ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Rainband]

Nikki: Ay caramba!

Chrissy: Holy Poop!

John !@##@!!

[AL Chili Pepper]

That HWRF run looks horrible, and especially alarming for New Orleans. It's still a long way out, but sheesh.

[caneman]

I just peed myself looking at those runs. Good thing it's still early on. I'll pray that the imaginary Tampa Bay Force field holds I like when they point in our direction 2-5 days out because then they almost never hit us.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Nikki: Ay caramba!

Chrissy: Holy Poop!

John !@##@!!

Hahahaha! Love it!

The scary thing about that last frame is that the way the high over the Arklatex area looked, the way it was shaped, was reminiscent of the shape that is achieved when a front is on its southern border. I suspect that when Gustav starts getting into the gulf, especially if it slows down, there will be a front coming down out of the midwest that will affect its future path. It may protect the western gulf, but could cause the storm to more rapidly advance to the northest gulf ahead of it. -more like we commonly see in late season storms.

Watcha think?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I just peed myself looking at those runs. Good thing it's still early on. I'll pray that the imaginary Tampa Bay Force field holds I like when they point in our direction 2-5 days out because then they almost never hit us.

Only problem with that reasoning....it isn't currently pointing at us....which we wish it were! -then we could feel safer! hahahaa

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 260026
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080826 0000 080826 1200 080827 0000 080827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 71.2W 17.6N 72.7W 18.6N 73.7W 19.2N 74.9W
BAMD 16.4N 71.2W 17.2N 72.7W 17.7N 73.9W 17.7N 75.2W
BAMM 16.4N 71.2W 17.6N 72.6W 18.4N 73.6W 18.6N 74.6W
LBAR 16.4N 71.2W 17.7N 72.7W 18.7N 74.1W 19.1N 75.3W
SHIP 55KTS 69KTS 77KTS 81KTS
DSHP 55KTS 69KTS 75KTS 80KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080828 0000 080829 0000 080830 0000 080831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 75.9W 20.2N 79.0W 21.3N 82.7W 22.8N 86.4W
BAMD 17.3N 76.4W 16.5N 78.8W 17.0N 81.9W 18.6N 85.9W
BAMM 18.4N 75.4W 18.0N 77.8W 19.0N 81.0W 20.7N 84.8W
LBAR 19.0N 76.5W 18.3N 79.8W 18.2N 84.2W 19.0N 88.7W
SHIP 86KTS 87KTS 83KTS 78KTS
DSHP 57KTS 33KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 71.2W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 69.6W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 67.4W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$

[caneman]

I meant we're in the cone right? Some of the models want to shunt it north and East don't they. Either way. Let the force be with us.

[Brent]

I see another southward shift coming at 11...

[ronjon]

Assuming Gus follows the GFDL and HWRF tracks out to 126 hrs into the SE GOM - where is he gonna go from there? According to the latest GFS - north and then northeast toward the central and eastern Gulf coast.

[Ivanhater]

I see another southward shift coming at 11...

And with that..a jack up in intensity

[jaxfladude]

"Oh, great, I am going to have to clear my already taxing schedule to accompany all the Storm2K posters if the tack verifies."

[TSmith274]

These things are going to shift all over the place in the coming days. But man... this isn't fun. Is the thinking still NE GOM long range?

[johngaltfla]

That HWRF run looks horrible, and especially alarming for New Orleans. It's still a long way out, but sheesh.

If that sucker turned out to be anything close to 930 mb, New Orleans would be well, toast.

That is one scary model run. I hope that the upper air recon and trips tomorrow give us a bit more clarity. IF these runs into the Yucatan passage hold, I might be on a short leash plan to bug out. Wow, that run is just a reminder of 2005.

[cpdaman]

anyone know if the latest Euro trys to develop something else north of the islands that could impact the mid level ridge near florida

[wzrgirl1]

i heard that too......something might erode the ridge

[Rainband]

Nikki: Ay caramba!

Chrissy: Holy Poop!

John !@##@!!

Hahahaha! Love it!

The scary thing about that last frame is that the way the high over the Arklatex area looked, the way it was shaped, was reminiscent of the shape that is achieved when a front is on its southern border. I suspect that when Gustav starts getting into the gulf, especially if it slows down, there will be a front coming down out of the midwest that will affect its future path. It may protect the western gulf, but could cause the storm to more rapidly advance to the northest gulf ahead of it. -more like we commonly see in late season storms.

Watcha think?

I will be watching this closely.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Models coming in..first up NAM

6 hours

[Wx_Warrior]

You heard it here first (i'll eat my crow)...I think the ridge crumbles and the cone will be CEN/NE GOM.

[Scorpion]

[A1A]

Which of these models is the "EURO"??