ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[canegrl04]

Well, all I Am saying is NONE of the models except the GFDL had this even getting close to shooting the gap of the channel. Look back at some of the past pages...I know where the model consensus is...I am not saying that its gonna go up there, but this storm has relocated further NE. (awaiting NHC recon for confrim though)

Looks like the GFDL will be the model that came the closest to getting Dolly's entry into the GOM correct. I'm afraid Dolly will wind up being a major cane.Just my own personal opinion,giving her short stay over the Yucatan,and the very warm GOM

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFDL tracks more north,now over Brownsville.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea, I recall GFDL readjusting yesterday.

[njweather]

I can't help to go back to 2 days ago when the GFDL was showing 94L/Dolly trying to shoot the channel and head towards houston/galveston. I AM NOT SAYING CAT5 TO HOU....I still think the short term the GFDL has to be doing the best with intensity and track. (the run from 2 days ago that is)

So basically, you're saying CAT5 TO HOU?!?!

Regardless of whether it hits Mex or S Tex, it appears Houston will be in for some rainy weather, which I'm sure many here will appreciate.

[dwg71]

if gfdl is going to be the best, it will spend a long time over pennisula

[ronjon]

18Z GFDL - just north of BRO-TX.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008072018-dolly04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[sgastorm]

It will be interesting to see if anything changes with the 00Z model runs with the Gulfstream data added to the mix.

[deltadog03]

if gfdl is going to be the best, it will spend a long time over pennisula

ok

[cycloneye]

The BAMS at 00:00 UTC have it moving 305 degrees at 12kts a tad slower.And also a little more north than the past run.

WHXX01 KWBC 210034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080721 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080721 0000 080721 1200 080722 0000 080722 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 85.3W 20.9N 88.1W 22.7N 90.4W 24.7N 92.8W
BAMD 19.3N 85.3W 20.3N 87.9W 21.5N 90.3W 22.8N 92.2W
BAMM 19.3N 85.3W 20.5N 88.0W 21.9N 90.4W 23.4N 92.7W
LBAR 19.3N 85.3W 20.3N 88.0W 21.5N 90.9W 22.9N 93.4W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 64KTS 70KTS
DSHP 45KTS 43KTS 49KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080723 0000 080724 0000 080725 0000 080726 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 95.0W 28.8N 99.4W 29.9N 103.9W 31.7N 108.7W
BAMD 24.3N 93.9W 26.6N 96.6W 27.3N 100.5W 28.9N 106.4W
BAMM 25.0N 94.7W 26.9N 98.4W 27.7N 102.6W 29.3N 108.2W
LBAR 24.5N 95.4W 27.3N 97.9W 29.0N 99.9W 30.4N 103.1W
SHIP 76KTS 80KTS 72KTS 61KTS
DSHP 61KTS 66KTS 33KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 85.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 83.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 81.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 150NM

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IIRC, another storm back in 1995 spent three days over the Yucatan.....and became nearly a C5 in the central Gulf. Of course she weakened before she struck, but the moral of the story is, just because it spends a day or two over land, doesn't mean it can't still become something bigger.

Now I'm not saying this will be an Opal, but I think regardless of how long Dolly stays over the Yucatan, Texas and northern Mexico really need to watch it, especially if it slows down. I think this could be a C3 at landfall, wherever it strikes, likely Wednesday or Thursday.

-Andrew92

[Ivanhater]

I will wager and say most of the models will be pointing to the Mid Texas coast tomorrow with the MLC taking over tonight..

[Wx_Warrior]

key words were 'spent 3 days'...Will this TS do that?

BTW...Ivan, what's the wager?

[cycloneye]

Communicate both of you by private message and not post this offtopic thing please.

[ROCK]

I will wager and say most of the models will be pointing to the Mid Texas coast tomorrow with the MLC taking over tonight..

BAMS shifted so I would lean that way to. Not that it wont change back to MX on the next run...

[Ivanhater]

I will wager and say most of the models will be pointing to the Mid Texas coast tomorrow with the MLC taking over tonight..

BAMS shifted so I would lean that way to. Not that it wont change back to MX on the next run...

Lol part of the fun!

wxwarrior, you pick, lol

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFDL - Cat 2, Brownsville.

[ROCK]

18Z GFDL - Cat 2, Brownsville.

your still to far south Ed.....intialized that is.....what color is your thong?

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFDL - Cat 2, Brownsville.

your still to far south Ed.....intialized that is.....what color is your thong?

Turn South Dolly, Turn!!!!!!!

[Portastorm]

18Z GFDL - Cat 2, Brownsville.

your still to far south Ed.....intialized that is.....what color is your thong?

Yeah! C'mon Ed, you know the 18z is being run on bad data. If the 0z GFDL says Brownsville, then we have something to work with.

[americanrebel]

Once again, this is only my opinion, there is no scientific proof behind this at all.

I think that by the 11 am (central time) reports the Cone will be more from Corpus Christi, Tx. to Intracoastal City, La.