ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Ed Mahmoud]

doesn't matter if it is a short flight

no need to waste flight hours on a system that we can determine is not developing based upon obs

Just my amateur opinion, mind you, but based on satellite, a circulation may (or may not) have worked its way to the surface by early afternoon when recon would be out there.

[lrak]

doesn't matter if it is a short flight

no need to waste flight hours on a system that we can determine is not developing based upon obs

Just my amateur opinion, mind you, but based on satellite, a circulation may (or may not) have worked its way to the surface by early afternoon when recon would be out there.

I'm a 25 year amateur and the visible loops shows a circulation. Low level, mid level or surface level.

[xironman]

at about 28.7n 87W the visible satellite loop gives the illusion of a spin for sure.

Sure looks that way to me as well http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28.5&lon=-87&zoom=1&info=vis&type=Animation&numframes=8&quality=90 maybe it will work its way down to the surface. The shear looks to be less as time goes on as well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WxMan57 - I never worked in the North Sea, but I have seen TV footage of conditions that were probably close to Cat 1 hurricane wind and waves.


Of course, we all know the story of the Ocean Ranger offshore Canada. But at least all Diamond Offshore rigs have survival suits. In the winter months, one can get hypothermia in the Gulf. In August, take a long time to freeze to death in 30º C water. Drowning and marine predators, I'd guess, would be more pressing concerns.

[KatDaddy]

Gale Warnings also hoisted offshore of SE LA

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
435 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

PASCAGOULA TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60 NM

GMZ575-040030-
/O.NEW.KLIX.GL.W.0005.080804T0000Z-080804T1200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
435 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET BUILDING TO
7 TO 10 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS.
SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS
EASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

[lrak]

I like the reality Crab Flick.

[mpic]

I can understand not wanting to "waste" a recon flight, but when you live in a mobile home only 20 miles inland from the Gulf, you want as much info as possible.

I heard something about the possibility of using subs to go under storms to determine what's going on at some future date...not this one. Is there anything to that? A different way to predict storms more accurately?

[wxman57]

My eye is drawn toward 28N/87.5W on the satellite loops. But surface obs indicate nothing there yet. The rotation is aloft.

[wxman57]

I can understand not wanting to "waste" a recon flight, but when you live in a mobile home only 20 miles inland from the Gulf, you want as much info as possible.

I heard something about the possibility of using subs to go under storms to determine what's going on at some future date...not this one. Is there anything to that? A different way to predict storms more accurately?

That's an interesting idea. A recon sub. It could stay in the center of a storm for weeks, if necessary, probing surface pressure or maybe move to the eyewall to measure surface winds with a tethered anemometer while remaining submerged. Unfortunately, there's barely money to fly a recon plane out there. So the sub idea will have to wait.

[NDG]

Surface obs surely does not matches yet what I see on Vis sat loop

[MGC]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like there is a circulation at 28N 87W. The northern part is exposed with the convection limited to the southern semicircle. Once a few more satellite frames are in to confirm the circulation, the NHC will decide to send recon. Chances are recon will find a weak depression. Given the proxcimity to land it should be upgraded provided the convection remains. I don't expect any rapid intensification due to dry air, only slow intensification. It will have a good shot at getting named as it approaches the western GOM......MGC

[xironman]

42040 back east again http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040, lets see if it holds.

[lrak]

this looks like that little Dolly spin we all watched form up

[njweather]

For what it's worth (a little over an hour old):

[cycloneye]

In the next hour we will know if the plane departs or not to investigate 91L.

[KWT]

Yeah 87-87.5W is looking very interesting have to admit you can see the clouds streaming in from the south but not sure if its at the surface, it does look very interesting...why some people think recon shouldn't go in is beyond me given that feature!

[HURAKAN]

[njweather]

Latest quickscat (6 minutes old):

[Chacor]

The pass is from 1150z. It's not six minutes old. The two quickscat passes you posted are the same, only with a different buffer time.

[vbhoutex]

A check of all of the reporting bouys within the area around the possible circulation does indeed indicate by wind direction that there is a surface circulation at least attempting to develop. However the pressures are steady at most of the stations but may be lower than normal(I'm not sure of this-they seem lower than normal to me)and we will have to see pressure falls begin and continue relatively soon if this is going to try and develop today.

The sat loops, at initial viewing, definitely indicate a mid level circulation, but with my still not completely open eyes, I did not see a definitel LLC in the lower clouds. Again, I think we are stil looking at stacking issues here, even without a lot of shear impacting the system.

Definitely going to be monitoring this one all day long.