ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[RL3AO]

no warning is needed for the MS Delta

Yeah. Its still two or three days away from Texas. If recon finds an closed LLC there won't need to be any watches.

[Aric Dunn]

It may look that way Aric but I've learnt that these lop-sided systems are often stronger then they look, would surprise me at all if this does have some TS winds in that new convective burst near the LLC over the last hour.
If TS winds are found, they will upgrade no matter how ugly a system looks, we've seen hurricanes with a not too different presentation this one in the past, so don't just judge on what they look like!

MiamiensisWx, yep if there is one advantage to having a slightly exposed circulation its that its easier to track these systems.

im not saying they wont find TS winds. I just said there is no real organized deep convection.

[MiamiensisWx]

no warning is needed for the MS Delta

In this case, I agree. All of the potential 1-min TS wind vectors are associated with the thunderstorms SE of the LLC, where the winds are mixing to the surface. Note that recon is also reporting meager winds north and west of the convection. This is a classical sheared system (TD/TS?) that has been also encountering mid level dry air, which is transported to the boundary layer. However, I suspect dry air will become a less significant inhibiting factor as the low level moisture starts to increase within the boundary layer. WV imagery is indicating that the ML dry air is decreasing. Note that low level temp dewpoints are slowly increasing along the coast and spreading NW. Overall, stronger convection will develop, possibly aided by tonight's diurnal maximum.

[NDG]

Due to the proximity to the LA coast I am sure TS watches or warnings will be posted from the MS delta and westward.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I won't be surprised weither they ISSUED one or not, either way it's still close to land and the NHC will make that call!!!!!!!

[galvestontx13]

One more comment such as this and it will be vacation time!!! If you can't be respectful don't post!!!

THIS IS A WARNING FOR ALL CONCERNED!!!WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANYMORE POSTING SUCH AS THIS AND DELETIONS AND SUSPENSIONS WILL BEGIN IMMEDIATELY IF IT CONTINUES![/quote]


uhhh I was talking about him saying all the other sites are a waste of time, but not the ghcc.

[KWT]

I think it looks pretty decent Hurakan on that, obviously lop-sided but not badly organised. Still I agree with MiamiensisWx it does have a classic lop sided look right now. I also agreethat the mid level dry air should slowly mix out but I don't think it will ever really totally lose the lop sided look unless it really beefs up in a way that is totally unforecasted.

[Honeyko]

no warning is needed for the MS Delta

I disagree. Given the now discernible western heading and readily-apparent circulation on VIS, and increasingly healthy appearance of convection and southerly inflow, I now have every reason to believe those Delta shrimp farms are going to be seeing very hard gusts in bands by 2am (or twelve hours from now). http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html Watch for cells to begin appearing near sunset on the northern side of the circ as the southwestern inflow jet begins to wrap around. Anybody under one of those will see surface conditions jump from 15kts NE to 40/50kt E squalls. It may not meet MSW criteria, but TDs are usually accompanied by TS warnings.

[RL3AO]

no warning is needed for the MS Delta

I disagree. Given the now discernible western heading and readily-apparent circulation on VIS, and increasingly healthy appearance of convection and southerly inflow, I now have every reason to believe those Delta shrimp farms are going to be seeing very hard gusts in bands by 2am (or twelve hours from now). http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html Watch for cells to begin appearing near sunset on the northern side of the circ as the southwestern inflow jet begins to wrap around. Anybody under one of those will see surface conditions jump from 15kts NE to 40/50kt E squalls. It may not meet MSW criteria, but TDs are usually accompanied by TS warnings.

1. Lets see if we have a closed LLC.
2. I would be shocked if they issued a ts warning for the Delta.
3. Maybe a TS watch.

I don't see how the delta is likely to have TS winds in the next 24 hours.

[NDG]

Reconn is getting ready to intercept the center and get into the SW quadrant in the next 10 minutes.

[BigA]

Reconn is getting ready to intercept the center and get into the SW quadrant in the next 10 minutes.

The moment of truth is at hand! Though I think some sort of llc is apparent from visible imagery.

[Aric Dunn]

ok we all know that convection can go from nothing to a huge burst in a matter of hours. with that said currently we have no such developing convection not saying it wont happen here shortly but right now its waning and is minimal and disorganized. I agree however that with the presence of a closed well defined surface circulation the likely hood of such a burst to happen in the short term is high. also to note on the loop i've posted the cloud tops near the center or anywhere for that mater are barely -30 to 35C right now which hardly constitutes deep convection.. so when a burst occurs that is note worthy you'll no it by some deep reds and oranges.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html


well as i was writing that a new image came in and show a small small burst starting to show which could be the start of a larger burst here shortly

[NDG]

Pressure down to 1007mb

[Honeyko]

Here's a nice buoy-date page for those who don't already have one: http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/buoy4.htm

[RL3AO]

SSE winds on the east side and east winds on the north side. Half way to a closed low.

[stevetampa33614]

Pressure down. 1007

edit Oh beaten

[freport_texas21]

Recon not finding west winds. Low must not be closed off yet?....

[KWT]

With this sort of system Aric I wouldn't be looking for those large bursts that cover the entire system there is too much in the way of mid level dry air still coming into the circulation for that IMO.

Recon should be heading to the west/SW of the center on the next set of obs, should probably see southerly winds from this next set if we have a LLC.

[stevetampa33614]

Recon not finding west winds. Low must not be closed off yet?....

Not yet. they may yet find them.

[RL3AO]

Recon not finding west winds. Low must not be closed off yet?....

They haven't investigated the west and south side yet.