ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

Well the center reformed last night apparently under the deeper convection. If you think back, Katrina was forecast to skirt the west coast of Florida. Then it started diving southwest. And it did so for longer than forecast. The longer this thing continues to moves west-southwest, the further west you are likely to see the track shift. I think if the gfdl swings west today with the others, look for a big track shift to the west. I think the media is putting WAY TO MUCH emphasis on N.O...giving a false sense of security to those along the Texas and Bama, and Florida coasts.

The track already shifted W with the previous package....

NHC did shift west some.....06Z are just now coming in. I would not rule out more westward packages through out the day......Ultra conservative Scott.....

[ROCK]

Rock, where did you see west shift of HWRF, if anything it moved slightly east.

06z run....go check it out...

[weatherguru18]

Well the center reformed last night apparently under the deeper convection. If you think back, Katrina was forecast to skirt the west coast of Florida. Then it started diving southwest. And it did so for longer than forecast. The longer this thing continues to moves west-southwest, the further west you are likely to see the track shift. I think if the gfdl swings west today with the others, look for a big track shift to the west. I think the media is putting WAY TO MUCH emphasis on N.O...giving a false sense of security to those along the Texas and Bama, and Florida coasts.

the movement wsw has stopped, Derek said its north of Jamaica. Look for models to continue to focus on Central to Eastern LA.

Yes, but according to the hurricane center, the motion to the west-southwest is expected to resume.

[Aric Dunn]

Well the center reformed last night apparently under the deeper convection. If you think back, Katrina was forecast to skirt the west coast of Florida. Then it started diving southwest. And it did so for longer than forecast. The longer this thing continues to moves west-southwest, the further west you are likely to see the track shift. I think if the gfdl swings west today with the others, look for a big track shift to the west. I think the media is putting WAY TO MUCH emphasis on N.O...giving a false sense of security to those along the Texas and Bama, and Florida coasts.

agreed...its all about timing....the HWRF 06Z is already shifted west ..... misses the trof and runs back into a building high...WXMN57's prophecy of a STX / MX hit might not be that far off.......

you all are forgetting down stream a little there is another trough and if the steering currents weaken as forecast when it reaches the gulf then it will have more time to eventually curve back to the north .. meaning the more southerly the track the longer time it has before the next trough come into play. we are already quite a bit past the original forecast thinking, the weakens in the ridge is still there over the central and eastern gulf but our system is farther south and not be in the gulf when it was forecast before. So a more northerly track may still unfold the longer it takes to get into the gulf

[Frank2]

It's a fluid situation, for sure...

By the way, someone here yesterday mentioned that Jim Cantore had already arrived at Biloxi, MS - not true, since he was on TWC last evening (unless he has a double - one is enough)...

LOL

P.S. Just kidding, Jim...

[carversteve]

Ok..does it seem Gus is moving wnw on last visible image?? I am untrained and very unofficial!!

[Stratosphere747]

Rock, where did you see west shift of HWRF, if anything it moved slightly east.

06z run....go check it out...

0z and 06z are essentially the same.

[mutley]

Rock, where did you see west shift of HWRF, if anything it moved slightly east.

06z run....go check it out...

The 06z HWRF shows central LA landfall. Is that what everyone else sees?

[ROCK]

Rock, where did you see west shift of HWRF, if anything it moved slightly east.

06z run....go check it out...

0z and 06z are essentially the same.

You said essentially..... so they are different....

[dwg71]

definately lost its south component. I see just north of due west.

[dwg71]

Rock it moved about 10 miles east at end game.

[ROCK]

definately lost its south component. I see just north of due west.

how do you see through a CDO? just curious....b/c all I see is a expanding CDO.....

[weatherguru18]

definately lost its south component. I see just north of due west.

I believe it to be just a better defined outflow in the NW Quad.

[ROCK]

Rock it moved about 10 miles east at end game.

Not going to argue with you b/c we know your rep...

[carversteve]

We all should quit the arguing!! Now back to Gus!

[Stratosphere747]

Rock it moved about 10 miles east at end game.

Not going to argue with you b/c we know your rep...

If you want to get that technical he is actually correct. I've been plotting the difference in my other chase thread. Mute point to be honest and I keep forgetting this isn't the model threat.

[bayoubebe]

OH OHH... If that BOC storm develops what are the implications for Gustav?

Can anyone (Pro Mets,etc.?) answer this?

There is a questions and pro met analysis thread on Gustav in the Tropical Analysis section you may want to check out.
I find it very useful.

[Agua]

I don't see how anyone can discern where the center is to make a pronoucement as to movement.

[Just Joshing You]

I just woke up and realized I was 5KT off. I predicted 55 KT and Hurricane by tonight. Oh well

[Derek Ortt]

1km visible shows it maybe just north of Jamaica

Here's an 11 hour time lapse of the Gran Piedra radar...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/272145_280845.gif

looks at about 18N, where I am seeing it on sat

looks like it is going to graze the northern coast