ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
The 12z Canadian has a hurricane just NE of Puerto Rico:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
Pressure down to 1007 mbs.SHIP for a second run in a row today forecasts a hurricane at the ladder part of run.
351
WHXX01 KWBC 191847
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080819 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080819 1800 080820 0600 080820 1800 080821 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 37.9W 13.5N 40.1W 14.2N 42.8W 15.0N 45.7W
BAMD 13.0N 37.9W 13.8N 39.4W 14.8N 41.3W 15.8N 43.7W
BAMM 13.0N 37.9W 13.6N 39.8W 14.5N 42.0W 15.2N 44.6W
LBAR 13.0N 37.9W 13.1N 39.4W 13.3N 41.5W 13.7N 44.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080821 1800 080822 1800 080823 1800 080824 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 49.0W 19.3N 55.4W 22.0N 62.1W 25.1N 67.8W
BAMD 16.9N 46.4W 19.3N 51.8W 21.3N 57.1W 23.1N 61.4W
BAMM 16.0N 47.3W 17.8N 52.5W 19.3N 58.3W 21.1N 63.4W
LBAR 14.5N 47.3W 16.4N 53.8W 19.0N 59.3W 17.4N 59.9W
SHIP 52KTS 64KTS 72KTS 78KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 72KTS 78KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 36.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 35.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
351
WHXX01 KWBC 191847
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080819 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080819 1800 080820 0600 080820 1800 080821 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 37.9W 13.5N 40.1W 14.2N 42.8W 15.0N 45.7W
BAMD 13.0N 37.9W 13.8N 39.4W 14.8N 41.3W 15.8N 43.7W
BAMM 13.0N 37.9W 13.6N 39.8W 14.5N 42.0W 15.2N 44.6W
LBAR 13.0N 37.9W 13.1N 39.4W 13.3N 41.5W 13.7N 44.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080821 1800 080822 1800 080823 1800 080824 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 49.0W 19.3N 55.4W 22.0N 62.1W 25.1N 67.8W
BAMD 16.9N 46.4W 19.3N 51.8W 21.3N 57.1W 23.1N 61.4W
BAMM 16.0N 47.3W 17.8N 52.5W 19.3N 58.3W 21.1N 63.4W
LBAR 14.5N 47.3W 16.4N 53.8W 19.0N 59.3W 17.4N 59.9W
SHIP 52KTS 64KTS 72KTS 78KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 72KTS 78KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 36.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 35.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
Here is the 18:00 UTC SHIP forecast:For a second run in a row SHIP forecasts relative light shear thru the period.
Code: Select all
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942008 08/19/08 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 52 59 64 67 72 75 78
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 52 59 64 67 72 75 78
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 50 56 64 71 78
SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 8 6 8 11 8 9 6 9 3 7 5
SHEAR DIR 162 174 206 229 202 204 189 209 213 218 84 267 333
SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 130 127 128 131 131 134 140 144 145 148
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 129 126 124 125 128 127 129 135 138 138 139
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 55 53 48 42 43 46 48 50 53 57
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 81 86 87 74 63 78 54 41 25 13 11 -1 -6
200 MB DIV 39 42 46 31 28 28 33 0 3 17 4 6 19
LAND (KM) 1766 1702 1642 1589 1545 1429 1347 1332 1201 1052 786 538 393
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.2 16.0 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.0 21.1
LONG(DEG W) 37.9 38.9 39.8 40.9 42.0 44.6 47.3 49.9 52.5 55.3 58.3 60.9 63.4
STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 19 19 16 17 17 19 30 43 45 47 61 55 52
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 10. 10. 11.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 27. 34. 40. 45. 49. 52. 55.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 34. 39. 42. 47. 50. 53.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
12Z European brings a system (either 94L or the one behind it) into the NE Carribean, then has it moving almost due west right over Jamica on Day 10 with another system (perhaps the system behind 94L) poised to move into the Carribean.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
18z GFS loop that shows 94L ending north of the Bahamas.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
The BAMS trending more west:
093
WHXX01 KWBC 200032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080820 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080820 0000 080820 1200 080821 0000 080821 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 38.4W 13.2N 40.6W 13.7N 43.1W 14.4N 46.1W
BAMD 12.7N 38.4W 13.4N 39.9W 14.1N 41.9W 14.8N 44.4W
BAMM 12.7N 38.4W 13.3N 40.3W 13.8N 42.3W 14.0N 44.8W
LBAR 12.7N 38.4W 12.8N 39.9W 13.1N 42.1W 13.7N 45.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080822 0000 080823 0000 080824 0000 080825 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 48.9W 17.6N 55.0W 19.4N 61.1W 21.8N 66.5W
BAMD 15.5N 46.9W 16.8N 52.0W 17.8N 57.7W 19.0N 63.3W
BAMM 14.3N 47.3W 14.8N 52.3W 15.1N 57.5W 15.5N 62.5W
LBAR 14.4N 48.1W 16.6N 54.8W 19.2N 60.6W 14.8N 60.6W
SHIP 53KTS 64KTS 68KTS 71KTS
DSHP 53KTS 64KTS 68KTS 71KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 38.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 37.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
093
WHXX01 KWBC 200032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080820 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080820 0000 080820 1200 080821 0000 080821 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 38.4W 13.2N 40.6W 13.7N 43.1W 14.4N 46.1W
BAMD 12.7N 38.4W 13.4N 39.9W 14.1N 41.9W 14.8N 44.4W
BAMM 12.7N 38.4W 13.3N 40.3W 13.8N 42.3W 14.0N 44.8W
LBAR 12.7N 38.4W 12.8N 39.9W 13.1N 42.1W 13.7N 45.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080822 0000 080823 0000 080824 0000 080825 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 48.9W 17.6N 55.0W 19.4N 61.1W 21.8N 66.5W
BAMD 15.5N 46.9W 16.8N 52.0W 17.8N 57.7W 19.0N 63.3W
BAMM 14.3N 47.3W 14.8N 52.3W 15.1N 57.5W 15.5N 62.5W
LBAR 14.4N 48.1W 16.6N 54.8W 19.2N 60.6W 14.8N 60.6W
SHIP 53KTS 64KTS 68KTS 71KTS
DSHP 53KTS 64KTS 68KTS 71KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 38.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 37.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
The 00:00 UTC SHIP forecast continues to show the trend for not strong shear in the period of 120 hours:
Code: Select all
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942008 08/20/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 45 53 60 64 67 68 70 71
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 45 53 60 64 67 68 70 71
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 43 49 56 61 65 67
SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 6 11 15 8 10 5 13 9 17 13 19
SHEAR DIR 166 182 149 149 158 181 145 180 141 117 143 107 131
SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 133 130 129 132 136 138 139 140 142 145 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 129 126 126 130 134 135 136 138 140 142 141
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11
700-500 MB RH 63 61 57 56 55 47 45 43 44 48 48 53 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 81 89 82 67 80 72 51 29 10 8 16 33 35
200 MB DIV 41 51 45 37 33 25 9 0 -6 4 -5 0 -2
LAND (KM) 1702 1638 1580 1519 1465 1313 1181 1080 1028 802 609 507 456
LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5
LONG(DEG W) 38.4 39.4 40.3 41.3 42.3 44.8 47.3 49.8 52.3 54.9 57.5 60.2 62.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 20 20 18 17 18 25 33 51 58 61 69 63 70
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 35. 40. 44. 45. 48. 49.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 20. 28. 35. 39. 42. 43. 45. 46.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/20/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/20/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
Good observation,abajan;and S/Juan weather office had some doubt about the track the models had at this time...
So,bear watching.............
So,bear watching.............
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs
Now GFDL is the left outlier. GFDL is racking my circuits.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs
Tell Gustav that he needs to take a number and wait in line. Fay is still being served right now. We'll take care of him shortly.
SFT
SFT
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs
SouthFLTropics wrote:Tell Gustav that he needs to take a number and wait in line. Fay is still being served right now. We'll take care of him shortly.
SFT
lol
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs
I am thinking the carib is a good possibility as the look of the ridge from the 0z GFS looks plenty strong....couple that with a weaker system due to the ULL......the GFDL / EURO might not be that far off.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs
0z GFS never developes 94L until she is pushed out to sea at 60W.....we shall see...
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
HUC wrote:Good observation,abajan;and S/Juan weather office had some doubt about the track the models had at this time...
So,bear watching.............
Hi Huc you're right too, bear watching for sure;, many incertitudes on this suspicious feature
I tkink that you're refering about this, i check it :
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200230
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST TUE AUG 19 2008
THE NEXT BIG QUESTION MARK FOR THE WEATHER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE PROXIMITY OF THE FIRST OF TWO LARGE AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EQUATORIAL AND MONSOONAL
TROUGHS ALONG THE ITCZ ARE CURRENTLY SETTING UP A MINI NURSERY IN
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FACILITATING THE PRESERVATION OF NEW
WAVES EXITING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...INCREASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FIRST WAVE
/DESIGNATED AL94 CURRENTLY NEAR 40W/ ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS TAKE OVER NEAR CLOUD TOPS. PER
NHC GUIDANCE...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IF THE WAVE MOVES MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
TIME. IF HOWEVER THE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW...IT COULD ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
PATTERN. THAT...COUPLED WITH CLIMATOLOGY /MID-TO-LATE AUGUST/ AND
WARM SSTS...GIVES THIS WAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM-RANGE GFS TRACKS
THE WAVE MORE WEST NORTHWEST...PLACING THE SYSTEM IN THE PATH OF
MORE UNFAVORABLE WINDS AND KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN LOW. LATEST AL94
EARLY-CYCLE INVEST RUNS SHOW AN ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK TAKING THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS WELL INTO THE
FUTURE AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MODEL INITIALIZED ITS CENTER
POSITION...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE FUTURE TRACK CHANGES WITH TIME.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...STAY TUNED TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 201235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080820 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080820 1200 080821 0000 080821 1200 080822 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 42.0W 12.9N 44.2W 13.8N 47.0W 15.0N 49.9W
BAMD 12.2N 42.0W 12.5N 43.4W 12.8N 45.4W 13.0N 47.9W
BAMM 12.2N 42.0W 12.4N 43.7W 12.4N 45.9W 12.4N 48.3W
LBAR 12.2N 42.0W 12.4N 44.0W 12.8N 46.6W 13.4N 49.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080822 1200 080823 1200 080824 1200 080825 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 53.2W 18.6N 60.2W 21.3N 66.8W 24.0N 70.4W
BAMD 13.2N 50.4W 13.5N 56.2W 14.3N 62.5W 15.3N 68.5W
BAMM 12.4N 51.1W 12.8N 56.8W 13.0N 62.3W 13.3N 67.6W
LBAR 13.9N 52.7W 16.5N 59.5W 19.5N 65.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 42.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 39.0W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 37.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080820 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080820 1200 080821 0000 080821 1200 080822 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 42.0W 12.9N 44.2W 13.8N 47.0W 15.0N 49.9W
BAMD 12.2N 42.0W 12.5N 43.4W 12.8N 45.4W 13.0N 47.9W
BAMM 12.2N 42.0W 12.4N 43.7W 12.4N 45.9W 12.4N 48.3W
LBAR 12.2N 42.0W 12.4N 44.0W 12.8N 46.6W 13.4N 49.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080822 1200 080823 1200 080824 1200 080825 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 53.2W 18.6N 60.2W 21.3N 66.8W 24.0N 70.4W
BAMD 13.2N 50.4W 13.5N 56.2W 14.3N 62.5W 15.3N 68.5W
BAMM 12.4N 51.1W 12.8N 56.8W 13.0N 62.3W 13.3N 67.6W
LBAR 13.9N 52.7W 16.5N 59.5W 19.5N 65.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 42.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 39.0W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 37.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic Model Runs
12:00 UTC SHIP Forecast:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942008 08/20/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 55 63 65 67 70 72 73
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 55 63 65 67 70 72 73
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 56 60 63 64 62
SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 8 4 3 7 7 8 14 18 18 25 18
SHEAR DIR 224 127 157 144 67 107 35 84 79 121 88 104 87
SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 137 139 141 147 147 144 145 145 142 145
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 132 135 138 141 149 150 145 147 146 142 145
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 10 11 9
700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 62 56 52 51 52 53 53 56 61 63
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 76 61 68 70 63 41 13 12 10 21 26 33 32
200 MB DIV 31 31 31 26 19 19 -3 -19 -13 11 13 14 4
LAND (KM) 1360 1302 1248 1173 1099 944 809 757 508 287 255 288 238
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.3
LONG(DEG W) 42.0 42.9 43.7 44.8 45.9 48.3 51.1 53.9 56.8 59.6 62.3 65.0 67.6
STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 9 11 11 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 32 43 48 62 64 62 71 62 55 46
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 37. 41. 44. 47. 49. 50.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 30. 38. 40. 42. 45. 47. 48.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/20/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/20/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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