Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Blown Away]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Canadian has what appears to be a major hurricane for this system heading generally toward SF

Doesn't the ridge appear to be weakening at the end of this run?

[Scorpion]

Why is there no GFDL yet?

[x-y-no]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Canadian has what appears to be a major hurricane for this system heading generally toward SF

Doesn't the ridge appear to be weakening at the end of this run?

At the surface, yes. But it seems to be turning the system more westward at the end, so I suspect it must be rebuilding a 500mb ridge over it. I was just on my way to check out that hypothesis.

EDIT: Yeah, it doesn't ever lose the mid-level ridge over the top, and it's bridging it over again at the end of the run.

[jinftl]

if there is a storm in that area next saturday and still heading wnw...that would get some attention all along the southeast atlantic coast (not to mention the bahamas)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Canadian has what appears to be a major hurricane for this system heading generally toward SF

[canetracker]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Canadian has what appears to be a major hurricane for this system heading generally toward SF

Looks like it goes over the edge of the northern islands and grazes PR. Interesting run!

[Blown Away]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Canadian has what appears to be a major hurricane for this system heading generally toward SF

Doesn't the ridge appear to be weakening at the end of this run?

At the surface, yes. But it seems to be turning the system more westward at the end, so I suspect it must be rebuilding a 500mb ridge over it. I was just on my way to check out that hypothesis.

EDIT: Yeah, it doesn't ever lose the mid-level ridge over the top, and it's bridging it over again at the end of the run.

Thanks, look forward to your results.

[cycloneye]

182
WHXX01 KWBC 101825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC SUN AUG 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080810 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080810 1800 080811 0600 080811 1800 080812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 44.5W 11.5N 46.0W 12.4N 47.6W 13.0N 49.3W
BAMD 10.7N 44.5W 11.3N 46.6W 11.8N 48.5W 12.1N 50.5W
BAMM 10.7N 44.5W 11.4N 46.2W 12.2N 47.7W 12.8N 49.3W
LBAR 10.7N 44.5W 11.1N 47.1W 11.8N 49.8W 12.3N 52.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080812 1800 080813 1800 080814 1800 080815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 51.3W 16.2N 56.3W 18.6N 62.2W 20.7N 68.3W
BAMD 12.6N 52.8W 14.3N 58.0W 15.9N 63.6W 17.2N 69.2W
BAMM 13.6N 51.2W 15.8N 56.2W 17.5N 61.8W 19.0N 67.6W
LBAR 13.1N 55.3W 15.2N 60.5W 17.1N 65.6W 20.0N 70.6W
SHIP 55KTS 69KTS 78KTS 82KTS
DSHP 55KTS 69KTS 78KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 44.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 41.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 36.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[canetracker]

12z UKMET animation:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[KWT]

Still tracking to the south of pretty much all of the models at this moment and that will continue until it actually can get an established circulation, once thats in place then it should start to gain more latitude.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami Discussion mentions forecasted ridging in place from mid-week on...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT MOST ACTIVITY TO AROUND THE LAKE AREA/INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSHES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

[Kennethb]

When I see several models showing left bends, models may be sensing a second ridge building in to carry more westward movement. Too with so much energy models may have some trouble trying to figure it all out. Regardless using what the models are telling us is that it would be a good time to get out the hurricane preparation list and be prepared to initiate.

[Blown Away]

NWS Miami Discussion mentions forecasted ridging in place from mid-week on...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT MOST ACTIVITY TO AROUND THE LAKE AREA/INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSHES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

That's a change, we have not had a persistent sea breeze in a long time. It appears the timing of the ridge building is not good for SFL at this point.

[Scorpion]

Euro has 3 systems

[canetracker]

Euro has 3 systems

I just noticed that too.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070800!!!step/

[KWT]

Mad ECM, the thing is its quite possible that happens, 92L further north, the feature behind develops and tracks into the Caribbean whilst another system deeper in may also get going.

That would be mad, imagine this board if that occured!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z Euro run is interesting. It brings 92L into the Bahamas on the 17th, curves it north just offshore the FL coast on the 18th, and then begins to aim it toward the Carolinas on the 19th. Very similar, though perhaps a tad west of, Floyd's track in 1999: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Floyd_1999_track.png

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mad ECM, the thing is its quite possible that happens, 92L does intothe Caribbean, the feature behind develops and tracks further north whilst another system deeper in may also get going.

That would be mad, imagine this board if that occured!

Actually the Euro is showing 92L being just NE of Florida on the 20th, with the system behind it located in the Caribbean.

[KWT]

Yep I just noticed that and made an edit!

IMO its going to be the other way round though but we shall see.

[Honeyko]

Still tracking to the south of pretty much all of the models at this moment and that will continue until it actually can get an established circulation, once thats in place then it should start to gain more latitude.

Storms in that area almost always track left of the models. About the only ones that don't are those which are sheared but not decoupled.

==//==

Given the time of the season and the initiation point, a track through the entire Caribbean is what I'd be gambling on.

[vacanechaser]

wow... the euro with the first system, 92L i assume moving towards the carolinas with the second system in the wings... this is gonna be very interesting



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team