H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[senorpepr]

the newest minobs..

west winds .....

261005 006 999 999 03
239005 005 999 999 03
261005 006 999 999 03
267005 006 999 999 0 275005

All these obs are flagged though FWIW.

However, that 03 means the SFMR is questionable. The west wind, which is a flight level wind, is NOT flagged. Otherwise, the last column would be a 2, rather than 3.

[WmE]

the newest minobs..

west winds .....

261005 006 999 999 03
239005 005 999 999 03
261005 006 999 999 03
267005 006 999 999 0 275005

All these obs are flagged though FWIW.

However, that 03 means the SFMR is questionable. The west wind, which is a flight level wind, is NOT flagged. Otherwise, the last column would be a 2, rather than 3.

Well, then I'd guess that the LLC is indeed closed. We may have a TS.

[Thunder44]

They made a sharp turn north, so they may be trying to close off a LLC around 11.5N 57.5W

[brunota2003]

If they do actually close off a center, dont they usually do a drop and a VDM?

[KWT]

I don't think we have a closed LLC, I've not seen any WNW winds so far so we will have to wait for the next pass to see if they can get that measurement.

[Thunder44]

If they do actually close off a center, dont they usually do a drop and a VDM?

Yes, but so far they haven't really been able to close off one.

[cycloneye]

On the last set west winds were found.

[KWT]

Well the last recon report proves I was wrong and this has almost certainly got a closed circulation based on that last report, got lots of WSW/W/WNW winds.

[txwatcher91]

So approximately where is the center located at? I want to look at it on visible and see how it looks.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm seeing "something" on 1km visible imagery at 12.7N 59.9W

[RL3AO]

So approximately where is the center located at? I want to look at it on visible and see how it looks.

Lowest pressure found so far is at 11 54'N 059 20'W

[Thunder44]

The center would be south of Barbados. They just made a sharp turn back NNE. My guess is they going to trying close it off, coming around from the east side first.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing "something" on 1km visible imagery at 12.7N 59.9W

I think that as a general rule if we have to guess if we see an LLC then it's probably not there.

When there really is an LLC it'll be readily apparent to all. I can't see anything at that spot, Derek. But I can see some strong NW shear affecting it now. Convection is pretty weak.

By the way, aren't you supposed to be anti-development and me pro-development?

[srainhoutx]

So you guys traded places this year as "good cop/bad cop". Thanks for your input as always.

[Derek Ortt]

I said I see "something"

probably an MCV or something so small scale that I had to zoom in with 1km imagery right on top of it to notice. It doesn't match with the ob, so its not at the surface

Looking good for some Friday night relaxation

[Cyclone1]

By the way, aren't you supposed to be anti-development and me pro-development?

I agree, it's a paradox.

[wxman57]

So you guys traded places this year as "good cop/bad cop". Thanks for your input as always.

I almost had typed "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist".

[wxman57]

New model guidance just out:

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1800 UTC

Strong signal for no upgrade.

[Brent]

New model guidance just out:

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1800 UTC

Strong signal for no upgrade.

this was released over 1 hour ago...still no information from the NHC website and that is where the official information is released publicly.

No info from the NHC probably means no upgrade.

and that came out at 3:49pm ET, not an hour ago.

[wxman57]

New model guidance just out:

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1800 UTC

Strong signal for no upgrade.

this was released over 1 hour ago...still no information from the NHC website and that is where the official information is released publicly.

As a side note...that intensity guidance makes this 73kts in just 96 hours..a major change from previous runs

Actually, the above was released about 3 minutes ago (1949 UTC WED JUL 16 2008). Another was released an hour ago.