Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[storms in NC]

I think it might do a Floyd track. Run along the coast of Fl and turn on out to sea as it runs the south east coast.

[HurricaneBelle]

I think it might do a Floyd track. Run along the coast of Fl and turn on out to sea as it runs the south east coast.

Floyd never turned out to sea, unless by sea you mean the North Atlantic. It ran the coast:

[curtadams]

Everyone that keeps writing this off obviously doesnt remember how a little wave that struggled across the atlantic quickly started to develop right of the coast of Florida and became the costliest storm in histroy

Actually it's difficult to find a discussion of a faltering invest in which people don't make multiple references to Katrina that way. Maybe I'll start a "Katrina mention fizzle" count where I keep track of the number of Katrina references followed by dissapation (probably in the hundreds now on Storm2k) vs. the number of Katrina references followed by a surprising major (currently zero).

[Bocadude85]

Everyone that keeps writing this off obviously doesnt remember how a little wave that struggled across the atlantic quickly started to develop right of the coast of Florida and became the costliest storm in histroy

Actually it's difficult to find a discussion of a faltering invest in which people don't make multiple references to Katrina that way. Maybe I'll start a "Katrina mention fizzle" count where I keep track of the number of Katrina references followed by dissapation (probably in the hundreds now on Storm2k) vs. the number of Katrina references followed by a surprising major (currently zero).

Sure a lot of people may make references to Katrina on many invests but how many of those invests were projected to be in the Bahamas with a favorable upper level enviroment?

[artist]

Everyone that keeps writing this off obviously doesnt remember how a little wave that struggled across the atlantic quickly started to develop right of the coast of Florida and became the costliest storm in histroy

Actually it's difficult to find a discussion of a faltering invest in which people don't make multiple references to Katrina that way. Maybe I'll start a "Katrina mention fizzle" count where I keep track of the number of Katrina references followed by dissapation (probably in the hundreds now on Storm2k) vs. the number of Katrina references followed by a surprising major (currently zero).

all it takes is one.

[storms in NC]

I think it might do a Floyd track. Run along the coast of Fl and turn on out to sea as it runs the south east coast.

Floyd never turned out to sea, unless by sea you mean the North Atlantic. It ran the coast:

Sorry about that. I was talking about how it ran the coast of Fl. Floyd came very close to the coast of Fl.

[curtadams]

My point is that actually everybody DOES remember Katrina. And mentions it over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over.

Even when it's pretty inappropriate. And Katrina *was* a unique event. Yes, pop-up majors do happen from time to time but that just makes it noise to mention it every time. It's like discussing some obscure cyclogenesis mechanism in *every* invest thread.

[boca]

Because of all the model hype 92L is getting enormous amounts of attention, in reality its a weak tropical wave which could develop.If this wasn't getting the model support no one would give this a second thought on the looks of this right now.

[Lifesgud2]

Personally, it seems like this"disturbance" is poof. If it does flare up and become something, then perhaps we should pay attention. It just seems that everyone is -removed- here.

[Bocadude85]

My point is that actually everybody DOES remember Katrina. And mentions it over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over.

Even when it's pretty inappropriate. And Katrina *was* a unique event. Yes, pop-up majors do happen from time to time but that just makes it noise to mention it every time. It's like discussing some obscure cyclogenesis mechanism in *every* invest thread.

Ok well what you are forgetting is that this invest has model support for development in the Bahamas. I never said this is going to blow up into a cat 5 but yes this could be like Katrina Florida impact wise..so I feel my comparison to a struggling wave that adventually became a hurricane of the coast of Florida is appropriate.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Because of all the model hype 92L is getting enormous amounts of attention, in reality its a weak tropical wave which could develop.If this wasn't getting the model support no one would give this a second thought on the looks of this right now.

That's the point though. A persistant tropical wave at this time of the year in that position that is forecast to be in the SE Bahamas is much more of a threat to the CONUS then a Cat 5 in the central atlantic.

[artist]

Personally, it seems like this"disturbance" is poof. If it does flare up and become something, then perhaps we should pay attention. It just seems that everyone is -removed- here.

I don't see it as -removed-. I see it for what it is. Concern. Concern over models continually building this thing into a strong storm off the US. The NHC stating there is a 50% and greater chance of this becoming a storm. When there is a continual consensus it becomes worrisome.

[MWatkins]

My point is that actually everybody DOES remember Katrina. And mentions it over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over.

Even when it's pretty inappropriate. And Katrina *was* a unique event. Yes, pop-up majors do happen from time to time but that just makes it noise to mention it every time. It's like discussing some obscure cyclogenesis mechanism in *every* invest thread.

Totally disagree with you here.

During the 70's, 80's and early 90's people forgot about hurricanes because so few really impacted the US. The ones that did, like Hugo and Andrew, were long track hurricanes.

In the late 90's through 2004...we say a significant increase in US impacts, but again, from long-track hurricanes like Floyd, Ivan and others.

We have been very, very lucky that we have not seen a repeat of the 35 hurricane...but this type of late, in close development (the Katrina references in this thread are more about "in close" development, NOT what happened in the Gulf) should be remembered and recalled as much as possible to remind people that this CAN and WILL happen again.

MW

[artist]

My point is that actually everybody DOES remember Katrina. And mentions it over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over.

Even when it's pretty inappropriate. And Katrina *was* a unique event. Yes, pop-up majors do happen from time to time but that just makes it noise to mention it every time. It's like discussing some obscure cyclogenesis mechanism in *every* invest thread.

Totally disagree with you here.

During the 70's, 80's and early 90's people forgot about hurricanes because so few really impacted the US. The ones that did, like Hugo and Andrew, were long track hurricanes.

In the late 90's through 2004...we say a significant increase in US impacts, but again, from long-track hurricanes like Floyd, Ivan and others.

We have been very, very lucky that we have not seen a repeat of the 35 hurricane...but this type of late, in close development (the Katrina references in this thread are more about "in close" development, NOT what happened in the Gulf) should be remembered and recalled as much as possible to remind people that this CAN and WILL happen again.

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

My point is that actually everybody DOES remember Katrina. And mentions it over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over.

Even when it's pretty inappropriate. And Katrina *was* a unique event. Yes, pop-up majors do happen from time to time but that just makes it noise to mention it every time. It's like discussing some obscure cyclogenesis mechanism in *every* invest thread.

Totally disagree with you here.

During the 70's, 80's and early 90's people forgot about hurricanes because so few really impacted the US. The ones that did, like Hugo and Andrew, were long track hurricanes.

In the late 90's through 2004...we say a significant increase in US impacts, but again, from long-track hurricanes like Floyd, Ivan and others.

We have been very, very lucky that we have not seen a repeat of the 35 hurricane...but this type of late, in close development (the Katrina references in this thread are more about "in close" development, NOT what happened in the Gulf) should be remembered and recalled as much as possible to remind people that this CAN and WILL happen again.

MW

Man you Just nailed that @#$% to the wall...

[gatorcane]

My point is that actually everybody DOES remember Katrina. And mentions it over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over.

Even when it's pretty inappropriate. And Katrina *was* a unique event. Yes, pop-up majors do happen from time to time but that just makes it noise to mention it every time. It's like discussing some obscure cyclogenesis mechanism in *every* invest thread.

Totally disagree with you here.

During the 70's, 80's and early 90's people forgot about hurricanes because so few really impacted the US. The ones that did, like Hugo and Andrew, were long track hurricanes.

In the late 90's through 2004...we say a significant increase in US impacts, but again, from long-track hurricanes like Floyd, Ivan and others.

We have been very, very lucky that we have not seen a repeat of the 35 hurricane...but this type of late, in close development (the Katrina references in this thread are more about "in close" development, NOT what happened in the Gulf) should be remembered and recalled as much as possible to remind people that this CAN and WILL happen again.

MW

Well said Mr. Watkins many people on this board including myself were not around during the 1920s - 1940s where if you look back at tracks, you will see *many* more U.S hits, particular in Florida and from rapidly developing systems like the 1935 FL Keys hurricane that were NOT long-trackers. During this time FL was hit with a hurricane about once every two years and sometimes multiple times in a single season

Any system headed where 92L is heading should be closely watched for climatology reasons and especially since models are showing a near perfect environment for development down the road. If there is a system that gets into the area between the Bahamas and the Leewards, especially in Aug-October, I closely watch them because of the RI possibilities that systems in the past have experienced.

[storms in NC]

Because of all the model hype 92L is getting enormous amounts of attention, in reality its a weak tropical wave which could develop.If this wasn't getting the model support no one would give this a second thought on the looks of this right now.

Isn't that what every one does when there is a Invest of a wave. There was one call 94 Wasn't any thing but a wave didn't have a closed center at the time. But Every one was all over it and poor little Christabel have no one(LOL). So it goes on all the time. and everyone gripes about how it is dead it is poof or No it is not dead. No it is going here no it is going there. It happens every time. Some turn out to be a named storm. Dolly did. and this may.

[Dean4Storms]

If anything the models have had a tendency this year to under-develop the strength of the storms we've seen this year. The GFS has certainly struggled, so with some models like the EURO and GFDL showing the possibility of a deeper storm headed generally toward South Florida and the Straits there is always a possibility of a Katrina type rapid deepening, not out of the question for sure!

[storms in NC]

Hey dean Good to see you

[Cookiely]

Plus lets not forget the general lack of knowledge concerning intensity forecasting. In my humble opinion its in its infancy.