ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[expat2carib]

Lots of activity.

[bob rulz]

Lots of activity.

That would be a great picture if we could actually see it...

[HURAKAN]

Partially exposed but looking good.

[expat2carib]

Lots of activity.

That would be a great picture if we could actually see it...

Click on it. I just edited it to be a link as well

[cpdaman]

all system are unique

the biggest thing with this system in the next several days "per the nhc" is it's uncertain interaction with the ull, they are saying condition's SHOULD be favorable but that depends on the models accurate forecasting off the big ULL moving WSW, and models don't handle these features well. This is a potentially huge threat to the east coast IMO, but the ULL movement is the key to this one IMO

and yes i know the nhc forecasts strengthening but that is dependant on the models accurate handling of the ULL, which i have little faith in

with that said anyone have a link to a model graphic that shows the current forecast movement of the ULL, would be very greatly appreciated

[KG4HPN]

Lots of activity.

That would be a great picture if we could actually see it...

Just click the thumbnail and it'll open in a new window where you can see it.

[gatorcane]

all system are unique

the biggest thing with this system in the next several days "per the nhc" is it's uncertain interaction with the ull, they are saying condition's SHOULD be favorable but that depends on the models accurate forecasting off the big ULL moving WSW, and models don't handle these features well. This is a potentially huge threat to the east coast IMO, but the ULL movement is the key to this one IMO

and yes i know the nhc forecasts strengthening but that is dependant on the models accurate handling of the ULL, which i have little faith in

with that said anyone have a link to a model graphic that shows the current forecast movement of the ULL, would be very greatly appreciated

The two bits of good news from this latest NHC discussion are

HOWEVER...THE
TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

and

BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV
COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
INTENSITY.

[Bocadude85]

all system are unique

the biggest thing with this system in the next several days "per the nhc" is it's uncertain interaction with the ull, they are saying condition's SHOULD be favorable but that depends on the models accurate forecasting off the big ULL moving WSW, and models don't handle these features well. This is a potentially huge threat to the east coast IMO, but the ULL movement is the key to this one IMO

and yes i know the nhc forecasts strengthening but that is dependant on the models accurate handling of the ULL, which i have little faith in

with that said anyone have a link to a model graphic that shows the current forecast movement of the ULL, would be very greatly appreciated

The two bits of good news from this latest NHC discussion are

HOWEVER...THE
TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

and

BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV
COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
INTENSITY.[/

Lets hope so.. though I do not see that trough picking Hanna up if it will not affect Gustav

[Fego]

Hanna has all the makings of becoming a strong cyclone in 3-5 days. Currently, the LLC is somewhat exposed but over the next day or so the westerly shear will relax and Hanna is poised to become a hurricane. My concern is when she reaches 24-26N and around 70W ridging to the north will build in and she will turn w or even wsw. At that point she will have very favorable upper-air conditions to continue to strengthen..

Some models agree with the wsw turn near Bahamas. After that, bets will be open.

[cpdaman]

well the nhc discussion says the ULL is forecast to move WSW right now it's moving SE causing increasing shear over hanna and probably making her more exposed as the day unfolds

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks like the whole storm is about to get sheared away and it looks as if the ULL and Hanna will collide.

[Sanibel]

ULL shear displacement. Expect Hanna to be the runt of the two.

[Weatherboy1]

yes, the ULL is doing a number on Hanna right now and could just give he a big buzzcut if it doesn't get moving out of the way. Should Hanna survive, several of the global models overnight were showing some kind of turn to the west or even WSW. The euro in particular was scary for those of us who live in South Florida (major cane plowing into us in 9 days). But that's so far out, anything can happen. We have plenty of time to watch and then re-assess any possible threat on Labor Day.

[alienstorm]

LLC is now totally exposed, ULL is really increasing shear and Hanna may actually weaken. Also, as far as track given it is a more shallow system then look for a more westerly direction, this may have implication in the future as it pertains to the bahamas.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hanna has all she needs to survive...

[cpdaman]

i mean is it REALLY that tough to forecast ULL's, perhaps some more $ or focus could be injected into studying these things, since they play huge roles.

[gatorcane]

South FL media already on it, in this case the Palm Beach Post located in Palm Beach FL (just north of Ft. Lauderdale)

And the National Hurricane Center's five-day forecast shows it making a disturbing turn due west early Monday and aiming at the east coast of Florida, courtesy of a large ridge forecast to move into that part of the Atlantic later this week


http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... storm.html

[gatorcane]

latest:

[KWT]

Well yep Hanna is getting exposed right now, it does look sheared but thats to be expected given the location of the ULL to this system and so any devlopment should be slow.

[Evil Jeremy]

latest:

Wrong storm lol.