ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[MiamiensisWx]

Since mid level dry air does not appear to be significantly impacting the inner core, this system has an excellent opportunity to attain 95 kt 1-min winds, which is the threshold (border) of Category 2/3 intensity. Since the 250-300 mb wind vectors are parallel to the movement of the TC, the trough is inducing an ideal poleward outflow channel and forced ascent. The combination of this factor and cooler mid level temperatures (and steeper lapse rates) is contributing to very intense convection, which is likely mixing the strong winds to the surface. In addition, radar organization is still improving, as evidenced by the slow contraction of the eye and the strengthening eyewall convection. Overall, marginal (100 kt) intense hurricane intensity is not out of the question for a brief period during the TC's passage over the northern Leeward Islands.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/volcano/SOUFIR.GIF

[KatDaddy]

Omar is closing in on the Virgin Islands. Currently winds gusting to 35mph. You guys stay safe tonight. From the IKE survivers, you are in our thoughts tonight. Take care.

[MiamiensisWx]

You've got my prayers and good thoughts in abundance...for all of those who are in the path...and those who are close enough to the path to be rightfully concerned.....sincerely sending well wishes to each and everyone of you...may the light of dawn reveal a landscape and people untouched and as beautiful as ever

I'll echo those thoughts... although many people (and myself) are extremely intrigued by TCs, no one (obviously) appreciates the damage or loss of life to anyone or any locale. I've experienced multiple TCs in south Florida, so I definitely empathize with everyone in the NE Caribbean...

That's the paradox of TCs... the aftermath and effects of a TC are FAR WORSE than the actual TC itself...

[Gustywind]

You've got my prayers and good thoughts in abundance...for all of those who are in the path...and those who are close enough to the path to be rightfully concerned.....sincerely sending well wishes to each and everyone of you...may the light of dawn reveal a landscape and people untouched and as beautiful as ever

Could we luck out with the hurricane force winds...or at least the eye wall...sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI?

Sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI or NOT we have a cat 2 cane very close to 3 in vicinity of the BVI, and the others Leewards. I sincerely appreciate your interrest of the details, but for the moment others things are much important than that, (you dont' tkink that ) because worst weather conditions are expected.
So knowing if Omar will pass between St. Martin and the US & British VI...is not the most important with my untrained eyes , if Omar could be nothing more than a cat 2 i will HONESTLY appreciate jinft, tkanks a lot for all , just a wish pray for us in the Leewards especially the BVI and the Northern Leewards ( St Marteen and St Barth graciasss )!!!

TKANKS MYS FRIENDS i enjoy your replies

[Gustywind]

Since mid level dry air does not appear to be significantly impacting the inner core, this system has an excellent opportunity to attain 95 kt 1-min winds, which is the threshold (border) of Category 2/3 intensity. Since the 250-300 mb wind vectors are parallel to the movement of the TC, the trough is inducing an ideal poleward outflow channel and forced ascent. The combination of this factor and cooler mid level temperatures (and steeper lapse rates) is contributing to very intense convection, which is likely mixing the strong winds to the surface. In addition, radar organization is still improving, as evidenced by the slow contraction of the eye and the strengthening eyewall convection. Overall, marginal (100 kt) intense hurricane intensity is not out of the question for a brief period during the TC's passage over the northern Leeward Islands.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/volcano/SOUFIR.GIF

Pertinent post, difficult to not be agree even if it's your point of view, but it seems highly credible 100kts is plausible given all the elements mentionned, but let's see what Omar will really bring on the islands...

[KatDaddy]

Take care Gustywind and be safe. All of you in the Islands have friend who care at S2K.

[Gustywind]

Take care Gustywind and be safe. All of you in the Islands have friend who care at S2K.

Ohhh tkank you I appreciate your intention Kat Daddy and all we keep the faith i feel the power of the links of SK2 my friends, i bring you a gustywind of respect !!!

[MiamiensisWx]

Sneaking between the passage between St. Martin and the US & British VI or NOT we have a cat 2 cane very close to 3 in vicinity of the BVI, and the others Leewards. I sincerely appreciate your interrest of the details, but for the moment others things are much important than that, (you dont' tkink that) because worst weather conditions are expected.
So knowing if Omar will pass between St. Martin and the US & British VI...is not the most important with my untrained eyes , if Omar could be nothing more than a cat 2 i will HONESTLY appreciate jinft, tkanks a lot for all , just a wish pray for us in the Leewards especially the BVI and the Northern Leewards ( St Marteen and St Barth graciasss)!!!

Since the TC will not be interacting with a boundary or the baroclinic region slightly farther north, it is probable that the radius of hurricane force winds will only slowly increase in size (areal coverage) over the next 24 hours. Therefore, JinFTL's point is valid. A small variation in the heading and track will make a significant difference for Sint Maarten, Saint Croix, and other areas, since the strongest winds will be occurring east of the center (due to the forward speed and synoptic/thermodynamic set-up). Secondly, true Category 1/2 (or even very strong TS winds) are much stronger than some people may suspect... take it from my experience, since I encountered marginal Category 1 conditions during Wilma in southeastern Florida.

This event (for what it's worth) will likely be the strongest TC to impact the northern Leeward Islands since Georges 1998 and Lenny 1999.

Bump for Gusty...

Take a Category 2 TC seriously, and take care...

[KatDaddy]

You are very welcome. This is what makes S2K a special place for weather fanatics.

[Gustywind]

15/2345 UTC 16.6N 65.2W T5.0/5.0 OMAR -- Atlantic Ocean
Big Baby is healthly and if these numbers are continuing to improving Omar will not waste its time for a 100kts attempt just near or on the islands...that won't be unhopefully the best scenario....

[carolina_73]

Can anyone tell me if there are people living on the smaller Islands west of Anguilla? Places like Dog Island, Prickly Pear Cays, and Seal Island. They might end up in the eye depending on all the wobbles. Everyone in Omar's path stay safe and my prayers are with you guys.

[KatDaddy]

He looks very impressive on radar and continues to wrap up.

[Gustywind]

You are very welcome. This is what makes S2K a special place for weather fanatics.

tkanks, you're right

[MiamiensisWx]

Examples of damage from Category 1 or marginal Category 2 sustained winds:

Wilma in Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Image is courtesy of Mike Theiss (Ultimate Chase).

NOTE: Category 1/low end Category 2 conditions affected the Fort Lauderdale region.

Wilma in Naples, Florida

NOTE: TS/Category 1 conditions affected the Naples region.

[JonathanBelles]

I cannot see from the NHC map, but which islands are closest to the NHC track right now?

[BatzVI]

Heavier rain has started from the drizzle we had almost all day and the wind is gustier....but not too bad yet.....gonna be a long night.....take care everyone in the islands, stay safe......check in as soon as you can after this is over.....

[ROCK]

Take care Gustywind and be safe. All of you in the Islands have friend who care at S2K.

I echo these sentiments Gusty. Me and Kat live right down the street and we know what your about to go through......Hunker down buddy....and hang tight.....


Paul

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

Take care Gustywind and be safe. All of you in the Islands have friend who care at S2K.

I echo these sentiments Gusty. Me and Kat live right down the street and we know what your about to go through......Hunker down buddy....and hang tight.....


Paul

Always a pleasure to read this type of reply Paul, i enjoy it , be blessed my friend; sincerely tkanks!

[HURAKAN]

15/2345 UTC 16.6N 65.2W T5.0/5.0 OMAR -- Atlantic Ocean