ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[KWT]

No its because the SHIPS has this hitting S.America, take a look at the BAM suite...clearly it only has to gain slight latitude from now on to miss S.A.

[ronjon]

Euro & CMC take 94L through the central windwards and south of PR. HRWF through the N leewards. GFS and GFDL north of the leewards. BAM into SA. UKMET and NOGAPS don't develop it. Hows that for model consensus in the 5-7 day time frame? Might be better to go with climo right now.

[jasons2k]

Can't really go with anything until a LLC can develop.

[Ivanhater]

150hrs 18z GFS...further south and stronger..watch out PR!...

[cycloneye]

watch out PR!...

[Ivanhater]

168 OVER Hispaniola...

[KWT]

Takes the track of death on this run, right over the mountions of PR then Hispaniola, that sort of track has killed hurricanes before and they have never recovered.
Still the 18z showed this track last night then it changed to a more northerly track the run after that.
If it survives the trip overland then its a real threat to Cuba and Florida/Bahamas.

On the upside the ECM does take a very similar track as does the CMC so we will have to wait and see...

[brunota2003]

Isn't the 06 and 18Z runs the ones to take with a grain of salt? 00 and 12Z are the ones with all the new data in them.

[cycloneye]

I will wait for the 00z run as it has more data and if it has that same track,then it has to be taken more seriously.

[MiamiensisWx]

I will wait for the 00z run as it has more data and if it has that same track,then it has to be taken more seriously.

There's too much uncertainty; I wouldn't be overtly concerned simply because the 00Z run depicts a similar track. We need a defined LLC and the system needs to come within closer proximity to the islands over the next several days.

Regardless, you and others should certainly monitor 94L in the NE Caribbean.

[KWT]

I agree right now until we have a defined center then the models can only be used as a general guide to direction and nothing more. Still the problem for the Caribbean Islands is if it does take a W/WNW path then eventually it will find land.

[gatorcane]

Hispaniola matters some for sure, but once a system (especially a well-defined and strong) pops out to the other side where water temps are 85+ systems regenerate quickly.

It doesn't matter because Charley and Frances were supposed to go over Hispaniola but it never materialized...we are too early to speculate on this point.

[MiamiensisWx]

Hispaniola matters some for sure, but once it pops out to the other side where water temps are 85+ systems regenerate quickly.

...like Ernesto. Your forecasts worked out nicely with that hurricane into southeast FL! I'm not insulting or discrediting you, but I personally believe there is much more than high OHC/SSTs.

Shear and other thermodynamics/synoptics are more decisive.

[gatorcane]

Hispaniola matters some for sure, but once it pops out to the other side where water temps are 85+ systems regenerate quickly.

...like Ernesto. Your forecasts worked out nicely with that hurricane into southeast FL!!!

Thanks (I guess). NHC warned Ernesto could easily strengthen into a major hurricane before hitting South Florida after crossing the high mountains of Cuba --- but for some unknown reason that never materialized.

The point is that I don't like to rely on the high terrain of the Greater Antilles as a "protection" mechanism at all.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL goes more south in this run tracking thru the Northern Leewards:

236
WHXX04 KWBC 132329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.4 38.0 285./ 8.0
6 10.0 38.5 321./ 7.5
12 10.2 38.9 294./ 4.9
18 10.4 39.6 289./ 6.7
24 10.9 40.5 298./10.0
30 11.1 41.2 281./ 7.5
36 11.5 42.3 291./11.6
42 11.7 43.7 279./13.4
48 12.1 45.3 282./16.4
54 12.2 46.5 277./11.8
60 12.5 47.7 285./11.6
66 12.7 48.8 281./11.2
72 13.1 50.1 286./13.6
78 13.4 51.2 286./11.2
84 14.0 52.7 290./15.4
90 14.5 54.0 293./14.2
96 15.1 55.6 290./15.8
102 15.7 57.1 290./15.5
108 16.2 58.7 290./16.3
114 16.8 60.1 291./14.8
120 17.5 61.6 294./15.6
126 18.1 62.8 299./13.8

[KWT]

Yep a little further south on this run though should still miss PR just to the north it should give a wallop to the islands to the east.

Not liking these trends though, wonder how strong GFDL makes it this time.

[jhamps10]

Yep a little further south on this run though should still miss PR just to the north it should give a wallop to the islands to the east.

Not liking these trends though, wonder how strong GFDL makes it this time.

yeah looks like on that angle, PR may be spared ON THIS RUN!!!!!! BUT if it was to continue on that track, it might hit Hisponola's northern mountains but that far out is well foolish to think thus far.

[WeatherEmperor]

Quick question. At what time does the 18Z HWRF come out?

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not liking the new model trend tonight. The 18z GFS and the 18z GFDL both seem to spell possible trouble for Florida, and both tracks may also mean horrendous flooding along the northern Caribbean. This would really not be a good scenario for anyone, and I'm hoping the tracks shift a bit in the coming days to avoid the mountainous islands of the Caribbean to the north and thus lessen the flooding potential. We certainly do not need a Jeanne 2004 repeat!