ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sean in New Orleans]

LSU2001, I did stay to help stuck tourists in the city. But, I don't regret it. I did a good thing and I was never in harms way. I have lifelong friends in Scotland due to Katrina and last year I went to Scotland and stayed ten days in their home and attended a family Scottish wedding. They took me and a couple of friends on a tour of all of Scotland and the castles, etc. for 10 days and cooked me meals in their home. They were in the hotel I went to for Katrina. I received a blessing. I earned new life-long friends from that experience.

[gatorcane]

I think its actually starting to show signs of reorganization as we speak. New convective bursts close to the center, and convection on the southwest side is streaming rapidly towards the center. This will likely maintain at 35-45 mph over night tonight and then begin to restrengthen tomorrow, though I dont expect a hurricane until Friday.

I just noticed that. Still very unimpressive but it is a sign of life. D-Max is coming up overnight too, so let's see what it looks like in the morning.

Gustav is very close to his final deathblow.....

He definitely needs to do something soon --- shear, dry air, and the mountainous terrain may prove just too much for him.

I expect an interesting NHC discussion at 11pm EST

It may have been unwise to not follow the GFS forecast of a remnant low or tropical wave moving WSW towards the Yucatan....or just north of it.

[cheezyWXguy]

makes sense tolakram, now check out jamaica's geography

and i love jim stevens and his cat show LMAO that is life on planet earth

Center is not diving south with convection. It is near the northern burst of convection that just formed. Jamaica will likely not kill off the storm and will not affect it at all.

cheezywxguy i was basing this on the observation of a wsw movement lately , never thought it was diving south and it will likely effect the Southern inflow of the storm (should he pass just north of the island)

It may slightly hinder inflow, but it is a small island. A strong circulation, which it may have in a few days will likely not be affected much by the island, as storms usually feed off of several inflow channels.

[Annie Oakley]

Media, it's all about ratings....They will say what they need to, to keep you hooked to that channel and not turn to another newscast.

Do you really think you will hear: "Gustav, models are all over the place, who knows what will go on, plus will flushing your toilet more than once after a sitting cause migraines?..that and Jim Stevens is live from the cat show, tonight at 10"....

[lamsalfl]

The ONLY drawback to Gustav's "fizzing out"..the news media and the inevitable next time..
How many people will listen next time??..Chicken little comes to mind..

Well, we'll have to see, but, if the mountains of Haiti have killed this system, we need to seriously analyze what these things do to the general public. People need to understand what this is doing to New Orleanians. I have a friend who manages a hotel who had employees in his office today crying. I work at a bank. I had lines of people in my branch today cashing checks for $10,000.00 to be prepared because they didn't get cash "for Katrina." We barely had enough money before we closed. The residents of New Orleans have been in panic mode today over a storm in Haiti. Not saying this is bad and we still don't know the future, but, this serves as a lesson in what we are doing to the general public. The governor of the State of Louisiana declared an official State of Emergency in Louisiana today at 5:00PM. Now, if this system comes back and plows towards Louisiana we know that this is a good thing, but, if it doesn't then we need to seriously analyze how we handle these systems in the future with the general public. I have another friend in New Orleans who called their physician to get a prescription of Ativan sent to the neighborhood Rite Aid. We have to be cautious with the public. I posted an entire thread on this board on another forum about how New Orleans is not ready for a hurricane and is truly VERY scared of these systems.

Do you have to pound "New Orleans" into everyone's head in every single post in every single forum --weather, SSC, saints, hornets-- ?!?! Yes, I am from NO, and this "woe is us... poor us" attitude is embarrassing. Everyone is aware of Katrina fatigue, and knows New Orleans is recovering.

As for the storm, I think the fact that the storm is weakening so much, even if just temporary, means the NHC will back off the intensity forecast tonight or tomorrow. I think we'll see those Cat 3's in the Gulf replaced with Cat 1's. That said, I'm still preparing for a Cat 3 just to be safe.

[tolakram]

Gustav is very close to his final deathblow.....

He definitely needs to do something soon --- shear, dry air, and the mountainous terrain may prove just too much for him.

I expect an interesting NHC discussion at 11pm EST

Let's pretend this was never a hurricane but a surface low with convection firing near the center and red circle on the tropical outlook page. With environmental conditions expected to improve we would be talking about a likely TD by tomorrow.

We shouldn't focus on what Gustav was, it's not really pertinent to the danger this system might pose in the future.

edit:

I don't want to talk about New Orleans in every thread, enough please!

[njweather]

How would delayed intensification affect Gustav's track?

If it does fall back to a depression, or even an open wave, will it head more north or south?

This thing may be struggling right now, but it certainly seems it will re-develop...

[Sean in New Orleans]

The ONLY drawback to Gustav's "fizzing out"..the news media and the inevitable next time..
How many people will listen next time??..Chicken little comes to mind..

Well, we'll have to see, but, if the mountains of Haiti have killed this system, we need to seriously analyze what these things do to the general public. People need to understand what this is doing to New Orleanians. I have a friend who manages a hotel who had employees in his office today crying. I work at a bank. I had lines of people in my branch today cashing checks for $10,000.00 to be prepared because they didn't get cash "for Katrina." We barely had enough money before we closed. The residents of New Orleans have been in panic mode today over a storm in Haiti. Not saying this is bad and we still don't know the future, but, this serves as a lesson in what we are doing to the general public. The governor of the State of Louisiana declared an official State of Emergency in Louisiana today at 5:00PM. Now, if this system comes back and plows towards Louisiana we know that this is a good thing, but, if it doesn't then we need to seriously analyze how we handle these systems in the future with the general public. I have another friend in New Orleans who called their physician to get a prescription of Ativan sent to the neighborhood Rite Aid. We have to be cautious with the public. I posted an entire thread on this board on another forum about how New Orleans is not ready for a hurricane and is truly VERY scared of these systems.

Do you have to pound "New Orleans" into everyone's head in every single post in every single forum --weather, SSC, saints, hornets-- ?!?! Yes, I am from NO, and this "woe is us... poor us" attitude is embarrassing. Everyone is aware of Katrina fatigue, and knows New Orleans is recovering.

As for the storm, I think the fact that the storm is weakening so much, even if just temporary, means the NHC will back off the intensity forecast tonight or tomorrow. I think we'll see those Cat 3's in the Gulf replaced with Cat 1's. That said, I'm still preparing for a Cat 3 just to be safe.

??? Put me on your ignore list.

[Ivanhater]

Gustav is very close to his final deathblow.....

He definitely needs to do something soon --- shear, dry air, and the mountainous terrain may prove just too much for him.

I expect an interesting NHC discussion at 11pm EST

Let's pretend this was never a hurricane but a surface low with convection firing near the center and red circle on the tropical outlook page. With environmental conditions expected to improve we would be talking about a likely TD by tomorrow.

We shouldn't focus on what Gustav was, it's not really pertinent to the danger this system might pose in the future.

edit:

Great point..with a 999mb low in this area of hot waters and shear forecast to be low..let's see what happens overnight
I don't want to talk about New Orleans in very thread, enough please!

[gatorcane]

How would delayed intensification affect Gustav's track?

If it does fall back to a depression, or even an open wave, will it head more north or south?

This thing may be struggling right now, but it certainly seems it will re-develop...

Oh there is no doubt Gustav can redevelop but its going to be a longer process than many had envisioned and since conditions are going to improve for Gustav, certainly it bears watching.

[CrazyC83]

Gustav is very close to his final deathblow.....

He definitely needs to do something soon --- shear, dry air, and the mountainous terrain may prove just too much for him.

I expect an interesting NHC discussion at 11pm EST

Let's pretend this was never a hurricane but a surface low with convection firing near the center and red circle on the tropical outlook page. With environmental conditions expected to improve we would be talking about a likely TD by tomorrow.

We shouldn't focus on what Gustav was, it's not really pertinent to the danger this system might pose in the future.

edit:

I don't want to talk about New Orleans in every thread, enough please!

Good idea. Pretend this is Invest 96L, not Gustav right now.

[LSU2001]

latemodel25, I'll make it blunt and clean. Before you post on a public forum, you need to be sure and have your facts straight. I'm really politely telling you to not embarrass yourself. You posted a non-truth on this forum.

Honest question here Sean not an attempt to start a flame war. But what exactly is the untruth here??
The levees are in pretty bad shape, Just a couple of months ago there was a lot of talk about 1800 feet of ,I believe, the London ave canal levee that is in bad shape even though the patch seems to be well done.

Much of NOLA and south La. in general is below sea level, heck I am 30 miles inland and at an elevation of 2.5 ft.
We should be afraid, I saw what Katrina and Rita did to South La. and I can tell you proudly I am afraid of this storm and am making preps accordingly.
Tim

[latemodel25]

so is this a false and untrue article? http://www.weathernet5.com/weather/17275838/detail.html wow! dont worry im not embarrased in the least. ya know you can get info after info regarding this matter but the simple fact is that i truly believe always better safe than sorry.

[Mattie]

It would be very irresponsible for anyone to mention the possibility of it dissipating or not being anything but a catastrophic storm in the Gulf. Until the NHC says otherwise, you should prepare for what they are forecasting.

i understand you are concerned, but please don't tell me what i can and can't post about

posts like this (may have good intentions) but limit discussion of possibilities and do nothing but except add furthe alarm (though not your intention)

I second that cpdaman - I don't think discussions are limiting, but more so allows people to take their guard down - which serves the community in absolutely no way. I think the best way to describe this is "as of this minute" and not a "forever" scenario. Most of us have been around this board for a while and we all know - regardless of discussion - that it "ain't over" til the NHC says it is. Already people are relaxing a little. This is not due to the board discussion totally, but also to what media is saying. I just think that is so dangerous JUST IN CASE people need to make plans. My parents are a prime example - 90 and 91 year olds who would "go" but when they hear media hype "not likely or it's not going to be able to make it to a category 4-5, etc., they get complacent. It takes a lot to get these people to "plan" and I'm struggling with trying to make them keep their eyes open to the situation. If it becomes Friday and they finally decide that it's a danger to their area, they will say "oh, we can't move now - it takes us time to prepare and we aren't ready to jump in the car and drive." Surely others have similar circumstances . . . . I just think we ought to be careful with the doomsday scenarios so people stay on high alert until the all clear is sounded by the NHC. Just my two cents . . . Thanks for the vent space.

[Sean in New Orleans]

How would delayed intensification affect Gustav's track?

If it does fall back to a depression, or even an open wave, will it head more north or south?

This thing may be struggling right now, but it certainly seems it will re-develop...

I think the system will continue to treck west...I doubt the track will change. Likely just a delay with intensification.

[zaqxsw75050]

Looks like Gustav is coming back.

[txwatcher91]

How would delayed intensification affect Gustav's track?

If it does fall back to a depression, or even an open wave, will it head more north or south?

This thing may be struggling right now, but it certainly seems it will re-develop...

Oh there is no doubt Gustav can redevelop but its going to be a longer process than many had envisioned and since conditions are going to improve for Gustav, certainly it bears watching.

Here are my thoughts.

Remember everyone, recon found a 999mb pressure and a well defined LLC just a few hours ago. Just because it doesn't look good now doesn't mean it won't in the coming days. Here are the favorable factors that I see. I see a potential Cat 3 or 4 when it enters the GOM, I have seen too many times how a sheared LLC from weaker systems has survived and when it entered warm waters and less shear it rapidly developed. Katrina, Andrew, Bertha, etc. are a few examples I can think of. If this didn't have an LLC I would agree, but an LLC and 999mb pressure with high heat content and low shear is a perfect combo for RO and RI.
High TCHP: Check
Low shear: Check
Over water: Check
Good outflow: Check
Strong LLC: Check
Low pressure: Check
DMAX ahead: Check
Burst of convection: Check

[CrazyC83]

Looks like Gustav is coming back.

Yeah we are seeing mixed signals. Looks like a partial eyewall but not much else.

[Jagno]

Sean,
I think the extreme reactions to the announcements is exactly what the officials were hoping for. If you remember correctly with Katrina many people downplayed the storm including the Mayor, and unnamed local mets. The were crippled with the "wait and see approach" If I remember correctly you yourself did not leave the city even when a mandatory evac was called but instead held up in a french quarter hotel. Quite a few people were partying in the bars the Sat. night before landfall and Sunday morning people were lining up to get into the Dome.

IMHO, Gov. Jindal does not want to see a repeat of that same laid back attitude and I personally feel that being truthful and open about the possibilites does not "harm" anyone. In fact I believe that everyone in South Louisiana should prepare for the worst and pray for the best. If Gus goes poof and its a lot of fuss about nothing then great. If , however, Gus restrengthens and threatens the GC the the people have prepped well in advance. All in all I give the Officials in LA. an A+ so far.
JMHO,
TIm

Thank you Tim; This is a very accurate assessment of what we are experiencing. Everyone I've talked to has said that they'd rather have adequate warning now than chaos at landfall. We too are very proud of our Governor on this emergency activation plan.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on that radar it appears to be moving west-southwestward at near 250 degree's. Also I will not declare it dead intil wxman57 posts his McCoy pick saying it is so.