Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 24N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ANALYZED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL
ROTATION HAS PERSISTED WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
RE-DEVELOPING. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

[KWT]

Maybe Matt but with those T-numbers the NHC will not upgrade, and also I want to see this convection hold this time for at least another 18hrs, as it only went up about 6hrs ago.

[Gustywind]

03/0545 UTC 18.3N 48.4W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

What's matter? any explanation???

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe Matt but with those T-numbers the NHC will not upgrade, and also I want to see this convection hold this time for at least another 18hrs, as it only went up about 6hrs ago.

That seems unfair that it has to hold for 24 hours. How about 12 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

03/0545 UTC 18.3N 48.4W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

What's matter? any explanation???

Yes I know it is old, but I find it kind of laughable right now.

[Gustywind]

Why it is odd???, it's the latest given this weather site guy, i presume it's the latest if you look carefully: after if you tkink it's odd and kind laughable it's only you... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin (if available):
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/0600 UTC 22.2N 109.5W T1.5/1.5 93E -- East Pacific Ocean
03/0545 UTC 9.3N 103.9W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific Ocean
03/0545 UTC 28.2N 86.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
03/0545 UTC 11.9N 34.0W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
03/0545 UTC 18.3N 48.4W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean
Tkanks a lot

[KWT]

I think Matt is saying that it should not be too weak given the huge convective flare-up...

However Matt look at the time it says, 0545z...that was before the huge flare up developed and it did look bad at that time, I think by the time we get the next T numbers through they will increase again.

[Gustywind]

Yeah agree with you KWT, but i put here the objectivity of this weather site not the subjectivity of ours sometimes pertinents...thoughts . If the numbers are up let's see that, wait and see. But to resume for me there's nothing laughabale odd or not, i never joke with numbers in weather forecasting up or down and that's my last word without playing with the last sentence.... Tkanks my friends.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031128
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS VERY POORLY
ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[littlevince]

[KWT]

Yep that shows it nicely littlevince, maybe back upto 1.0-1.5 if it can hold that presentation IMO.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Obviously underging some shear, with most of storms displaced North of the center, but not looking bad, IMHO.

[KWT]

I agree Ed any circulation is probably right on the southern extent of that big flare up.

Interesting to see its still south of 20N given its now at 50W, should it develop though I would expect it to lift out pretty quickly, the key question is will it take a similar track to Bertha?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

As the tutt gets away from it and the SAL surge weakens as it moves farther away from Africa thing should only become better for this. In fact the shear don't look super strong over this at the moment so the convection is building over the well defined LLC. I would say the LLC is about a degree inside of the convection, so it is not on the edge. Also you can clearly see the inflow.

Nice system. This thing might just get TD first.

[KWT]

Its hard to say really Matt without getting high resolution Vis imagery but I strongly think that the center is probably on the southern edge of this but I may be wrong its not easy to know when systems have these large flare ups.

It does look good though right now, will be interesting to see the next T numbers.

[cycloneye]

It looks like circulation is in the southern end of convection.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye indeed that does seem to be the case, you can see the circulations southern extent by the way the clouds are curved around in that region.

[cycloneye]

03/1145 UTC 18.7N 50.0W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[KWT]

I'm a little surprised that the T numbers aren't higher given that decent convective burst but then again it is an improvement on the 'too weak' we had before!

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC ATCF best track for 99L.

,
AL, 99, 2008080312, , BEST, 0, 186N, 501W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/