ATL: Marco : Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 061445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 06 OCTOBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z OCTOBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-128

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVESTIGATIVE MISSION
INTO AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL BE LAUNCHED TODAY ASAP. TEAL 70.
SURFACE TO 12,000 FT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[tailgater]

Weak overland center didn't retain as much convection as I thought. The energy off shore east of Yucatan is bending N, but our surface feature is still weakly headed for BOC. I don't think this is a d-min so we'll have to see what it does once back over water. Having trouble getting #13 here.

Looks to me that it has a fairly tight LLC(small) moving just a bit north of due west. Let's if can make it back over water for a day or so, it would probably spin up rather quickly being so small.
Doubtful, but I sure thought this would be a TD or TS about 4 or 5 days ago.

Yea, geaux me. now it can just make landfall and not cause much damage hopefully.

[somethingfunny]

Tiny little bugger......well-organized though. Does anyone have similar satellite pics of Bret, Gert, and Jose from 2005 to see how those storms compare to Marco-to-be in appearance?

[Frank2]

Yep, that has to be one of the smallest systems I've ever seen - just a dot on this photo:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

[Derek Ortt]

seems about the size of Edouard 1984

[Sanibel]

Yeah, it is a small system. Typical of this area and track.

The "eye" flashed out for a frame but got covered back over.

Good spinning bursting little cyclone down there. Could be small enough to not prevent something else from forming in the Caribbean.

[Just Joshing You]

Well it looks safe to assume that "Marco" will not make this years Retirement list

Cyclone Tracy. Cat 4/5. Officially a 4, but there's reason to believe otherwise.

[Just Joshing You]

seems about the size of Edouard 1984

What are you looking at? Edouard looks much bigger than future Marco.

[wxman57]

Tiny little bugger......well-organized though. Does anyone have similar satellite pics of Bret, Gert, and Jose from 2005 to see how those storms compare to Marco-to-be in appearance?

Thirteen is much smaller than Bret, Gert, or Jose:

Bret 2005:


Gert 2005:


Jose 2005:

[HURAKAN]

[Just Joshing You]

Is there a reason why storms in this general area are prone to being abnormally small?

[somethingfunny]

Is there a reason why storms in this general area are prone to being abnormally small?

It's a small area of ocean. Something bigger wouldn't be able to organize due to land friction.

BTW, thank you wxman. It's interesting to see that each of those storms was at least twice as big as Thirteen is. Then again, we'll see what happens when Thirteen strengthens a bit more. It may yet gain some size as well before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

I don't think that's an eye-feature. Wxman57, what do you think?

[CrazyC83]

That DOES look like an eye to me...

[HURAKAN]

That DOES look like an eye to me...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not sure about an EYE but i think we prob have TINY TS marco now...

[Category 5]

Marco, do you take Tracy to be your lawfully wedded wife?

[tailgater]

Marco, do you take Tracy to be your lawfully wedded wife?

I think it would go more like, Tracy will you adopt this tiny under fed child with only 24 hours to live.

[CrazyC83]

I think this is rapidly deepening?

[HURAKAN]