ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

Again...they are too far apart to directly affect each other.

Perhaps the interaction would be insignificant. I'm not really sure. However, I can't remember any Gulf monsters that had a hurricane so close and heading towards Florida.

If you say they can't help it...sounds like your sure.

Just because there is going to be a significant storm in the Gulf...and another storm headed towards Fl (which at day 5 its almost stalled)...is not evidence to say "they can't help but affect each other." Just because you see something you've never seen...doesn't mean this is the result.

Again...there is another system between the two of them right now (an ULL) and there will be another system (an anticyclone) separating them on day 5.

I also wouldn't classify Gustav as a monster. It may be an intense storm...but the system itself will be small. Hanna is also small. If they were both large systems...then there could be some intereaction...but they are not. The ocean is plenty big for the two of them.

[tolakram]

Zooming in to the map:



and if you zoom in further you can see the elevation contours.

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[Portastorm]

As if we don't have enough unanswered questions, now we have invest 96L in the Bay of Campeche. The pattern is complicated enough. What in the world will this invest do, if anything, to Gustav and his ultimate destination.

[bayoubebe]

[quote="Sabanic

I didn't wanna waste words, so I just shortened prewarning to prewarn. And as for it being the media, I know, but I also remember the NHC calling the mayor? of New Orleans in advance to tell him K was likely to strike there, before it was public knowledge. I think it's entirely possible word's been passed to those in govt. positions. I'm just guessing here. I'm not in LA so I don't know what the media is reporting or not reporting there as regards to movement, and speculated intensity of Gus.[/quote]

Alicia, thanks for posting that information. I, for one, appreciate any information coming out on this storm, esp. being in the NOLA area.
I don't understand the anger of some for posting information directly related to this storm.
NOLA.com is legit site IMO that has passed along important truthful information in the past.
NOthing is set in stone, like the pro mets, and so many keep repeating we have to wait and see.

[duris]

NOLA.com is calling for the possibility of a Cat 3 at Morgan City, LA Tuesday at 2AM. I wonder if that was a prewarn from NHC?

From reading the accompanying blog entry dated as of 7:55 CDT from the T-P's "hurricane expert" (I put in quotes because their claim, and I know nothing about him), it would appear he is simply basing it on the 5 (or 8 if it changed) AM 5-day forecast map: "Thus there's no real change in the National Hurricane Center's prediction of Gustav reaching Category 3 hurricane strength, with top winds of 115 mph, by the time it reaches a point just south of Morgan City at 2 a.m. Tuesday."

[Stormcenter]

Looks like someone is angry he isn't saying Texas so he can tell himself constantly over and over in his head its coming his way.

I will say this thought...if you pick landfall where the general consensus of the models cluster and where the NHC forecast has been pointing for nearly 48 hours...your probably making a good bet on where it'll make landfall...anyone would have to stomach his bile and admit that. IMO

I'm not interested to read your arguement with that user in this topic, when you clearly have been the aggressor.

I never said the models couldn't turn back and nor do i discount the concept. Tight model consensus and a consistent NHC track can change in a heartbeat if the timing is correct. You however, have just came off like an individual that attacks other user's and aggressively forces his opinion. Im trying to read informative posts and don't need to see you quoting other people and bashing them....chill out.


WeatherFreakco- Me and DWG have a personal relationship in a way....we have been here since 2004 and have discussed these issues before through PM's and on other forums.....so your comment was unwarranted. Please PM me if you feel the need to discuss further....


48 hrs ago this was destroying Galveston. what makes you think its not going to shift either way? in the next 5 days? Cone dude look at the cone....not the line.... [/quote][/quote]

It can happen.....just look at the history of that K storm. The track changed several hundred miles less than 3 days out. This is still almost 5 days out!

[Sanibel]

I also wouldn't classify Gustav as a monster. It may be an intense storm...but the system itself will be small. Hanna is also small. If they were both large systems...then there could be some intereaction...but they are not. The ocean is plenty big for the two of them.

To avoid devolving into a "gotcha" contest - my personal feeling is Gus will probably respond to the ripe conditions ahead and make a good run at category 3 - maybe more. It remains to be seen what, if any, affect Hanna has on it.

[93superstorm]

Wow, Just waking up this morning and finding out Gustav is a complete different beast. Notice it has a very well defined inner core too. I agree this does look like a hurricane right now. Looks like 90mph storm with the eye starting to peak through

[Stormcenter]

NOLA.com is calling for the possibility of a Cat 3 at Morgan City, LA Tuesday at 2AM. I wonder if that was a prewarn from NHC?

From reading the accompanying blog entry dated as of 7:55 CDT from the T-P's "hurricane expert" (I put in quotes because their claim, and I know nothing about him), it would appear he is simply basing it on the 5 (or 8 if it changed) AM 5-day forecast map: "Thus there's no real change in the National Hurricane Center's prediction of Gustav reaching Category 3 hurricane strength, with top winds of 115 mph, by the time it reaches a point just south of Morgan City at 2 a.m. Tuesday."

That is their thinking "now" but we all know that can
and more then likely will change before then when you
are talking this far (5 days) out.

[fasterdisaster]

I doubt they'll affect each other, they'll be more than a thousand miles apart.

[Mattie]

I got all my supplies yesterday, including a full tank of gas. If the models trend more West then it may have all been for nothing but you wont hear me complaining. I feel like Baton Rouge has a good chance of getting nasty weather because we are just West of Nola and the models have moved West which doesn't put it as far from us and could even put us on the bad side.

Question for the pros. My boss and I have been arguing about what Baton Rouge can expect. Just for arguments sake, let's say Gustav hits within 65 miles of Baton Rouge with winds of around 110 MPH at landfall. My boss seems to think it will be a breazy day for us just with a lot of rain. I say, depending how close it comes to us, we could easily see gusts over hurricane strength and the sustained winds here should be around 60 or even higher. He laughs at me. Then again, he is from Maine. Will anyone settle this for us?

Baton Rouge could very well get what they got from Andrew in '92. As I recall they got strong gale/ts force winds all day with the highest gusts up to 70mph. I remember hearing the head of the local NWS office say that you can apply a rule of thumb here of halving the winds. In other words what ever the storm hits the coast with, you cut it in half for BR due to the inland situation. Andrew held true to that. He was ast 140 at landfall and brought 70mph winds to BR airport, probably much higher in southern portions of the metro area. Personally, I think that rule is on the conservative side because the storm was quite a bit to your west. Had the center of the storm crossed just over or to the west of the city the winds would have been much higher. I believe that St. Francisville got worse winds due to the center crossing almost directly overhead.

Also that rule would have to be thrown out in the case of Charley here in Orlando in '04. That storm hit the coast at 145mph and had to travel at least 100 miles (BR is about 60 miles inland) before getting here and we saw wind gusts of 105mph. It all depends on the exact track of the storm and how quickly it deteriorates over land. Every storm is different but your boss needs to realize that Baton Rouge is definitely vulnerable to getting very high winds. Also Betsy in '65 hit BR from what could be a very similar track to whats progged for Gustav and gusts were reported in BR of over 100mph. So, rain, definitely, damaging winds, a good possibilty.

So many variables to consider, especially 5 days out, but otown summed it up pretty good. The last time hurricane force winds were recorded in Baton Rouge was in 1965 with Betsy (gusts in the low 90s, I believe). Andrew tracked awful close and produced gusts around 70 mph. Katrina and Rita gave us some sustained winds in the 40s, with gusts of 55-60 mph. In addition to the intensity, the forward motion has a lot to do with inland wind potential. A slow-moving system will have more time to weaken before striking inland locations like Baton Rouge, while a fast-moving hurricane will carry strong winds much farther inland. The classic example of what a fast-moving hurricane can do inland is 1989's Hugo. Bottom line...yes, if a Cat. 2-3 made landfall in Louisiana and passed close enough to Baton Rouge, hurricane-force gusts are possible, but they're pretty rare.

I was in Denham Springs for Betsy - 12 miles east of Baton Rouge - and yep - there was significant damage/power outages, etc. for even several days after. Back then (1965?) the eye came over Baton Rouge/DS and we all went out to see what that was like. But the backside hit and I didn't think we were going to see daylight after that. The possibility is there for sure for damaging winds and LOTS of bad weather.

[fasterdisaster]

Also you guys do realize the only reason they only bring it up to 100 kts is because that's what they always do (I've never seen them forecast Category 4 from a Category 1 or lower).

[jasons2k]

I didn't wanna waste words, so I just shortened prewarning to prewarn. And as for it being the media, I know, but I also remember the NHC calling the mayor? of New Orleans in advance to tell him K was likely to strike there, before it was public knowledge. I think it's entirely possible word's been passed to those in govt. positions. I'm just guessing here. I'm not in LA so I don't know what the media is reporting or not reporting there as regards to movement, and speculated intensity of Gus.

IIRC, that was immediately before the advisory was released and when Katrina was in the GOM just over 72 hours from landfall with very tight model clustering. That's a lot different than a guess 5 days away.

[oyster_reef]

http://markalot.org/gearth

Dude... these are GREAT maps you are putting up for us.
Best out there. Very Much Appreciated.

[KWT]

Sanibel, if there will be any effect it will be the other way round, Gustav effecting Hanna not the other way round.

93superstorm, not going to deny that the eyewall looks nice and strong, the eye is clear and now its getting increasingly obvious on IR and Vis imagery again.

[Air Force Met]

You continue to argue that way...and the Mets continue to shoot it down...

National Hurricane Center:

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV
COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
INTENSITY.

Some people are too quick on the trigger in here with absolutes delivered from assumed board status.

Yes...I saw that...and I don't think it will happen. Hence my statments. Your statement of fact (which is what I was rebuffing: "Can't help but")) is a lot different than "possibly." From last night...the discussion was concentrating on outflow from Hanna impacting Gustav.

As far as status...I only pull a trigger on people making absolute statements of fact that don't merit such. You want an opinion....that's one thing. To come out and say it can't help BUT happen...that's another...and I feel there is enough eveidence to show the chances of that are low. So does the NHC...hence "possibility" and not "probability."

[Buck]

Also you guys do realize the only reason they only bring it up to 100 kts is because that's what they always do (I've never seen them forecast Category 4 from a Category 1 or lower).

Exactly! It seems so many people keep forgetting this. They rarely go past low Cat 3 intensity forcasting past three days because intensity forcasts that far out are just so speculative. People keep saying "115 at landfall" ...not that i'm trying to induce any more fear, but that estimate could end up being tame.

[capepoint]

NOLA.com is calling for the possibility of a Cat 3 at Morgan City, LA Tuesday at 2AM. I wonder if that was a prewarn from NHC?

Prewarn? what is that? there is a possibility within the cone thus the cone.......take the media for what its worth...

True enough about the media, but I just got this email from WWL in New Orleans. Pay attention to the bolded word.

Newsletter

Tracking Map

5 Day

Info: Parish by Parish

Models

Hurricane Central

The National Hurricane Center says Gustav will be a major hurricane making
landfall near the Houma - Thibodaux area Tuesday morning.

"We're going to have to really watch this track right now as it slightly
moving a little farther to the east," says Channel 4 Meteorologist
Jonathan Meyers. He says, though, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

"The cone of error runs all the way from Pensacola to Corpus Chritsi
Texas," Meyers told WWL First News.

The Hurricane Center says Gustav will be a hurricane again as it move past
Jamaica today. The track shows it moving into the Gulf Sunday morning as
a major storm. Landfall is forecast for around 8:00am Tuesday.

This is all subject to change, however as the hurricane center notes
errors can be large in the long-range forecast.

Now did the NHC "say" that, or are they inferring that and putting words in the NHC's mouth?

I don't know if the the same guy or not, but we used to have a Jonathon Meyers at a local week-end met on one of our local stations. If this is the same guy, (skinny, black hair, stupid fake smile) don't listen to anything he has to say. he used to make the wildest forcasts that ran contrary to anything that NWS put out. I guess thats why "he aint here no more".

[ConvergenceZone]

the question is, how much shear from the new invest that's in the gulf will be generated? Hopefully a lot of shear,
but as I mentioned before, I'm done forecasting the demise of a storm

[KWT]

I would think by the way that whilst Jamiaca may induce some weakening it should be no where near as extreme as it was over Haiti and should keep its inner core given its foward speed, then once its clear from there the real explosive strengthening can begin

I thinkthe NHC maybe being a little conservative though at this range out they probably have to be as other factors that can't be well forecasted may come into play.