WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[Typhoon Hunter]

Fengshen is an awesome name and any storm designated that name deserves to be a monster! (Obviously wishing for a fish storm which won't cause anyone any harm.)

On a serious note the equatorward outflow is looking superb at the moment. I'll be eager to see what happens to Fengshen over night.

[KWT]

Its got a good looking structure, I'm fully expecting to get a thypoon out of this, looks like its got a small core as well from the sat.imagery I've seen of it but its got quite a large area of convection and cloud cover.

[Chacor]

958
WTPQ20 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0806 FENGSHEN (0806) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 10.0N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM WEST 120NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 12.6N 127.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 211200UTC 15.0N 126.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 221200UTC 17.2N 125.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

Upgraded straight to a 60 kt STS from 45 kts.

[KWT]

Yep I'm not surprised its really improved in terms of its structure over the past 3hrs with some deep convecttion developing close to the center of circulation.
Forecast may well be on the slow side of what occurs in terms of strengthening, I think its going to develop fairly rapidly from now on in with that very deep convection.

[Chacor]

[KWT]

You can really see the center of circulation with the deep convection on the eastern side mainly. Will have to wrap itself a little better before it gets too much stronger and that may be the main reason why the forecasts aren't too agressive with strength but we will see.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm.

[HURAKAN]

Irregular eye forming.

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0806 FENGSHEN (0806) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 10.8N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM WEST 120NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 13.1N 125.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 211800UTC 15.3N 124.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 221800UTC 17.3N 124.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[KWT]

Well there you go we have a thypoon, also on that track it does come very close to land indeed, wouldn't take much of a westward shift for it to make landfall there.

also if that clearing is the systems eye then thats a very large eye!

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/WTPN31 PGTW 192100
1. TYPHOON 07W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 127.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 127.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.3N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.5N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.6N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 127.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 925 NM
SOUTH OF NAHA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A SLIGHT CHANGE
IN INTENSITY AND TRACK. THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED TYPHOON STRENGTH
AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD DESPITE MODEL AIDS
AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS INDICATING A MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO ERODE AND MOVE TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR
AN EVENTUAL NORTHWARD TURN NEAR TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN PRIOR TO MAKING THE TURN AND ENTER A TEMPORARY WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENTAS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM NEAR TAU 60.
BECAUSE OF A LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TREND, INTENSITIES
HAVE BEEN STEPPED DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND
202100Z.

[Derek Ortt]

JMA indicating a significantly more intense storm than JTWC

[wxmann_91]

JMA indicating a significantly more intense storm than JTWC

JMA forecasts Fengshen to remain offshore while JTWC forecasts Fengshen to make landfall. It seems that the latter is more likely now. This will of course dramatically reduce the chances of Fengshen to attain Major status, but the Philippines could get some serious flooding rains.

[HurricaneRobert]

JMA forecasts Fengshen to remain offshore while JTWC forecasts Fengshen to make landfall. It seems that the latter is more likely now. This will of course dramatically reduce the chances of Fengshen to attain Major status, but the Philippines could get some serious flooding rains.

This storm is looking not fishy. And JTWC has a nice track aimed at Japan.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Power.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 11.1N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM WEST 120NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 13.2N 123.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 220000UTC 15.1N 122.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 230000UTC 17.4N 122.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[HurricaneRobert]

NHC has Atlantic Floater 1 labeled Fengshen for some reason.

[HURAKAN]

Soon to make landfall.