H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 221129
NOAA2 1504A DOLLY HDOB 16 20080722
112000 2414N 09345W 6960 03105 9950 +118 +093 118053 053 053 000 00
112030 2412N 09346W 6958 03103 9949 +116 +089 119052 052 054 001 00
112100 2410N 09347W 6959 03097 9940 +119 +091 117055 057 055 004 00
112130 2408N 09348W 6962 03089 9931 +123 +091 113057 058 050 004 00
112200 2406N 09349W 6962 03084 9926 +123 +080 110056 058 049 002 03
112230 2405N 09350W 6961 03080 9920 +125 +081 105051 057 043 001 03
112300 2403N 09351W 6960 03080 9920 +120 +086 112035 038 040 001 03
112330 2401N 09352W 6960 03077 9914 +124 +089 109033 034 038 000 03
112400 2359N 09353W 6959 03076 9913 +124 +072 107034 034 033 000 03
112430 2357N 09354W 6957 03076 9913 +117 +103 111033 035 034 001 00
112500 2355N 09354W 6959 03071 9908 +120 +095 107029 030 035 000 00
112530 2353N 09355W 6959 03069 9904 +123 +085 104024 026 035 000 00
112600 2351N 09356W 6960 03065 9903 +123 +082 107021 022 033 000 03
112630 2349N 09356W 6958 03065 9900 +122 +086 124019 020 029 000 03
112700 2347N 09358W 6962 03060 9902 +120 +082 131017 018 021 001 03
112730 2345N 09359W 6962 03059 9904 +117 +079 133011 012 016 001 03
112800 2344N 09401W 6961 03058 9901 +118 +086 114004 006 016 000 03
112830 2342N 09402W 6959 03061 9904 +116 +087 085004 006 015 000 00
112900 2341N 09403W 6961 03060 9905 +117 +080 009005 006 016 000 00
112930 2339N 09405W 6958 03066 9904 +118 +094 353005 006 021 000 00

The missing ob. 990 mb / 55 knots SFMR.

[KWT]

Well we can see why the NHC has upped the winds to 55kts given we have a SFMR report of 55kts.

[wxman57]

I don't see the vortex message posted at S2K, but the plane reported 993mb.

[HURAKAN]

Coming back for a 2nd look!

[Thunder44]

I don't see the vortex message posted at S2K, but the plane reported 993mb.

I just posted the VDM. They also reported back a very ragged eye.

[KWT]

Looks like they are about to take a pass from the Se quadrant through tothe NW, will be interesting what this one shows.

[HURAKAN]

123800 2315N 09336W 6960 03128 0000 +096 +096 210048 054 052 015 00
123830 2316N 09338W 6963 03117 9987 +100 +100 214046 050 063 033 03
123900 2317N 09340W 6963 03111 9984 +098 +098 222041 044 065 020 03
123930 2318N 09342W 6962 03113 9983 +099 +099 225034 036 052 014 00

SFMR: 65 knots

[KWT]

Wow SFMR shows 65kts, surely thats not correct however, the other estimates of 52kts seems about right.

[americanrebel]

65 Kts is equal to what in MPH 73-80?

[hurricanefloyd5]

65 Kts is equal to what in MPH 73-80?

the 65kts is 75mph!!!!

[poof121]

123800 2315N 09336W 6960 03128 0000 +096 +096 210048 054 052 015 00
123830 2316N 09338W 6963 03117 9987 +100 +100 214046 050 063 033 03
123900 2317N 09340W 6963 03111 9984 +098 +098 222041 044 065 020 03
123930 2318N 09342W 6962 03113 9983 +099 +099 225034 036 052 014 00

SFMR: 65 knots

The 03 at the end means it's suspect doesn't it?

[Thunder44]

123800 2315N 09336W 6960 03128 0000 +096 +096 210048 054 052 015 00
123830 2316N 09338W 6963 03117 9987 +100 +100 214046 050 063 033 03
123900 2317N 09340W 6963 03111 9984 +098 +098 222041 044 065 020 03
123930 2318N 09342W 6962 03113 9983 +099 +099 225034 036 052 014 00

SFMR: 65 knots

The 03 at the end means it's suspect doesn't it?

It should be suspect, just considering that they found much lower flight level winds at the same time.

[HURAKAN]

First pass: 990.0 mb
Second pass: 988.8 mb

1.2 mb in about an hour or so.

[Thunder44]

First pass: 990.0 mb
Second pass: 988.8 mb

1.2 mb in about an hour or so.

They added 3 mbs last time, so add another 3 mbs this time. The pressure in the next VDM will probably be around 992mb.

Actually looking that winds reported from the ob that reported back the extrap pressure. They are very high to be in the eye. So they may have to extrapolate it lower than that.

125300 2356N 09426W 6958 03064 9888 +131 +091 030021 026 033 002 00

[KWT]

Found flight level winds of 61kts in the NW quadrant, I suspect the winds are now starting to catch up wuith that quick depening we saw earlier this morning, looks like its still deepening at a pretty rapid rate.

[Thunder44]

Found flight level winds of 61kts in the NW quadrant, I suspect the winds are now starting to catch up wuith that quick depening we saw earlier this morning, looks like its still deepening at a pretty rapid rate.

61kts in standard reduction to the surface would be about 55kts. However the SFMR reports suggest surface winds as high as 65kts. So a good compromise now would be 60kts at the surface.

[KWT]

Possibly Thunder but that was flagged as suspect I believe Thunder and the next highest woud support 55kts still.

[littlevince]

The last dropsond has 993mb too.

[Thunder44]

Highest flight level winds were actually 62kts, in 10 sec gust. Still would support only about 55kts at the surface.

125630 2406N 09438W 6959 03088 9938 +115 +076 054061 062 037 003 00

[dixiebreeze]

22/1145 UTC 23.6N 93.8W T3.5/3.5 DOLLY