ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[shah8]

that was the gfdl for tropical depression 3 off of SC. Not 94l

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO

South of Brownsville

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[KWT]

What a crazy run, I think we will have a better chance of developing once we reach the Gulf but for it to become a top end cat-4 (135kts is a little above the ground, would come in about 130kts) is utter madness!

[funster]

What a crazy run, I think we will have a better chance of developing once we reach the Gulf but for it to become a top end cat-4 (135kts is a little above the ground, would come in about 130kts) is utter madness!

We have seen quite a few powerful systems over the past several years that have developed very rapidly. I think it's the clobbering of Houston that is madness inducing.

[KWT]

Yeah we have but I think to forecast a open wave to go on and become a cat-4/5 in about 96hrs suggests that there is either super faovrable conditions up ahead of it or the model is big time over doing strengtheing.

By the way HWRF also makes this a category-4 with a central pressure of 915!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember the models are really really bad when it comes to strength forecasting. In fact past 24 hours they hardly have a clue.

I would just watch the system and see if it can even close off a LLC for crying out load before I would even think that this could be possible.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL:

[bWHXX04 KWBC 191131
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.7 76.3 285./17.1
6 15.2 77.8 290./15.2
12 16.1 79.2 302./16.3
18 16.8 80.3 304./12.7
24 18.3 81.4 322./18.5
30 20.1 82.9 320./22.9
36 21.3 84.0 317./15.5
42 22.1 85.7 297./17.1
48 22.7 87.0 295./13.5
54 23.6 88.4 302./16.1
60 23.5 89.6 267./10.6
66 23.7 90.1 285./ 5.3
72 24.3 90.8 309./ 8.4
78 24.7 91.2 317./ 5.2
84 25.3 91.6 327./ 7.1
90 25.9 91.9 336./ 6.6
96 26.6 92.0 350./ 6.9
102 27.5 92.5 332./10.7
108 28.1 93.0 321./ 7.2
114 28.8 93.4 330./ 7.7
120 29.7 93.9 326./ 9.9
126 30.4 94.9 308./11.0

][/b]

[Dean4Storms]

Man if this run of the GFDL plays out you might as well say bye bye to $4.00 per gallon gas.


This run wouldn't be totally out of the question.

[Starburst]

I do not think it will be a cat 5 storm, at least I hope not. The BOC has had a category 5 storm in July though if I remember correctly was it not hurricane Emily? I think she was a cat 3 though when she actually plowed into Mexico.

[canegrl04]

Our local forecaster here in Dallas mentioned this system.Said it may bring rain chances to us next week.I can't believe it went from a crash into Central America to GOM This may be hurricane Dolly in the Gulf. Holy Cow!

[Squarethecircle]

I'll believe what I see when the GFDL stops making it a tropical storm in the second frame.

[wxman57]

The problem with the intensity forecasts is that none of the models does very well forecasting the impact of shear on a developing TC. GFDL has always had a problem with shear, and the HWRF isn't much better. SHIPS/DSHP looks at an enormous area for potential shear, so it tends to not develop smaller systems that may be south of a shear zone in that large shear analysis area. I'm not too concerned about a Cat 4 or 5 hitting Houston as I sit here eating my breakfast (at work).

[srainhoutx]

Still have tape on Bones' mouth I take it. Thanks for the update wxman57.

[jinftl]

Without a LLC to initialize models from, how much stock can be put in any outcome shown by a particular run? Even a 1 degree difference in lat/long where the LLC is initialized could lead to hugely different tracks down the road.

[Wx_Warrior]

Morning all!

12z, 96h GFS

[wxmann_91]

Without a LLC to initialize models from, how much stock can be put in any outcome shown by a particular run? Even a 1 degree difference in lat/long where the LLC is initialized could lead to hugely different tracks down the road.

Strongly agree with this. To add to this, slightly different tracks will produce drastically different results in the intensity department. The more N/E this goes the greater the time it has to consolidate and strengthen before making a final landfall.

[cycloneye]

35 kts:

WHXX01 KWBC 191842
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080719 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 0600 080720 1800 080721 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 79.7W 16.3N 83.0W 17.1N 85.7W 17.6N 87.8W
BAMD 15.7N 79.7W 16.3N 82.1W 17.1N 84.4W 18.1N 86.6W
BAMM 15.7N 79.7W 16.4N 82.2W 17.4N 84.6W 18.3N 86.6W
LBAR 15.7N 79.7W 16.5N 82.8W 17.5N 86.2W 18.5N 89.7W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 52KTS 60KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 52KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080721 1800 080722 1800 080723 1800 080724 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 89.6W 22.0N 92.4W 25.2N 95.2W 27.5N 99.2W
BAMD 19.1N 88.7W 21.1N 91.9W 22.1N 94.3W 22.5N 97.9W
BAMM 19.6N 88.8W 22.6N 92.2W 24.8N 95.3W 26.0N 99.5W
LBAR 19.7N 93.0W 22.8N 97.6W 25.2N 99.6W 26.1N 101.2W
SHIP 69KTS 78KTS 76KTS 70KTS
DSHP 45KTS 42KTS 40KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 79.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 76.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 72.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Ed Mahmoud]

This post by WxMan57 is copied from main 94L thread. But strong East flow at 200 mb may explain why Deep BAM aims farther South than shallow BAM, plus it seems a good explanation on why 94L is in no hurry to organize.

Ok, those of you wondering when this darn thing will develop, I've made a few charts from the 12Z GFS that may help to determine that. I plotted 200mb wind barbs in pink and surface pressure in 0.5mb increments in yellow. The first chart is for 18Z tomorrow. Note the 40-70 kt easterly winds from near the Yucatan Channel to the northern Yucatan. Not an ideal environment to say the least.



Now let's look at the same chart for 15Z Monday. Much better, but still not great. Easterly winds 20-30 kts with the ridge over the northern Gulf weakening fast:



Now let's look at Monday night (06Z Tuesday). Upper-level high right over 94L. Perfect conditions for development, according to the GFS, at least. So it may take a while to get its act together. May not get that LLC until sometime on Monday. Definitely doesn't have one now.

[KWT]

12z GFDL comes in with nearly as much strength as Bret from 1999 in a similar region, I sus-pect the 06z solution is far more likely but we will see, I agree with what wxman57 said earlier.

[wxman57]

I made a plot of some of the better consensus models and included the latest GFDL, which seems to be off crack now. The TVCN and IVCN are Track and Intensity variable-model consensus runs. The forecasters choose the components (models) to include or throw out. THe TCCN and TVCC are corrected versions of those variable-model consensus runs. The consensus has remained fairly constant for the past day or so - northern Mexico to extreme south Texas.