning?

[Weatherfreak14]

looking alot better organized, I wonder whats going to happen tonight....

[canetracker]

The models yesterday had a track probably around 285 and its further north then was progged at this stage as well, esp given the real center is probably up at 14N.

Track seems bang on GFDL...

I wish they would have run a 12z GFDL on 92L but instead am having to use the 93L run.

[gatorcane]

I think the pro mets would say about the 20n-60w box,its early to say it will be track there.

its a little early but several well-respected models show the track right through Herbert box #1

[jhamps10]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

This RGB loop helps identify the LLC and the direction it's moving in. After staring at it much too long I'm thinking a little north of due west with convection consolidating over the LLC making it appear like it's moving more NW.

agreed 100% and you stole my words there, looks like close to west right now.

[MWatkins]

To me...it looks like there is some southerly shear caused by the upper low sitting up at 25N 50W. This is pulling the convection to the north of the low-level wave axis and causing the disrupted look to the system:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

However...92L will be west of that in about 48 hours (or less) and the upper flow should be more in line with the forward motion of 92L instead of working against it.

As long as 92L is generating the deep thunderstorms it is pushing up now, it runs the risk of hanging on long enough for the pattern to change once it gets further west. That's the real concern here...I really think this is going to be a problem once it passes 60 west even if it doesn't develop before then.

MW

[SouthFLTropics]

It definitely is looking better than earlier. Remember though that we have been fooled before to only watch systems fizzle right in front of our eyes. Heck, I remember that Debby was pegged for South Florida as a cane and we watched her melt like the wicked witch of the west. If it holds together for another 24 hours then I may be a believer but right now I'm a bit skeptical. That being said, it is putting on a pretty good show this evening.

SouthFLTropics

[KWT]

MWatkins, yeah there may well be some shear still on this system but I do think now any circulation is more likely to gfet going within the deep convection and may already have reformed but its hard to say right now to be honest.
Track right now to me is probably 285.

[MWatkins]

MWatkins, yeah there may well be some shear still on this system but I do think now any circulation is more likely to gfet going within the deep convection and may already have reformed but its hard to say right now to be honest.
Track right now to me is probably 285.

The "center" could very well be up there or develop there. The models (like the GFDL) were hinting at a little more WNW/NW in the short term (probably in response to the upper low up there). So it could be reformation or true movement. Either way I don't think there is enough time, space or strength in the upper low to turn this before ridging builds back into the central/western Atlantic.

MW

[frederic79]

Question for Mike Watkins. Just out of curiousity, in the 7-8 day time frame, what is your best estimate/average of reliable models consensus in defining the western periphery of the strong ridge forecast to build in north of 92L?

[canegrl04]

If this eventually becomes Fay,and based on some of the model forecasts,Florida could be in danger for the first time since 2004

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. I step away for an hour or two, and this system has managed to really take off! If this strong convection can continue to fire throughout the night, then I wouldn't rule out TD classification tomorrow. As for the idea of a recurve, I don't buy it. No models are showing that, and the current setup does not favor such a scenario either. The earliest this would turn north, IMO, would be near the Bahamas.

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[HURAKAN]

If this eventually becomes Fay,and based on some of the model forecasts,Florida could be in danger for the first time since 2004

And 2005 just flew by and nothing happened!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this eventually becomes Fay,and based on some of the model forecasts,Florida could be in danger for the first time since 2004

You mean 2005, right? You cannot forget Cat. 3 Wilma (As well as Cat. 3 Dennis, Cat. 1 Katrina, and the close call by Rita).