ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[KWT]

Also note the CMC takes this NW/NNW in the next 18hrs upto where about it will likely be by the time it makes Yucatan landfall so the track from the CMC is quite possiblwe. Also yeah it really does strengthen this in the Gulf doesn't it!

GFDL takes it into north Mexico, though not all that far away from S.Texas.

edited.

[vaffie]

GFDL takes it into north Texas, though not all that far away from S.Texas.

i think you must have meant northern Mexico not "north Texas".

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC BAMS iniciate at the 2 PM NHC position.SHIP has a hurricane until a landfall in the Western GOM.

831
WHXX01 KWBC 201821
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1821 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080720 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080720 1800 080721 0600 080721 1800 080722 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 84.5W 19.8N 87.3W 21.3N 89.6W 22.8N 91.8W
BAMD 18.6N 84.5W 19.5N 87.0W 20.5N 89.6W 21.7N 91.6W
BAMM 18.6N 84.5W 19.6N 87.0W 20.7N 89.5W 22.0N 91.6W
LBAR 18.6N 84.5W 19.7N 87.2W 20.9N 90.2W 22.2N 92.9W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 57KTS 65KTS
DSHP 40KTS 42KTS 40KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080722 1800 080723 1800 080724 1800 080725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.7N 93.7W 27.0N 97.6W 27.7N 102.0W 28.4N 107.2W
BAMD 23.1N 93.3W 25.5N 95.9W 26.1N 99.1W 26.7N 104.5W
BAMM 23.5N 93.5W 25.7N 96.8W 26.2N 100.5W 26.6N 105.9W
LBAR 23.7N 95.1W 26.8N 97.6W 28.3N 99.3W 29.6N 101.9W
SHIP 73KTS 83KTS 77KTS 66KTS
DSHP 56KTS 66KTS 48KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 84.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 82.3W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 79.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 150NM

$$

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC SHIP forecast: A almost free ride from shear

Code: Select all

    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *       DOLLY  AL042008  07/20/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    44    48    53    57    65    73    79    83    80    77    71    66
V (KT) LAND       40    44    42    36    40    48    56    62    66    63    48    34    29
V (KT) LGE mod    40    43    46    35    38    44    51    60    69    74    57    37    30

SHEAR (KTS)        5     9     2     8     8     3     0     3     6    22    16    23    13
SHEAR DIR        228   213   273    96   126    23   110   340   337   330   345   339    17
SST (C)         28.7  28.5  28.0  27.7  27.8  28.3  28.3  28.1  27.8  27.4  27.2  27.4  27.9
POT. INT. (KT)   149   146   139   135   135   141   139   136   132   127   125   127   134
ADJ. POT. INT.   145   143   135   129   127   128   124   119   114   110   108   110   115
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C)      11    11    10     8     9     8     9     9    10    11    12    13    13
700-500 MB RH     73    74    71    72    70    69    70    69    74    64    65    64    67
GFS VTEX (KT)     11    13    12    14    14    14    16    15    15    12    11     8     5
850 MB ENV VOR    19    22    20     4    14    18    34    31    46    21    25    15     8
200 MB DIV        37    41    43    36    49    32    78    58    46   -10     3    16    29
LAND (KM)        304   151   -16   -61    54   295   336   255   173    64   -36  -157  -297
LAT (DEG N)     18.6  19.4  20.1  20.8  21.4  22.3  23.0  23.8  24.6  25.4  26.0  26.5  26.9
LONG(DEG W)     84.5  86.0  87.5  89.1  90.6  92.8  94.3  95.3  95.9  96.7  97.6  98.9 100.4
STM SPEED (KT)    14    16    16    16    13    10     7     5     5     5     6     7     7
HEAT CONTENT      73    83     1  9999     4    41    43    25    20    10  9999  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13      CX,CY: -10/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  533  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  24.6 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  74.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   9.  12.  13.  15.  15.  15.  16.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   5.   8.  12.  15.  16.  15.  14.  12.  11.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   2.   2.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       4.   8.  13.  17.  25.  33.  40.  45.  42.  39.  34.  29.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      4.   8.  13.  17.  25.  33.  39.  43.  40.  37.  31.  26.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042008      DOLLY 07/20/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.5 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  41.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  95.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  76.4 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  13.4 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  40.2 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    39% is   3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    26% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    17% is   3.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042008      DOLLY 07/20/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

[Brent]

Interesting to note the direction it's moving at now also.

[KWT]

Also note the SHIPS also get this upto hurricane status on this run as well before landfall so expect the next NHC forecast to show 65kts at least I suspect at one point.

Also good agreement on a landfall near the Texas/Mexico border but still too early to know if that will occur.

[Recurve]

How reliable would you say SHIPS would be at 84 hours on shear forecast?

[johngaltfla]

Holy smokes!!

I would expect to see a trough of that magnitude in January not July. If that verifies ... yeah, you gotta believe the Gulf ridge will erode some.

I have got to agree; then again this has got to be the whackiest July I have ever seen or can remember. This is going to get terrifying in August if this continues. I'm waiting for the next batch of model runs to be posted but if we get anything north of Corpus as a consensus oil shoots up to $140 instantly in the morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I believe SHIPS uses the GFS for wind fields/shear and one of the BAMS (medium?) for storm position. I will be corrected if wrong.


With the close concensus of the models, hard to argue, IMHO, with a landfall near/South of BRO.

[wxmann_91]

Holy smokes!!

I would expect to see a trough of that magnitude in January not July. If that verifies ... yeah, you gotta believe the Gulf ridge will erode some.

January troughs are much, much stronger than that. Because that trough will be east of Dolly the stronger it is, in actuality the stronger the Central U.S. ridge will be and the bigger turn to the west Dolly will make. A final landfall between Galveston and Tampico continues to be the general consensus.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If I were King of the World, I'd have the NWS offices that release sounding balloons at 12Z and 0Z do 6Z and 18Z special releases for the next couple of days. All of the Texas and Louisiana offices, and the South Florida offices as well, so all the models would have solid data each run.


I'd do that for every storm that has potential to become a hurricane and effect the US within the next 3 or 4 days. Although, for Cristobal, it would have been offices in the Carolinas, Virginia and Georgia.


Edit to add: I guess the Gulfstream is the next best thing, but that doesn't fly constantly. ACARS is good too, I suppose, but no website has real time ACARS data. But it would make the models.

[srainhoutx]

If I were King of the World, I'd have the NWS offices that release sounding balloons at 12Z and 0Z do 6Z and 18Z special releases for the next couple of days. All of the Texas and Louisiana offices, and the South Florida offices as well, so all the models would have solid data each run.


I'd do that for every storm that has potential to become a hurricane and effect the US within the next 3 or 4 days. Although, for Cristobal, it would have been offices in the Carolinas, Virginia and Georgia.


Edit to add: I guess the Gulfstream is the next best thing, but that doesn't fly constantly. ACARS is good too, I suppose, but no website has real time ACARS data. But it would make the models.

Ed, EWX is doing just that...snipet...

000
FXUS64 KEWX 202010
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...

OPERATIONAL NOTE..IN SUPPORT OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY..SPECIAL
6-HOURLY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS WILL BEGIN AT THE DEL RIO (DRT)
UPPER AIR SITE AND CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE FIRST
SPECIAL UPPER AIR LAUNCH WILL OCCUR AT 00Z (7 PM CDT) THIS
EVENING.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[Wx_Warrior]

Cant believe no one has posted.

GFS 18, 66hr

[Ed Mahmoud]

If I were King of the World, I'd have the NWS offices that release sounding balloons at 12Z and 0Z do 6Z and 18Z special releases for the next couple of days. All of the Texas and Louisiana offices, and the South Florida offices as well, so all the models would have solid data each run.


I'd do that for every storm that has potential to become a hurricane and effect the US within the next 3 or 4 days. Although, for Cristobal, it would have been offices in the Carolinas, Virginia and Georgia.


Edit to add: I guess the Gulfstream is the next best thing, but that doesn't fly constantly. ACARS is good too, I suppose, but no website has real time ACARS data. But it would make the models.

Ed, EWX is doing just that...snipet...

000
FXUS64 KEWX 202010
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...

OPERATIONAL NOTE..IN SUPPORT OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY..SPECIAL
6-HOURLY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS WILL BEGIN AT THE DEL RIO (DRT)
UPPER AIR SITE AND CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE FIRST
SPECIAL UPPER AIR LAUNCH WILL OCCUR AT 00Z (7 PM CDT) THIS
EVENING.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

Its good to be the king...

[ronjon]

First wrinkle I see in the 18Z runs is that the GFS brings the storm to the mexican coast in 48 hrs and then very slowly moves it northward for the next 24-30 hrs so that it moves in over S TX. The NAM, yes I know its not very good for tropical systems, brings the storm in further north near Corpus.

[canegrl04]

I think by morning the models will incude LA in the watch area.

[deltadog03]

I can't help to go back to 2 days ago when the GFDL was showing 94L/Dolly trying to shoot the channel and head towards houston/galveston. I AM NOT SAYING CAT5 TO HOU....I still think the short term the GFDL has to be doing the best with intensity and track. (the run from 2 days ago that is)

[dwg71]

I can't help to go back to 2 days ago when the GFDL was showing 94L/Dolly trying to shoot the channel and head towards houston/galveston. I AM NOT SAYING CAT5 TO HOU....I still think the short term the GFDL has to be doing the best with intensity and track. (the run from 2 days ago that is)

Model consensous has shown north mex extreme south texas for the better part of two days.

se tex/la are well out of 5 day nhc cone.

[deltadog03]

Well, all I Am saying is NONE of the models except the GFDL had this even getting close to shooting the gap of the channel. Look back at some of the past pages...I know where the model consensus is...I am not saying that its gonna go up there, but this storm has relocated further NE. (awaiting NHC recon for confrim though)

[dwg71]

latest coordinates are 19.3 and 85.5, that is as of 7PM CST per NHC.

Sat. shows center to be just on the western edge of convection near this coordinate, IMO.