Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[gatorcane]

We better hope for a fast developing system.If not,this potential Eduoard is a threat for the US down the road

What is your forecasting reasoning here? Considering 98L is more than 5000 miles away from the US clear across the Atlantic hugging the coast of Africa, there is no need to speculate . Its at least 12-14 days out at this point.

Not only that but it may never become Eduoard.

[blp]

This should start making a move to the WSW after it reaches the Cape Verdes.

850MB
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dlm1.GIF

500MB
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dlm2.GIF

[Aric Dunn]

This should start making a move to the WSW after it reaches the Cape Verdes.

850MB
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dlm1.GIF

500MB
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dlm2.GIF

yep.... as most of the models see a possible wsw motion ..

[gatorcane]

This should start making a move to the WSW after it reaches the Cape Verdes.

850MB
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dlm1.GIF

500MB
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dlm2.GIF

Indeed the WNW to even NW apparent motion is being induced by a shortwave passing just north of our invest. Its now pulling out and being replaced by a ridge which should very soon induce a more Westerly motion (by tomorrow). The key is how far WSW it will go? Looking at the synoptics, I would guess model guidance is going to show a WNW to NW motion for the next 6-12 hours and a bend towards the west and even WSW after that. Looks like it will traverse the MDR between about 15N and 20N, still a good candidate for recurvature IMHO although still too early to say.

[blp]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

30/0000 UTC 13.4N 17.6W T1.0/1.0 98L

[gatorcane]

This loop shows why the bend West is going to happen in the next 24 hours or so. In the upper-left hand part of the image you see low and mid-level clouds streaming WSW. That is the clue where it will head for the next 2-3 days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[curtadams]

Dmax now and heading into dry air. Should lose a lot of convection soon. But yeah, TS warnings might be needed for the Cape Verdes soon. Big circulation although really messy on the quickscat (the CoC is an L, not a point, and is something like 200 miles long).

[cycloneye]

Pic at 11:30 PM EDT:

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave...

[Weatherfreak14]

Pic at 11:30 PM EDT:

y does that look like a TD or TS to me.. Just by appearance.

[ConvergenceZone]

this low has been vigorious for days now...the envelop of low pressue is finally moving offshore...we have a player ladies and gentlemen...tomorrow morning visibles should be interesting, if they show what i think they might, TS watchs maybe hoisted for the Cape Verd islands...


extremely hard to not be a fish though...something to track maybe...

I agree with the Met that mentioned that this should be a fish, and even though it more than likely will be, it will be fun to track if it gets going........

[gatorcane]

I wonder if there will be a special tropical disturbance statement issued later tonight for the Cape Verde islands?

[kurtpage]

Anybody know the link to the Quicksat page?

[RL3AO]

Anybody know the link to the Quicksat page?

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/qscat_storm.pl

[stevetampa33614]

Well from what I can see with stearing its going to head WSW and not go fishing atleast not until around 45W.

Just my opinion. look at the steering.

Also a small open wave out in front at 35w looks like it may be blowing up a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

Well from what I can see with stearing its going to head WSW and not go fishing atleast not until around 45W.

Just my opinion. look at the steering.

well at least your a 900 year old time lord!!! Doctor Who is awesome

but yeah any wnw movement should be limited to wobbles at least in the short term

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cycloneye that looks like a tropical storm. The data from africa shows a southly wind on the eastern side, with a eastly on the northern side. I wish there was data out there for a "west" wind; yes quickscat kind of hints at one and last night shown one. But by just looking at it I would say 30-35 knots. Nice iinflow.

[stevetampa33614]

Well from what I can see with stearing its going to head WSW and not go fishing atleast not until around 45W.

Just my opinion. look at the steering.

well at least your a 900 year old time lord!!! Doctor Who is awesome

thanks. Pertwee was the best. So damn smart.

protip- I have put all the old doctor who episodes on you tube over the years for the fans who cant get the old series. just type in the episode name on the search bar

[Mecklenburg]

Pic at 11:30 PM EDT:

y does that look like a TD or TS to me.. Just by appearance.

it does look impressive... could edouard sprout from this?

[Aric Dunn]

885
ABNT20 KNHC 300531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB


still at a low potential