Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[Sanibel]

Looks like intensity is the only question with this one. With so many dissipating systems this one taunts that it could be an unexpected late bloomer.

[Blown Away]

I just don't see 99L developing, if ever, before at least 60-65W. We can now throw the 20N/60W Hebert Box theory out at this point because it will not be a developed system. 99L appears to me to be closer to 19.3N and should continue just N of due W and be just N of PR in 48 hours. IMO, for the CONUS 99L not deloping before 65W is probably the worst scenerio, if 99L was ever going to impact the CONUS it would have to develop close to the CONUS. I'm not seeing a LLC so maybe 99L is opening up into a wave, but it continues to have bursts of convection near 19.3/52W, which may be the general location of the LLC. Just N of due W, not due W anymore, IMO. Also, 99L is getting ready to move over a little warmer waters.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...CORRECT AM TO PM...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
160 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AND
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS DIMINISHED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Honeyko]

That's exactly the steering I figured from the WV loop. Recurve before US. There's a weak ULL to its NW right now in tandem west.

Don't be surprised if the LLC outruns the convection on a due westerly heading again. Last night's flare essentially gave the whorl another day or two of life, and it'll be breathing down the neck of the southeast Bahamas soon enough at this rate.

I said it yesterday: This thing has a Floyd smell about it.

[stevetampa33614]

Its still heading due west

[stevetampa33614]

That's exactly the steering I figured from the WV loop. Recurve before US. There's a weak ULL to its NW right now in tandem west.

Don't be surprised if the LLC outruns the convection on a due westerly heading again. Last night's flare essentially gave the whorl another day or two of life, and it'll be breathing down the neck of the southeast Bahamas soon enough at this rate.

I said it yesterday: This thing has a Floyd smell about it.

Floyd was developed at this point. This is just a swirl of clouds.

[cycloneye]

Its still heading due west

WNW.

[cycloneye]

03/1745 UTC 19.4N 52.4W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

AL, 99, 2008080318, , BEST, 0, 193N, 524W, 25, 1010

Winds down to 25 knots.

[HURAKAN]

It's a little worrying that this system continues to move just N of due W as it approaches the Northern Antilles.

[Scorpion]

I think it will begin to get its act together north of the islands near the Bahamas

[BigA]

Any word on shear forecasts in the areas that 99L will be transversing? This seems to be what is holding back development.

[Nimbus]

Don't forget there is still a TUTT to the northwest that will be providing shear for a while longer.

Factors that may favor development in the future are that the TUTT does not appear to be digging south, the SST's are warming, and the dry air may moisten up further west.

[Blown Away]

Watch the visible loop, at the end of the loop is that the LLC that pops out around 19.5N/53.5W? Still moving just N of due W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Also, looks like the TUTT is moving slowly N and the dry air to the W is slowly moistening.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

What does it mean, I don't know but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Here is a pic of this system in the north east of the Northern Leewards Islands...

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 032107
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 PM AST SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOCAL WEATHER
WILL STILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE OF TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ALONG 52.5 WEST.
WE HAVE CONTINUED FORECAST BASED ON THIS WAVE PASSING LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA.
SOMEWHAT "DRIER" AIR IS EXPECTED FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN DRIER
AGAIN LATER THURSDAY.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 032000
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST SUN AUG 3 2008


THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA IS A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

[MGC]

99L looks better than TD-5 this afternoon on satellite. 99L is fairly well organized and there is cyclonic spin apparent on the satellite loop. ULL to its NW is producing some SW shear over the system. I would not be surprised to see 99L get upgraded if convection persists....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Looks better?

[Honeyko]

I said it yesterday: This thing has a Floyd smell about it.

Floyd was developed at this point. This is just a swirl of clouds.

In 1999, Floyd was a weak, heavily sheared system declare TS at 48W, but which didn't make Hurr until 58W. It consistently tracked left of the models, rapidly intensified (with hail in the eyewall) north of the LAs, briefly scared the ever-livin' crap out of Florida as a cat-4, then dwindled to a weaker system eventually hitting the Carolinas.

99L's swirl is still below 20N and moving west out ahead of the SAL. In the short term, this means it's weak. In the long term, however, it means it won't have tall CBs snagged up in hostile southwesterly shear, dragging the system to the right. Meaning: A surface whorl gets plopped SE of the Bahamas, all ready to explode the moment the uppers give it a split-second chance. Katrina came out of garbage looking worse than this.

2045Z LLC fix: 19.5N, 53.3W (Any fix north of that is getting faked-out by mid-level action.)