ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

Rita, mandatory was issued for Jefferson & Orange Counties that Thursday morning @ 6 a.m.

[txag2005]

Any idea when the new GFDL will come out?

[Air Force Met]

The way everything has been shifting, I really, really hope the people in Louisiana are prepared...just in case. Not because I think it will go there, but because I think that is a possibility and it would be horrible if Ike came knocking at their door and they weren't prepared.

Except for SW La. the remainder of the LA. coast is not in the NHC's cone.
I'm sure if they thought there was a significant danger they would have put the entire
coastline under the cone and a Hurricane Watch. IMO

Again...the cone does not change. It does not depend on the model spread...or how much they think they have a track nailed. It is 2/3rds the average error for each point.

The only way to move the CONE is to move the TRACK. Unless you suggest placing the track over SE TX...Jefferson County...there is no way to get the cone over there.

I will harp on this until everyone understands it...or I die. Stop this misguided notion that the NHC arbitrarily changes the cone to fit the circumstances.

[Starburst]

Dr. Masters said in his on air question session tonight that the NOAA Jet was sampling the gulf at that very moment and a wee bit of the data would be in the 2am model runs and all of it would be in the next run. That he said should nail down the track.

[Stormcenter]

I guess this is the latest GFDL run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[jimguru]

WHXX04 KWBC 102333
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE 09L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 10
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.2 85.8 310./ 7.0
6 24.5 86.5 292./ 6.9
12 24.8 87.2 296./ 7.5
18 25.3 88.0 302./ 8.4
24 25.7 89.0 293./ 9.9
30 26.0 89.9 287./ 8.6
36 26.4 91.2 288./12.6
42 26.9 92.2 298./ 9.9
48 27.7 93.3 304./12.6
54 28.5 94.3 309./11.7
60 29.4 95.2 313./12.2
66 30.5 96.0 326./13.5
72 31.8 96.2 351./12.5
78 33.5 95.8 12./17.2
84 35.6 94.8 25./23.2
90 37.8 92.5 46./28.6
96 40.0 88.9 59./35.3
102 41.9 84.3 67./39.5
108 44.0 79.4 68./41.3
114 46.1 73.7 69./45.8
120 48.7 68.2 65./45.4
126 50.2 63.9 71./31.8

[ROCK]

I guess this is the latest GFDL run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

thats Lowell....

[PTrackerLA]

That was run for Lowell, while one would think it should be the same, multiple times this year did the model runs for (storm a) but actually showed storm b was alot different than the specific model output for storm b. Make sense?

[HouTXmetro]

you can see the GFDL too on that run, no change?

[Stormcenter]

The way everything has been shifting, I really, really hope the people in Louisiana are prepared...just in case. Not because I think it will go there, but because I think that is a possibility and it would be horrible if Ike came knocking at their door and they weren't prepared.

Except for SW La. the remainder of the LA. coast is not in the NHC's cone.
I'm sure if they thought there was a significant danger they would have put the entire
coastline under the cone and a Hurricane Watch. IMO

Again...the cone does not change. It does not depend on the model spread...or how much they think they have a track nailed. It is 2/3rds the average error for each point.

The only way to move the CONE is to move the TRACK. Unless you suggest placing the track over SE TX...Jefferson County...there is no way to get the cone over there.

I will harp on this until everyone understands it...or I die. Stop this misguided notion that the NHC arbitrarily changes the cone to fit the circumstances.

Please don't die...I would hate to think I had something to do with that. All kidding aside this has got to be one of the most stressful nights since Rita.

[thetruesms]

Most recent?

First thing I've learned to do when a spaghetti plot gets posted up is to check the timestamps on the top of the image. There's a lot of 18Z runs in there.

[Air Force Met]

you can see the GFDL too on that run, no change?

Nope...No change. Still just west of San Luis Pass.

[Stormcenter]

you can see the GFDL too on that run, no change?

My mistake...yes I agree. i don't see much change.

[smw1981]

The way everything has been shifting, I really, really hope the people in Louisiana are prepared...just in case. Not because I think it will go there, but because I think that is a possibility and it would be horrible if Ike came knocking at their door and they weren't prepared.

Except for SW La. the remainder of the LA. coast is not in the NHC's cone.
I'm sure if they thought there was a significant danger they would have put the entire
coastline under the cone and a Hurricane Watch. IMO

Again...the cone does not change. It does not depend on the model spread...or how much they think they have a track nailed. It is 2/3rds the average error for each point.

The only way to move the CONE is to move the TRACK. Unless you suggest placing the track over SE TX...Jefferson County...there is no way to get the cone over there.

I will harp on this until everyone understands it...or I die. Stop this misguided notion that the NHC arbitrarily changes the cone to fit the circumstances.

Hey AFM..Not sure if you were talking to me or not, but I was saying that for the SWLA coast that is in the cone right now (according to the graphic at the top of this page!). I have had on TWC all night and they keep saying "Texas better be prepared", more and more of the same, but no talk whatsoever about SWLA should also be prepared. So my point was that if Ike was to track on the right side of the cone, I really hope those people in SW LA are prepared. (I think I probably should have noted all of this in my first post to reduce the confusion...sorry about that!)

PS - I understand the whole track/cone thing because of your explaination the other day (Sunday or Monday maybe?). I didn't really grasp it before that so thanks for that one too lol...

[Air Force Met]

Hey AFM..Not sure if you were talking to me or not, but I was saying that for the SWLA coast that is in the cone right now (according to the graphic at the top of this page!). I have had on TWC all night and they keep saying "Texas better be prepared", more and more of the same, but no talk whatsoever about SWLA should also be prepared. So my point was that if Ike was to track on the right side of the cone, I really hope those people in SW LA are prepared. (I think I probably should have noted all of this in my first post to reduce the confusion...sorry about that!)

Nope...was speaking to the other poster. Pretty sure they have seen numeroud pro-met rants from me and others about the nature of the cone.

[Wx_Warrior]

After this run, when are the next HWRF/GFDL runs????

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFDL very similar at landfall..perhaps a hair further south and west.

[Viper54r]

WHXX04 KWBC 102333
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE 09L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 10
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.2 85.8 310./ 7.0
6 24.5 86.5 292./ 6.9
12 24.8 87.2 296./ 7.5
18 25.3 88.0 302./ 8.4
24 25.7 89.0 293./ 9.9
30 26.0 89.9 287./ 8.6
36 26.4 91.2 288./12.6
42 26.9 92.2 298./ 9.9
48 27.7 93.3 304./12.6
54 28.5 94.3 309./11.7
60 29.4 95.2 313./12.2
66 30.5 96.0 326./13.5
72 31.8 96.2 351./12.5
78 33.5 95.8 12./17.2
84 35.6 94.8 25./23.2
90 37.8 92.5 46./28.6
96 40.0 88.9 59./35.3
102 41.9 84.3 67./39.5
108 44.0 79.4 68./41.3
114 46.1 73.7 69./45.8
120 48.7 68.2 65./45.4
126 50.2 63.9 71./31.8

Thats 18Z, where is 00Z?

[jimguru]

WHXX04 KWBC 102333
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE 09L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 10
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.2 85.8 310./ 7.0
6 24.5 86.5 292./ 6.9
12 24.8 87.2 296./ 7.5
18 25.3 88.0 302./ 8.4
24 25.7 89.0 293./ 9.9
30 26.0 89.9 287./ 8.6
36 26.4 91.2 288./12.6
42 26.9 92.2 298./ 9.9
48 27.7 93.3 304./12.6
54 28.5 94.3 309./11.7
60 29.4 95.2 313./12.2
66 30.5 96.0 326./13.5
72 31.8 96.2 351./12.5
78 33.5 95.8 12./17.2
84 35.6 94.8 25./23.2
90 37.8 92.5 46./28.6
96 40.0 88.9 59./35.3
102 41.9 84.3 67./39.5
108 44.0 79.4 68./41.3
114 46.1 73.7 69./45.8
120 48.7 68.2 65./45.4
126 50.2 63.9 71./31.8

Thats 18Z, where is 00Z?

DOH!!! Let me see what I can find - SORRY ALL

[jimguru]

SORRY FOR THE BAD POST.. HERE IS THE LATEST

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 110530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE       09L
INITIAL TIME   0Z SEP 11
DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)
   0            24.7             86.3           315./ 6.0
   6            24.9             87.1           286./ 7.8
  12            25.2             88.0           291./ 8.3
  18            25.5             88.8           284./ 7.9
  24            25.7             89.8           286./ 9.3
  30            26.0             90.9           285./10.7
  36            26.6             92.0           299./11.2
  42            27.3             93.3           297./12.9
  48            28.1             94.2           310./11.4
  54            28.9             95.2           311./12.3
  60            30.1             96.0           326./13.3
  66            31.4             96.5           340./13.3
  72            32.9             96.3             7./15.2
  78            34.5             95.6            23./17.7
  84            36.5             93.9            40./23.4
  90            38.2             91.1            59./28.6
  96            39.4             87.5            71./30.0
 102            40.6             83.4            74./33.9
 108            41.5             78.9            79./35.0
 114            42.6             73.6            78./40.9
 120            43.6             68.7            78./37.0
 126            44.9             63.9            75./37.0