ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

The ever-more-obvious eye is looking to make a run right down the middle of Jamaica.

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Gus appears to be trying to seperate itself from the large area of convection to the SE of the center. I would say that Jamaica has put the hold on any further intensification for the next 12 hours or so.

Appears heading due west or slightly north of it. May skirt northern coast.

[93superstorm]

Will recon fly over jamaica with the eye being over land soon?

[Frank2]

It really doesn't look like much of an eye at this time, since it's open to the S and SE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

the entire system seems to have a "shrimp-like" appearance to it at the present, since the outflow is still restricted to the north...

Don't give up hope folks - everything will work out...

[alicia83]

I didn't wanna waste words, so I just shortened prewarning to prewarn. And as for it being the media, I know, but I also remember the NHC calling the mayor? of New Orleans in advance to tell him K was likely to strike there, before it was public knowledge. I think it's entirely possible word's been passed to those in govt. positions. I'm just guessing here. I'm not in LA so I don't know what the media is reporting or not reporting there as regards to movement, and speculated intensity of Gus.

IIRC, that was immediately before the advisory was released and when Katrina was in the GOM just over 72 hours from landfall with very tight model clustering. That's a lot different than a guess 5 days away.

Thanks, Jasons. I didn't know how far in advance New Orleans was warned. That clears that up.

[dwg71]

The ever-more-obvious eye is looking to make a run right down the middle of Jamaica.

I do not believe there is an eye associated with Gus atm. Appears that cloud tops are warming due to interaction with land. It will be hard to monitor progress for the next 12 hours, unless there is a center reformation (north or south) of island.

[KWT]

I think its pretty much heading due west down the spine of the island as everyone else is saying. There are some fairly decent sized mountions though Gustav probably won't be spending a huge amount of time near the peaks unlike when Haiti did a number on it.

Inner core looks very well developed now, I'll be shocked recon doesn't find a hurricane now.

[Frank2]

Here's the link again to the Jamacian Met Service radar:

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

[dwg71]

I think its pretty much heading due west down the spine of the island as everyone else is saying. There are some fairly decent sized mountions though Gustav probably won't be spending a huge amount of time near the peaks unlike when Haiti did a number on it.

Inner core looks very well developed now, I'll be shocked recon doesn't find a hurricane now.

Gonna be tough with center over land... I would not expect a hurricane by 4PM, jmo. I also expect a center reform to the north of the islands coast in the next 6-12 hours.

[KWT]

The ever-more-obvious eye is looking to make a run right down the middle of Jamaica.

I do not believe there is an eye associated with Gus atm. Appears that cloud tops are warming due to interaction with land. It will be hard to monitor progress for the next 12 hours, unless there is a center reformation (north or south) of island.

It looks like an eye on the high resolution imagery, its not totally there yet and still developing but its clear as day its an eye on the radar and popping out. Convection maybe limiting thanks to Jamaica which may be preventing the development of a classic eye but its pretty much an eye.

[Frank2]

It's funny to say that things will work out - would you prefer desparation?

It'll work out - many are praying about this, rest assured, unlike prior to Katrina, when many were unaware or unsure as to the outcome...

The good news also is that the Gulf Coast is much better prepared this time, as opposed to 3 years ago...

[KWT]

Well thats the good thing, Katrina has made everyone aware, I doubt many will stay if given the chance this time round Frank.

[jasons2k]

Here's the link again to the Jamacian Met Service radar:

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

It's out of commission until further notice. They have sent off parts for repairs.

[Air Force Met]

I also wouldn't classify Gustav as a monster. It may be an intense storm...but the system itself will be small. Hanna is also small. If they were both large systems...then there could be some intereaction...but they are not. The ocean is plenty big for the two of them.

To avoid devolving into a "gotcha" contest - my personal feeling is Gus will probably respond to the ripe conditions ahead and make a good run at category 3 - maybe more. It remains to be seen what, if any, affect Hanna has on it.

I think its pretty much a sure thing he will do that. I just would not call it a monster storm. That's not my definition. TS Winds extending out only 140nm to the NE and 100 SW...over water...is a small storm if its a Cat 3 or higher. My definition of a monster is an intense storm that's also large...like Floyd or Wilma...Gilbert....Allen...but that's my definition. To me...monsters are usually big and scary. I think Gustav will remain small to medium.

As far as Hannah impacting Gustav? That's not going to happen. If there is any interaction it would be shear from Gustav onto Hanna...not the other way around. Hanna will not impact Gustav directly in any way...unless it pumps the ridge to its west. Gustav could impact Hannah with some NW shear if it gets under a large anticyclone and builds it. Even that would be indirect because of their distance.

[Javlin]

The 1km visible makes look like he is going to curve just to the N?along the coast.At least it's moving a little and we have some steering currents albiet weak it's something.

Hey AFMet what about the BOC deal does that affect it if it lifts NW,NNW maybe leaving any ridging behind?

[cpdaman]

gustav is about to weaken again, smaller storms don't do as well over jamaica as larger one's, especially if this runs the "spine". i think it will another day of patience lol until this thing emerges west of jamaica friday morning and then and finally will this have a longer period of open water and should rapidly re-strengthen yet again

although i hope it skirts just north of the island for the sanity of the board's sake

[KWT]

Gonna be tough with center over land... I would not expect a hurricane by 4PM, jmo. I also expect a center reform to the north of the islands coast in the next 6-12 hours.

Its tough to say, I doubt the storm gets as ragged as it did over Haiti however, just wont' have the time and there water all around for the infow to draw upon, with Haiti Gustav had a huge mountion range over its inflow which screwed up nicely plus some shear.

I think Gustav is a hurricane right now, I'd guess 80mph given the shallow eye that has emerged recently plus the way the southern eyewall has recently wrapped around.

[Category 5]

It didn't get the whole thing, but it looks like it's wrapping up.

[KWT]

By the way for those who don't think its an eye:



As i said its developing, not quite fully formed yet.

[HURAKAN]

Jamaica's Radar:





Link: http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage1.asp