ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

[Mecklenburg]

it's now colored yellow on NHC

[HURAKAN]

If the LLC is able to keep generating bursts of convection over the next day or two, then it will find more warmer SST by about 40W.



After that, then we will have to worry about UL conditions for development.

[curtadams]

basically surrounded by SAL now - can't develop. Convergence would suck in dry air from all directions and snuff it. It was actually too strong over Africa - went to far N and pulled in too much SAL

[x-y-no]

basically surrounded by SAL now - can't develop. Convergence would suck in dry air from all directions and snuff it. It was actually too strong over Africa - went to far N and pulled in too much SAL

Doesn't look that bad to me:



I've seen systems develop in worse environments. And there doesn't seem to be any dry air chasing up behind, which is frequently the killer in the eastern Atlantic.

[Cyclenall]

I can't see this forming in the next 120 hours, I'm not thrilled with it like I was days ago.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 222338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE
DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[ts_kakolina]

22/2345 UTC 15.1N 25.5W TOO WEAK INV

[cycloneye]

They have the floater for 97L,but it looks sick as you can see.

[Brent]

Not impressed with this.

Looks like a few days at least of relative calm coming up once Dolly is gone. I'm looking forward to it actually. Dolly has been crazy(mostly before it formed when it was an invest).

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps look at this: Moving WSW at the moment.

[Recurve]

Is that it going through the cape verde islands?

[cycloneye]

Is that it going through the cape verde islands?

Yes,it moved over them.

[cooter]

Anyone think this wave will amount to anything? wHERE IT WILL GO? Someone refered to it having too much SAL? WHat is that? Just got on this blog and have not idea about tropical weather. Learning every post though!

[Sjones]

Looks like it just moved SW of the Cape Verde... I think it will be a slow developer that has plenty of potential!

[cycloneye]

Anyone think this wave will amount to anything? wHERE IT WILL GO? Someone refered to it having too much SAL? WHat is that? Just got on this blog and have not idea about tropical weather. Learning every post though!

First of all,welcome to storm2k.Here is a link,where all is explained in detail about what the sal (Saharan air layer) is.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... round.html

[blp]

Anybody have the latest quickscat on this. The latest one I found was from 19:23

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 1_97ds.png

It seemed to be around 16N at that time. But I definetely agree this thing is close to 15N and seems like it might get under that. Seems like it will be south of where the GFS initializes it.

[paintplaye]

Looks like it just moved SW of the Cape Verde... I think it will be a slow developer that has plenty of potential!

I agree and it is moving SW which means this will be something to watch down the line

[curtadams]

I don't think that SAL map does a good job of showing the problem. On the East Atlantic map you can see the dust encircling it on all sides but the N.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi thinks just Northeast of Puerto Rico/USVI, near 20ºN and 60ºW about Sunday.


JB's "Long Ranger" video showed a bunch of his analog year that featured early season activity near Texas, and almost all of his analog years that had an early TC near Texas had activity in/near miss Carolinas during the heart of the season. He didn't say this wave would affect Carolinas, just that models will be biased to recurve too early, like early models were on Bertha when it was near CV islands.


JB didn't mention today, but in the past, he has mentioned (I remember 2003 and Claudette) if Texas gets a storm in June or July, historically, it rarely sees any more TC action that season. based on the records, I guess.


So law of averages says Texas is in the clear after tomorrow.


Maybe.

[Sjones]

That would be great if it were to pan out that way.