Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Northern side doesn't look all that good but there is some good strong convection on the southern side, I thiunk the invest to its west isn't helping matter for this depression, esp if it ends up developing into a tropical depression as well. Still looks like its got some banding features as well.

[Thunder44]

It looks much better than it did yesterday. It looks like a TS already.

[Meso]

It's really gotten it's act together over the past few hours, wrapping up nicely.Already looking fairly large as well.I'm thinking it will become stronger than NHCs 35kt forecast

[KWT]

system has improved over the last few hours with the deep convection slowly centering over the center and now alsdo covering much of the northern part of the depressions circulation. Looks to have a good outflow channel on its southern quadrant and so I also think its going to get stronger then the 35kts forecasted, esp if 95E doesn't do anything.

Indeed I also agree that this may well be close to tropical storm status right now but maybe still got to ramp up a little in terms of winds.

[Chacor]

EP, 02, 2008062712, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1090W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1010, 240, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BORIS, M,

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Boris is here.

[KWT]

Ah yep looks like we are going to have our second tropical storm of the year in the EPAC. Have to admit it does look pretty decent right and whilst the convection is still mainly on the southern side of the circultion it still does look like a decent little system and IMO deserves to be upgraded to tropical storm status.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 271432
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

A CONVECTIVE BAND WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO -80C HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH
SAB AND TAFB...AND RE-EXAMINATION OF EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA
SUGGESTED 35 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL STORM BORIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35
KT...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY
GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODEL ANALYSES SHOW A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 115-135W. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
WESTWARD FROM MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF BORIS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
ALLOW BORIS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS SHOWN BY THE GFS GFDL AND HWRF. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE NEW FORECAST BEING
A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT IS
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO...WITH BORIS BECOMING STATIONARY OR MOVING EASTWARD AFTER
96 HR DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE
EAST. WHILE ANOTHER CYCLONE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE ECMWF
MAY BE MAKING THE SYSTEM TOO POWERFUL AND TOO LARGE. THUS...ITS
FORECAST TRACK FOR BORIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

BORIS IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THEY
FORECAST A PIECE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO MOVE WESTWARD AND PASS NEAR BORIS...ACCOMPANIED BY
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR. THIS WOULD LIKELY STOP
INTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR BORIS TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER 72 HR...BUT BY THAT TIME BORIS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS IS THAT
BORIS COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST
36 HR AND REACH A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 12.6N 109.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 13.0N 110.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 13.3N 111.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 13.4N 113.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 13.5N 115.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 13.5N 122.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 125.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BORIS...NO
THREAT TO LAND...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST OR ABOUT 715
MILES...1145 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 555 MILES...890 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...12.6 N...109.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[DESTRUCTION5]

Like I said before...The most boring storms out there...EPAC Westward Ho Storms...

[RL3AO]

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH
SAB AND TAFB...AND RE-EXAMINATION OF EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA
SUGGESTED 35 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL STORM BORIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35
KT...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

[KWT]

Whats interesting is that they say the current wind estimate may be conservative. Track looks like becoming a little more tricky as will the strength if 95E forms and I guess thats why they have this system reaching 50kts and not getting stronger then that I guess. I think the other option the NHC mentions about it getting stronger then expected within 36hrs is quite possible if 95E takes its time developing.

As for these storms being boring, maybe a little bit but they at least pass the time before the Atlantic wakes up.

[RL3AO]

This is interesting.

THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO...WITH BORIS BECOMING STATIONARY OR MOVING EASTWARD AFTER
96 HR DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE
EAST. WHILE ANOTHER CYCLONE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE ECMWF
MAY BE MAKING THE SYSTEM TOO POWERFUL AND TOO LARGE. THUS...ITS
FORECAST TRACK FOR BORIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.


So what is out there to its east? 95E is to the west.

[cycloneye]

[SkyDragon]

Finally, something that won't effect land. I hope this is like Carolotta-Daniel 2006!
Boris and Cristina

[KWT]

I think the NHC may have meant 95E but who knows!

Also you can see the slight shear on this system with the convection more on the southern side, also can see that good outflow on the SW side.

[Chacor]

Nope, Derek was talking earlier about a third disturbance.

[KWT]

Ah yeah I can see the system thats being mentioned, it shows up quite well on the 0z ECM run, forms close to 100W.