ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[lbvbl]

It's interesting that the GFS is the only model now turning it NE in time. Maybe other models will follow suit

[Evil Jeremy]

It's interesting that the GFS is the only model now turning it NE in time. Maybe other models will follow suit

I doubt it at this point. The models started off like the GFS is now, but they all turned to the Bahamas. I actually expect the GFS to turn around soon, but the next model run should tell. In fact, the new GFS should be begening in about 10 minutes.

[lbvbl]

It's interesting that the GFS is the only model now turning it NE in time. Maybe other models will follow suit

I doubt it at this point. The models started off like the GFS is now, but they all turned to the Bahamas. I actually expect the GFS to turn around soon, but the next model run should tell. In fact, the new GFS should be begening in about 10 minutes.

Did the previous GFS have that NE turn?

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth

[KWT]

Well the GFS has been switching between the westerly track and the recurve but with such a strong high to the NW the system should track to the west.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Its rollin out

[Category 5]

latest:

Wrong storm lol.

That looks like Hanna to me.

[SouthFLTropics]

It looks to me based on the early loops of this GFS run that it isn't gonna let her get away this time...

SFT

[fasterdisaster]

My baby cousin's name is Hanna so I kinda hope it hits me.

[KWT]

Yep that sure looks like Hanna there on that IR imagery. Doesn't really show the extent of the exposed LLC however.

[gtsmith]

i dont like that GFS run...it has two more storms behind Hanna...and a really strong ridge to the north of them...oy vey...it's very busy for sure

[Bocadude85]

Yea looks like she gets trapped in this run of the GFS

[bob rulz]

Lots of activity.

That would be a great picture if we could actually see it...

Just click the thumbnail and it'll open in a new window where you can see it.

It didn't have the link when he first posted it.

But yeah, great picture. It shows how insane this region is at the moment, and it's only going to get more impressive.

[Tampa DMB Fan]

Living in Florida, I'm going to have to keep a close eye on this one.

[fci]

I caught the end of the tropical update on Weather Channel. Dr Lyons last night said 95L should head up near Bermuda. So I said to myself. There's trouble. Sure enough you wake up in the morning and poof. Depression possibly heading to the east coast. Nothing against Dr. Lyons. But he should be more careful with his wording. Until he knows all the facts. Which none of us do.

Dr. Lyons also told us that Jeanne would head to Bermuda. And we know what actually happened....

Predicting Bermuda for storms in Hanna's vicinity is the safest forecast you can make especially if you are not looking at models and are using climatology.

Not real wise to do all the time.

[BigA]

Is there any idea when(if) the shear will let up over Hanna? The NHC seems to predict that the ULL will move southwestward, but any estimations on the time frame?

[divanicki75]

Looking at map in the header of this forum, it looks like the Carolinas could be in for what New Orleans is in for with Gustav. Hanna is already a Cat 1 and look at all that ocean between her & the coast. <--- closest I could find to worried.

[storms in NC]

Hum seem I told everyone the onther day that from Ga up would be safe. And I don't see it going to change any time soon. Only way TS Hanna could come up this way is the she got the timing down right as for when the ridge will be weak and that is the only way. And the ridge will be weak then it builds back in.So it is all going to come down to timing of her track.JIMO

Would be nice for her to go out to sea. Fl don't need any more rain.

Now May I ask how many stormes have come where she is at?

[HurricaneBelle]

Dr. Lyons also told us that Jeanne would head to Bermuda. And what know what actually happened....

Predicting Bermuda for storms in Hanna's vicinity is the safest forecast you can make especially if you are not looking at models and are using climatology.

Not real wise to do all the time.

In fairness to Lyons, many of the global models at the time were also calling for Jeanne to scoot off to the NE, especially the GFS.

Of course Jeanne was the first thing I thought about when I saw the NHC discussion mention the GFS thinking Hanna would do likewise.

[divanicki75]

Looking at map in the header of this forum, it looks like the Carolinas could be in for what New Orleans is in for with Gustav. Hanna is already a Cat 1 and look at all that ocean between her & the coast. <--- closest I could find to worried.

OOPS- I was having a blonde moment. She's already tracking as BECOMING a Cat 1 with all that ocean... Sorry