ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[weatherguru18]

We should probably just be prudent at the moment. Things change day by day and hour by hour...hell, even minute by minute. Let's not repeat what some did for Dolly--"Oh it's definitely going to develop," then "Oh wait, this thing doesn't stand a chance." 30 minutes later--"Oh wait, this thing is going to develop for sure." What we know: This system has potential. It's drifting SW. Models bring it to Texas (albeit not very good models). What we don't know: Will it develop? If so, how strong will it be? Where's it going to hit?

[dixiebreeze]

There's some serious dry air in the front bearing down from the north and west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

[Stormcenter]

It looks to me like the "center" could be forming under the blob of convection.

[Stormcenter]

There's some serious dry air in the front bearing down from the north and west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

But it's under a lot of very warm water.

[dixiebreeze]

There's some serious dry air in the front bearing down from the north and west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

But it's under a lot of very warm water.

Right. I meant that will keep it in the GOM.

[stevetampa33614]

Radar shows some k ind of circulation. Unlikely to be a Surface one tho.

Wasnt a recond going out therE?\\e?

[MiamiensisWx]

But it's under a lot of very warm water.

SSTs/OHC are meaningless in actuality, since this system is over the GOM. I believe the upper air pattern is much more crucial, and I believe it favors development.

...and mid level dry air will likely remain an issue for this one, though shear will be minimal and an unstable boundary layer will be present.

It's impossible to pin down any definite answers, since we need a well defined LLC. Radar only indicates a MLC.

[HurricaneRobert]

Humberto was the invisible 'cane, but this looks much larger. I know H caused some damage in Galveston county, but since that's technically in the Houston area, it was strange that so few in Houston knew about the bad weather.

On the other hand, everyone says Dolly brought nothing to them. However, we had two or three straight days where it poured for several hours. Getting around the local streets was nasty because cars got stuck in the deep water. I am fine with summer "droughts".

[SouthFloridawx]

Radar shows some k ind of circulation. Unlikely to be a Surface one tho.

Wasnt a recond going out therE?\\e?

Tomorrow




Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 02 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0600Z-1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 03/1600Z C. 04/0400Z
D. 28.5N 86.5W D. 28.2N 88.0W
E. 03/1700 TO 04/0000Z E. 04/0500 TO 1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

[El Nino]

Hi all, nice to see you again this year.

My wife is for a training in Houston. I'm following this carefully, read to inform her. I don't think there's a great danger. What do you think you guyz ?

[Nimbus]

Just looking at the convection, this system really is cutting off from the front quickly.

I was hoping maybe we would get one of those elongated slow to develop, weak, soakers that you often get when a low takes a long time to split off from a front due to shear.

The further south this drifts the more time it will have over warm SST's.

Is the shear forecast favorable for development or is the ULL over Cuba going to continue west?

[MiamiensisWx]

Just looking at the convection, this system really is cutting off from the front quickly.

I was hoping maybe we would get one of those elongated slow to develop, weak, soakers that you often get when a low takes a long time to split off from a front due to shear.

The further south this drifts the more time it will have over warm SST's.

Is the shear forecast favorable for development or is the ULL over Cuba going to continue west?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1755254#p1755254

"Currently, as seen on GOES visible imagery, the system is encountering northerly shear on the eastern side of the UL ridge. This will inhibit development within the short term. As the system drifts further SW over the next few days, northerly shear should decrease as the ridge moves east and the wind vectors shift to the NE and ENE. With a weakening TUTT to the SE providing decent ventilation, intensification will likely take place at this point. Proximity to land won't be an issue; many TCs across the basin and GOM have developed and deepened very close to land, as evidenced by Jerry 1989, Danny 1997, Humberto 2007, and others. I definitely believe we will likely eventually witness TD (and TS) classification. Depending on inner core processes, it is possible that the system could approach strong TS or hurricane intensity. The most significant negative factor will likely be mid level dry air."

[RL3AO]

[stevetampa33614]

err looks like an unclosed low trying to close.

[RL3AO]

err looks like an unclosed low trying to close.

Remember that its scanning at around 10,000 feet there.

[Air Force Met]

Hey AFM, we dont need another Alicia to celebrate her 25th anniversary

All kidding aside the N GOM is very warm and its under a ridge. Things could wind up fast and the model runs are eerie similiar to Alicia.

LOL, those are just BAMS. And who takes those models seriously? I"m going to wait on the Global models. Secondly, didn't Alicia start much further south?

You really don't need to look at the particular output on the globals either...that won't mean much until you have a center per say. You also don't have to wait on the global output for the system since you can look at the global models now...and get a sense of what the steering flow will be. Given that all of them are forecasting a dominant high over the central US over the next couple of days...whatever does form will have to move west.

As far as Alicia goes...it didn't form that much farther to the south...the first advisory was at 27.3 N...but the actualy low that formed Alicia moved off the MS/AL coast before that. So...considering 91L should SW or WSW for a bit...it could easily form 60-90 nm away from where Alicia did...which isn't that far.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 91, 2008080218, , BEST, 0, 295N, 870W, 20, 1009,

[jaxfladude]

Hey you all in the drought areas can take this system if you want....NE Florida/SE Georgia has gotten enough rains for a while this last week of July, due in part to the influence of now invest 91L.....hope it does not come with too much of a punch.....
Head west young invest....

[Pearl River]

From New Orleans:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SHORT TERM...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS IN THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. RIGHT
NOW...CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
NEAR THE COAST. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME FORM OF A LOW FORMING
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. REFER TO THE MARINE SECTION
FOR MARINE IMPACTS...AND REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. OTHER THAN SOME MORNING CONVECTION SOUTH
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS...EVEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO GROW TO TOWERING AND RADAR ONLY SHOWS ONE
SHOWER OVER LAND. NVA BEHIND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEAR
AXIS PASSAGE COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER MOISTURE PROFILES HAS
CAUSED THE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WET
GROUND EVAPOTRANSPIRATED VERY HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S HAD PRODUCED HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD HAVE USED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY...BUT WAS ANTICIPATING AREAS OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS TO BE
MORE PREVALENT TODAY.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE HEAT
GENERATING MID LEVEL HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE/LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTH GULF. THE MODELS AGREE THAT SUNDAY WILL
SEE A BIT MORE RAIN AS DEEPER MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE AREA.
HAVE BLENDED THE ECMWF AND GFS TO GET DECENT QPF AND POP NUMBER`S
THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY BEFORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE AGAIN PART OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT HOPEFULLY NOT AS
LONG AS TODAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WETTEST DAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
LOW GETS DRAWN INTO THE AREA. NOTE...A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
LOW COULD KEEP MOST LAND AREAS RELATIVELY DRY. 22

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...SO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. 22

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY NOW STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. CLOSEST
CONVECTION IS OVER EXTREME NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND ABOUT 75 MILES OUT
INTO THE GULF. UNLESS PRECIP DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...00Z
TAF PACKAGE LIKELY TO HAVE NO MENTION OF CONVECTION.

ALL SITES LIKELY TO STAY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MCB. A
REPEAT OF THIS MORNING IS POSSIBLE AT MCB. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES
TOWARD MORNING WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO. 35

&&

.MARINE...
STILL AN AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE LA/MS/AL COAST BY ABOUT 75
MILES. THIS IS WHERE THE TROF THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS
SETTLED. THERE MAY BE A VERY WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF
MOBILE AT 19Z...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A CIRCULATION WILL
DEVELOP. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
REACH THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NHC IS MONITORING THIS
SYSTEM AND THEIR PRODUCTS WILL PROVIDE THE LATEST INFORMATION.

THE EFFECT ON THE MARINE AREA WILL BE TO INCREASE WINDS SOMEWHAT.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LIKELY TO BE NEARING EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA SUNDAY EVENING...AND MAY MOVE INTO THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE
LAND MASS. SEAS MAY GET AS HIGH AS 5 TO 6 FEET IN A FEW AREAS.

MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. 35

[perk]

Hey AFM, we dont need another Alicia to celebrate her 25th anniversary

All kidding aside the N GOM is very warm and its under a ridge. Things could wind up fast and the model runs are eerie similiar to Alicia.

LOL, those are just BAMS. And who takes those models seriously? I"m going to wait on the Global models. Secondly, didn't Alicia start much further south?

You really don't need to look at the particular output on the globals either...that won't mean much until you have a center per say. You also don't have to wait on the global output for the system since you can look at the global models now...and get a sense of what the steering flow will be. Given that all of them are forecasting a dominant high over the central US over the next couple of days...whatever does form will have to move west.

As far as Alicia goes...it didn't form that much farther to the south...the first advisory was at 27.3 N...but the actualy low that formed Alicia moved off the MS/AL coast before that. So...considering 91L should SW or WSW for a bit...it could easily form 60-90 nm away from where Alicia did...which isn't that far.

AFM what's your preliminary take on the future of this system.