ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Gustywind]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

Popping nicely convection is fairly on the increase...

[UKane]

I'm desperate for a depression... even if they keep this as a depression I want one.

[KatDaddy]

Be sure to visit this website for local Island reports. Lots of good info

http://stormcarib.com/

[bvigal]

How about we worry about the islands first, sheesh

Good post and reasoning glad to see that we're first concerned if something happens (should it verifies first), time will tell but first predictions does not show something pleasant for us in the Leewards Islands...

LOL, I would tend to agree, but I'm biased! If I was living on the mainland, I think I'd also be speculating about where this might go.

Ukane, if you feel desperate for a depression, how about you come down here and help me? It would be fun, and as I'm taking care of my stuff in my apartment with the leaky (and poorly-built) roof, and "sitting" for 2 large properties right now. I could sure use the extra hand!

[Normandy]

Good morning folks, here are my thoughts:
I would say 92L has a good shot at getting classified as a TD...Looking at visibles I see some evidence of a (at least) somewhat closed circulation, its hard to pinpoint exactly where though. Outflow seems hindered in the eastern quad, perhaps due to easterly shear? Anyways, steering maps suggests at least some sort of threat to the Leeward Islands, although it is very unclear if this will threaten other Caribbean islands such as PR, Haiti, and DR. If I lived in the Windward Islands I would be on full alert. Seems to be a developing system, lets just hope it doesn't get tooo bad.

[KatDaddy]

Sounds like you have your hands full bvigal. Hopefully the Invest wont develop much but as we all know its preparation time.

[Blown Away]

Question: The0z model for the wave that is now @35w had the system going through the islands, Cuba, SFL, Gulf, etc, do the models have these systems following each other into the E GOM area??

[wxman57]

Currently the good news for the W and NW GOM is the forcasted troughs over the E US during the upcoming week.
This will keep us protected from tropical cyclone moving into the Caribbean. However the E GOM up through the E Seaboard may have some threats down the road.

Good point, KatDaddy. I plotted the 00Z GFS 700-400mb streamline analysis for next Sunday, August 17th. Deepening trof across the eastern U.S., ridge over us in Texas. Points to a southeast U.S. threat:

[Gustywind]

How about we worry about the islands first, sheesh

Good post and reasoning glad to see that we're first concerned if something happens (should it verifies first), time will tell but first predictions does not show something pleasant for us in the Leewards Islands...

LOL, I would tend to agree, but I'm biased! If I was living on the mainland, I think I'd also be speculating about where this might go.

Ukane, if you feel desperate for a depression, how about you come down here and help me? It would be fun, and as I'm taking care of my stuff in my apartment with the leaky (and poorly-built) roof, and "sitting" for 2 large properties right now. I could sure use the extra hand!

Oh tkanks my Bvigal you're kind we will see but we should keep an eye on this carefully

[Chacor]

AL, 92, 2008081012, , BEST, 0, 105N, 430W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[storms in NC]

How about we worry about the islands first, sheesh

Good post and reasoning glad to see that we're first concerned if something happens (should it verifies first), time will tell but first predictions does not show something pleasant for us in the Leewards Islands...

LOL, I would tend to agree, but I'm biased! If I was living on the mainland, I think I'd also be speculating about where this might go.

Ukane, if you feel desperate for a depression, how about you come down here and help me? It would be fun, and as I'm taking care of my stuff in my apartment with the leaky (and poorly-built) roof, and "sitting" for 2 large properties right now. I could sure use the extra hand!

Let me tell you If I had Money I would be moving down there in a heart beat. I love the Islands. Sadly I have never been. It is a dream that will never come true.

[bvigal]

AL, 92, 2008081012, , BEST, 0, 105N, 430W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Chacor, read back just one page3 that's already been posted, and all the model text.

[Chacor]

Must've missed it, then. Sorry.

[canetracker]

Looks like you guys in the islands / PR may be in for some sleepless nights.

[Mecklenburg]

Looks like you guys in the islands / PR may be in for some sleepless nights.

92L doesn't really looks impressive on higher resolution...

[HURAKAN]

Convection is holding as we move into DMIN.

[Chacor]

Looks like you guys in the islands / PR may be in for some sleepless nights.

92L doesn't really looks impressive on higher resolution...

That's lower resolution, not higher. Lower resolution = more zoomed-out.

[deltadog03]

WXMAN, whats going on buddy?? Hey, thanks for that map from the GFS...Looks like EURO is also in fairly good agreement with the synoptic setup and the GFS. Question, if you have the time, is there anyway, we can find out what the steering levels looked like when Francis and Jeanne came into FL?? Can we find that out from the plymouth state site?

[HURAKAN]

[bvigal]

Hurakan, glad you posted that dvorak. I've been running the loop, and I think we'll have a depression in another hour.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html