ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Rocketman]

I was listening to WWL (780 AM New Orleans) in the car on the way to breakfast and they were commenting that the data going into the models prior to yesterday seemed to be wrong since it did not account for the unusual motion of the storm so far

Frank

I heard some of that too. "junk in, junk out"

[Frank2]

Here's a link to the Jamacian Met Service weather radar:

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

[carversteve]

Is Gus going to run the length of Jamaica?? And once again wont this cause weakness?

[southmdwatcher]

What is that boiling down in the bay of Campeche? Someone please tell me it is merely thunderstorms.

I was thinking the same thing.

[Sanibel]

Is Gus going to run the length of Jamaica??

Looks like it from visible satellite loops.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is Gus going to run the length of Jamaica?? And once again wont this cause weakness?

No its already just south of jamaica.

[Frank2]

If it did travel the length of the island (not good for Jamacia), considering the very small core circulation, the weakening might cause it to continue more westward, considering the strong NE fetch west of Jamacia at this time - we'll see what happens...

[Derek Ortt]

1km visible shows it maybe just north of Jamaica

[HouTXmetro]

OH OHH... If that BOC storm develops what are the implications for Gustav?

[weatherguru18]

Well the center reformed last night apparently under the deeper convection. If you think back, Katrina was forecast to skirt the west coast of Florida. Then it started diving southwest. And it did so for longer than forecast. The longer this thing continues to moves west-southwest, the further west you are likely to see the track shift. I think if the gfdl swings west today with the others, look for a big track shift to the west. I think the media is putting WAY TO MUCH emphasis on N.O...giving a false sense of security to those along the Texas and Bama, and Florida coasts.

[Frank2]

There is nothing in the BOC at this time (other than a flare-up of convection due to a tropical wave, per the NHC)...

[carversteve]

1km visible shows it maybe just north of Jamaica

I heard it's south and now north..do they really have a fix on the center? After the time it spent on haiti,whats little ole jamacia going to do?..lol

[Stratosphere747]

Well the center reformed last night apparently under the deeper convection. If you think back, Katrina was forecast to skirt the west coast of Florida. Then it started diving southwest. And it did so for longer than forecast. The longer this thing continues to moves west-southwest, the further west you are likely to see the track shift. I think if the gfdl swings west today with the others, look for a big track shift to the west. I think the media is putting WAY TO MUCH emphasis on N.O...giving a false sense of security to those along the Texas and Bama, and Florida coasts.

The track already shifted W with the previous package....

[Stormcenter]

OH OHH... If that BOC storm develops what are the implications for Gustav?

Can anyone (Pro Mets,etc.?) answer this?

[ROCK]

Well the center reformed last night apparently under the deeper convection. If you think back, Katrina was forecast to skirt the west coast of Florida. Then it started diving southwest. And it did so for longer than forecast. The longer this thing continues to moves west-southwest, the further west you are likely to see the track shift. I think if the gfdl swings west today with the others, look for a big track shift to the west. I think the media is putting WAY TO MUCH emphasis on N.O...giving a false sense of security to those along the Texas and Bama, and Florida coasts.

agreed...its all about timing....the HWRF 06Z is already shifted west ..... misses the trof and runs back into a building high...WXMN57's prophecy of a STX / MX hit might not be that far off.......

[dwg71]

Well the center reformed last night apparently under the deeper convection. If you think back, Katrina was forecast to skirt the west coast of Florida. Then it started diving southwest. And it did so for longer than forecast. The longer this thing continues to moves west-southwest, the further west you are likely to see the track shift. I think if the gfdl swings west today with the others, look for a big track shift to the west. I think the media is putting WAY TO MUCH emphasis on N.O...giving a false sense of security to those along the Texas and Bama, and Florida coasts.

the movement wsw has stopped, Derek said its north of Jamaica. Look for models to continue to focus on Central to Eastern LA.

[AJC3]

Here's a link to the Jamacian Met Service weather radar:

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

The image on that web site is from Feb 8, 2007.

This link...

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage1.asp

has a single image from yesterday at 1610 (EDT? UTC?)...and it was supposed to update at 8 AM today. They must be rationing radar imagery or something.

[dwg71]

Rock, where did you see west shift of HWRF, if anything it moved slightly east.

[AJC3]

1km visible shows it maybe just north of Jamaica

Here's an 11 hour time lapse of the Gran Piedra radar...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/272145_280845.gif

[weatherguru18]

Well the center reformed last night apparently under the deeper convection. If you think back, Katrina was forecast to skirt the west coast of Florida. Then it started diving southwest. And it did so for longer than forecast. The longer this thing continues to moves west-southwest, the further west you are likely to see the track shift. I think if the gfdl swings west today with the others, look for a big track shift to the west. I think the media is putting WAY TO MUCH emphasis on N.O...giving a false sense of security to those along the Texas and Bama, and Florida coasts.

agreed...its all about timing....the HWRF 06Z is already shifted west ..... misses the trof and runs back into a building high...WXMN57's prophecy of a STX / MX hit might not be that far off.......

If you consider 300 miles not that far off. lol...just messin'. But the approaching trough is awefully deep. The last run I saw yesterday before I skirted off to class didn't show nearly as deep a trough. And looking at the heights, they aren't all that high over Florida until after landfall per the gfs. We're only talking 585 to 588. Those bump to 591 on Tuesday after landfall. I guess that would indicate a building ridge. If that's the case, a landfall in N.O. or points east seems unlikely in my opinion.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html