TC Bertha

[KWT]

Yeah those lower SST's could be a issue for this system, if it can get upgraded before that point though then it at least has a fair chance of surviving even if it goes over those 25C SST's for a little while. The exact track is going to be very key it has to be said, the longer it can keep due west the better for it. Once you get to 40-45W SSt's become much more favorable for development.

Hurakan, you missed a lot of fun whilst you were gone!

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010900.GIF

Circulation very clear and convection is beginning to increase in almost all quadrants.

[gatorcane]

we actually want 92L to deepen like SHIPS predicts so that it recurves quicker. If it stays weak it will head West generally. The CMC forecasts it to be quite a bit West in 126 hours. We all know that the CMC has done very well with waves of this nature before while other global models wanted to recurve too quickly so we'll see what happens (I'm thinking 2005 here where the evolution of Katrina from an African wave developing in the SE Bahamas is a perfect example).

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC IS JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH WELL DEFINED
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
ACTUALLY DISPLACED EAST OF THE WAVE NEAR 12N20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE
FROM 11N-14N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 400NM E AND 100NM W
OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-10N. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED
AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
So calm down

[KWT]

Ah yes Hurakan convection increasing and right over the center as well, I fully expect to see code red soon enough!

Gatorcane, agreed we want it to speed up and also get stronger faster because some of the models are closing up any weakness in the high by 180hrs and re-centering the high a little further west.

Still looking very high that this will be re-curve just going to be a matterof how far west it will get I suppose, the further west the more chance it will have to get stronger under warmer SST's.

[HURAKAN]

[jpwxman]

I vote for "relax"!

[KWT]

There is plenty of convection around the center Hurakan though you can see still the LLC where there is breaks in the convection.

the big amount of posts from earlier was because the NRL site came up with 02L no-name and you know what the site goes like when that happens. It turned out to be a false alarm however.

[senorpepr]

I vote for "relax"!

I vote for "freak out!"



lol... just kidding...

[cheezyWXguy]

I bet that during the D-max tonight a lot of that loose convection broadly swirling around the center will begin to consolidate and i think theres a chance we could see it become a depression sometime tomorrow or the next day, but this is just my idea.

[Lowpressure]

I have to admit that is truly amazing how the attitude and mood of this thread can shift so dramatically on a NRL site typo or noname. This is still the same system with the same potential is it had 6 pages ago. If fact, it looks better now that it has all day. We all are excited about the potential this has this early and this far east but be patient.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I vote for "relax"!

Judging by post above yours, with almost no clouds tops as cold as -70ºC, implying at best moderate convection, I vote with you.

Relax

Now I have bad 80s gay disco playing in my brain.

[KWT]

I agree lowpressure indeed it has got a little better convective coverage over the last few hours and we've still got the Dmax to come as cheezyWXguy has pointed out. This far east to have anything close to depression like this one is pretty uncommon so we shouldn't be expecting anything to get going too quickly.

Now 97E looks like getting towards Td status quickly!

[Gustywind]

I vote for "relax"!

Judging by post above yours, with almost no clouds tops as cold as -70ºC, implying at best moderate convection, I vote with you.

Relax

Now I have bad 80s gay disco playing in my brain.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC IS JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH WELL DEFINED
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
ACTUALLY DISPLACED EAST OF THE WAVE NEAR 12N20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE
FROM 11N-14N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 400NM E AND 100NM W
OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-10N. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED
AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
So calm down

I vote relax + CAL DOWN we should see more than that keep your energy instead of... you have the answer

[MiamiensisWx]

I have to admit that is truly amazing how the attitude and mood of this thread can shift so dramatically on a NRL site typo or noname. This is still the same system with the same potential is it had 6 pages ago. If fact, it looks better now that it has all day. We all are excited about the potential this has this early and this far east but be patient.

This is easily the most accurate post I briefly noticed. Since I altered my original expectations, I have remained consistent in regards to my view that tropical cyclogenesis will occur with this system.

On another note, visible satellite data indicates the LLC is moving very slightly north of due west.

[brunota2003]

Let the wobble wars begin!

[littlevince]

RGB 18:00 UTC

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Nice images Hurakan you can see the circulation quite well on some of those image though you can also see the lack of really deep convection as well, maybe that will change as we head into the overnight hours this side of the Atlantic.

[ekal]

Based on that microwave imagery, the LLC looks to be at 12N 20.5W. That's a bit to the east of the deepest convection (as others have noted), but the imagery also shows a curved band trying to wrap around the south side of the LLC.

With the lack of co-location between the MLC and the LLC, I don't expect classification today, but chances still look good down the road.