Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[StormspinnerD2]

I really don't get where people are getting the northward movement from; it is clearly moving almost due west based on the loops.

[NDG]

[Eyewall]

I really don't get where people are getting the northward movement from; it is clearly moving almost due west based on the loops.

im seeing the system as a whole move to the west but it seems like the low itself kinda organized a bit farther north.

[boca]

I agree with wxman57 he showed a model which had a high over Texas and extending out across the NW GOM. This system can only go W or SW but probably just drifting that way.I wish it would head Florida's way to dent the drought,not happening though.

[djones65]

Exactly eyewall! That is what I have seen as well!

[lilbump3000]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT



000
WONT41 KNHC 302348
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WONT41 KNHC 302348
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[KWT]

Yep Boca I saw that as well and got to admit there probably isn't anywhere else the system can go other then west or maybe WSW once it reaches the BoC.

Thats a very nice image NDG, it does seem like the system is trying to organise itself somewhat though I still doubt it will make it before it heads inland.

[StormspinnerD2]

As expected, the system is too close to land and too shredded at this point.

[MiamiensisWx]

STDS basically agrees with my coordinates and Stormspinner.

[Eyewall]

another thing is the high might not be fully established at the surface over the gulf yet, allowing the LLC to move a tad north of what is expected

[MiamiensisWx]

another thing is the high might not be fully established at the surface over the gulf yet, allowing the LLC to move a tad north of what is expected

The low level ridge is established, while the upper level ridge has been amplifying. No offense, but I trust the NHC's judgement and wxman57 over you.

[boca]

It is unusual that this system would move west this time of year.The high pressure over the GOM doesn't know the month is May.

[Eyewall]

another thing is the high might not be fully established at the surface over the gulf yet, allowing the LLC to move a tad north of what is expected

No offense, but I trust the NHC's judgement over you.

well its still over water and they expected it to be moving inland now. im not saying that this motion is going to continue.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is unusual that this system would move west this time of year.The high pressure over the GOM doesn't know the month is May.

Several tropical depressions have moved westward into Mexico during May and June. It's nothing "unusual".

[djones65]

Miami, what do you mean? 50 miles east of Belize is about 0.8 degrees longitude. The Belize coast is 88 so that would put a center at 87.2W Of course Belize is about 150 miles N to S so the latitude is somewhat of a guess, but would be about 17.3N if it was where I see the middle of the country is. Your diagram showed a 175 mile diameter area encompassing the Gulf of Honduras, but you were farther south and west of where the STDS placed it.

[KWT]

Yep the high pressure has been pretty well established for a little while now, it did look like it was going to weaken last week but its going to re-strengthen again over the next few days, anything that is going to form is going to head westwards, that also includes anything that forms in the 2-4 day time frame possibly in the BoC....IF it gets far enough north.

As I said before anything that tries to get going in May/Early June below 20N has about an equal chance of going any direction from W through to E.

[MiamiensisWx]

Miami, what do you mean? 50 miles east of Belize is about 0.8 degrees longitude. The Belize coast is 88 so that would put a center at 87.2W Of course Belize is about 150 miles N to S so the latitude is somewhat of a guess, but would be about 17.3N if it was where I see the middle of the country is. Your diagram showed a 175 mile diameter area encompassing the Gulf of Honduras, but you were farther south and west of where the STDS placed it.

My surface low and possible LLC location was denoted with the red L. The red L represents the exact location.

http://img133.imageshack.us/img133/5469/invest90lmay30082zj4.png

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

another thing is the high might not be fully established at the surface over the gulf yet, allowing the LLC to move a tad north of what is expected

No offense, but I trust the NHC's judgement over you.

well its still over water and they expected it to be moving inland now. im not saying that this motion is going to continue.

I agree eyewall, the system has moved much farther north then was expected even at 5pm last night. I expect it to head more northwestward over the next 12-18 hours. Yes theres a high pressure forming and that is whats going to force it westward, but to say that it can't and for people to slam someone that says it could do so; I feel is not a friendly way of discussion. We will have to see what this doe's, but I would be willing to say that it could head more northwestward instead of the west or west-northwest.

[NDG]

By the way convection is still firing up this evening, 50 miles to go might be long enough for continuing organization, like I said earlier it will be a close call in the morning before whole circulation center moves inland.