ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1210 UTC SAT SEP 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080920 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080920 1200 080921 0000 080921 1200 080922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 67.5W 15.2N 69.2W 16.2N 71.5W 17.1N 73.4W
BAMD 14.7N 67.5W 15.4N 68.8W 16.1N 70.2W 16.7N 71.5W
BAMM 14.7N 67.5W 15.2N 69.0W 15.9N 70.8W 16.6N 72.7W
LBAR 14.7N 67.5W 15.9N 69.2W 17.3N 70.8W 18.5N 72.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080922 1200 080923 1200 080924 1200 080925 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 75.5W 18.8N 79.5W 19.5N 82.8W 20.5N 85.2W
BAMD 17.1N 72.8W 17.4N 75.0W 17.4N 76.9W 17.8N 78.3W
BAMM 17.1N 74.5W 17.8N 77.9W 18.2N 80.7W 19.1N 82.8W
LBAR 19.2N 73.1W 18.8N 75.0W 17.4N 76.7W 17.5N 77.2W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 62KTS 64KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 62KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 65.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 63.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

BEST TRACK made the change in position more eastward and the models followed.

WHXX01 KWBC 201402
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1402 UTC SAT SEP 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080920 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080920 1200 080921 0000 080921 1200 080922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 65.7W 15.7N 67.5W 17.2N 69.7W 18.3N 71.5W
BAMD 14.8N 65.7W 15.8N 66.7W 16.7N 67.8W 17.5N 68.9W
BAMM 14.8N 65.7W 15.6N 67.2W 16.5N 69.0W 17.3N 70.6W
LBAR 14.8N 65.7W 15.9N 66.9W 17.3N 68.2W 18.4N 69.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080922 1200 080923 1200 080924 1200 080925 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 73.4W 19.9N 77.0W 20.2N 79.5W 21.0N 80.8W
BAMD 17.9N 69.8W 18.2N 71.4W 18.6N 72.4W 19.7N 72.6W
BAMM 17.8N 72.2W 18.3N 75.1W 18.5N 77.3W 19.3N 78.6W
LBAR 18.9N 70.0W 18.4N 71.7W 17.9N 72.8W 19.1N 72.7W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 59KTS
DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 54KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 65.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 64.8W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 63.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[jlauderdal]

BEST TRACK made the change in position more eastward and the models followed.

WHXX01 KWBC 201402
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1402 UTC SAT SEP 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080920 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080920 1200 080921 0000 080921 1200 080922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 65.7W 15.7N 67.5W 17.2N 69.7W 18.3N 71.5W
BAMD 14.8N 65.7W 15.8N 66.7W 16.7N 67.8W 17.5N 68.9W
BAMM 14.8N 65.7W 15.6N 67.2W 16.5N 69.0W 17.3N 70.6W
LBAR 14.8N 65.7W 15.9N 66.9W 17.3N 68.2W 18.4N 69.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080922 1200 080923 1200 080924 1200 080925 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 73.4W 19.9N 77.0W 20.2N 79.5W 21.0N 80.8W
BAMD 17.9N 69.8W 18.2N 71.4W 18.6N 72.4W 19.7N 72.6W
BAMM 17.8N 72.2W 18.3N 75.1W 18.5N 77.3W 19.3N 78.6W
LBAR 18.9N 70.0W 18.4N 71.7W 17.9N 72.8W 19.1N 72.7W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 59KTS
DSHP 43KTS 48KTS 54KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 65.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 64.8W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 63.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

well at least there is agreement on a "general" direction, does ajc3 care to put his hat in the ring, he was good with hanna and josephine

[gatorcane]

Not sure what this talk about going East of the CONUS is all about. Maybe because the initial motion is NW instead of W through the caribbean?

There is quite a large H5 ridge that is expected to build in across the Eastern CONUS in the long-range. That would cause a NW motion into or just east of the Bahamas (through the Greater Antilles) through a current break in the ridge and a bend back to the west at some point.

So this one needs to be watched closely if it develops.

GFS 7 days the H5 ridge is very strong (in fact it builds in earlier)



and

NOGAPS at 120 hours

[jinftl]

Please correct me if I am wrong....hasn't there been a general 'right bias' with some models for early runs with systems this year and last year as well...turning them north and out to sea initially, and then trending west over time?

[jlauderdal]

Please correct me if I am wrong....hasn't there been a general 'right bias' with some models for early runs with systems this year and last year as well...turning them north and out to sea initially, and then trending west over time?

well ike comes to mind

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 201902
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC SAT SEP 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080920 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080920 1800 080921 0600 080921 1800 080922 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 66.1W 16.7N 67.8W 18.2N 69.6W 18.9N 71.0W
BAMD 15.6N 66.1W 16.5N 67.2W 17.4N 68.2W 18.0N 69.1W
BAMM 15.6N 66.1W 16.4N 67.6W 17.5N 69.2W 18.1N 70.5W
LBAR 15.6N 66.1W 16.7N 67.2W 17.9N 68.3W 18.7N 69.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080922 1800 080923 1800 080924 1800 080925 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 72.7W 20.1N 75.9W 20.4N 78.0W 21.1N 79.0W
BAMD 18.2N 69.9W 18.2N 71.2W 18.8N 71.8W 19.8N 71.9W
BAMM 18.4N 71.8W 18.5N 74.3W 18.6N 75.7W 19.3N 76.4W
LBAR 18.9N 70.3W 18.5N 71.9W 18.6N 73.0W 20.0N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 64KTS 68KTS
DSHP 34KTS 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 66.1W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 65.3W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 64.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL makes 93L a major cane near Bermuda.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF makes 93L a cat 1 hurricane in the Western Atlantic.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

WHXX01 KWBC 201902
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC SAT SEP 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080920 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080920 1800 080921 0600 080921 1800 080922 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 66.1W 16.7N 67.8W 18.2N 69.6W 18.9N 71.0W
BAMD 15.6N 66.1W 16.5N 67.2W 17.4N 68.2W 18.0N 69.1W
BAMM 15.6N 66.1W 16.4N 67.6W 17.5N 69.2W 18.1N 70.5W
LBAR 15.6N 66.1W 16.7N 67.2W 17.9N 68.3W 18.7N 69.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080922 1800 080923 1800 080924 1800 080925 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 72.7W 20.1N 75.9W 20.4N 78.0W 21.1N 79.0W
BAMD 18.2N 69.9W 18.2N 71.2W 18.8N 71.8W 19.8N 71.9W
BAMM 18.4N 71.8W 18.5N 74.3W 18.6N 75.7W 19.3N 76.4W
LBAR 18.9N 70.3W 18.5N 71.9W 18.6N 73.0W 20.0N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 64KTS 68KTS
DSHP 34KTS 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 66.1W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 65.3W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 64.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Notice none of those runs are recurving 93L, they all have a W component at the end of the run.

[DESTRUCTION5]

WHXX01 KWBC 201902
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC SAT SEP 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080920 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080920 1800 080921 0600 080921 1800 080922 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 66.1W 16.7N 67.8W 18.2N 69.6W 18.9N 71.0W
BAMD 15.6N 66.1W 16.5N 67.2W 17.4N 68.2W 18.0N 69.1W
BAMM 15.6N 66.1W 16.4N 67.6W 17.5N 69.2W 18.1N 70.5W
LBAR 15.6N 66.1W 16.7N 67.2W 17.9N 68.3W 18.7N 69.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080922 1800 080923 1800 080924 1800 080925 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 72.7W 20.1N 75.9W 20.4N 78.0W 21.1N 79.0W
BAMD 18.2N 69.9W 18.2N 71.2W 18.8N 71.8W 19.8N 71.9W
BAMM 18.4N 71.8W 18.5N 74.3W 18.6N 75.7W 19.3N 76.4W
LBAR 18.9N 70.3W 18.5N 71.9W 18.6N 73.0W 20.0N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 64KTS 68KTS
DSHP 34KTS 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 66.1W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 65.3W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 64.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Notice none of those runs are recurving 93L, they all have a W component at the end of the run.

I think thats stretching it just a bit...LOL

[Blown Away]

LOL, I hear you. I just meant none are turning 93L NE at the end of the run and they do not indicate a recurve away from the CONUS at this point.

[jinftl]

Is 93L moving NW or NNW to N? The models that show a system well east of the U.S. show a NNW to almost N movement in the very near future.

WHXX01 KWBC 201902
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC SAT SEP 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080920 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080920 1800 080921 0600 080921 1800 080922 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 66.1W 16.7N 67.8W 18.2N 69.6W 18.9N 71.0W
BAMD 15.6N 66.1W 16.5N 67.2W 17.4N 68.2W 18.0N 69.1W
BAMM 15.6N 66.1W 16.4N 67.6W 17.5N 69.2W 18.1N 70.5W
LBAR 15.6N 66.1W 16.7N 67.2W 17.9N 68.3W 18.7N 69.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080922 1800 080923 1800 080924 1800 080925 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 72.7W 20.1N 75.9W 20.4N 78.0W 21.1N 79.0W
BAMD 18.2N 69.9W 18.2N 71.2W 18.8N 71.8W 19.8N 71.9W
BAMM 18.4N 71.8W 18.5N 74.3W 18.6N 75.7W 19.3N 76.4W
LBAR 18.9N 70.3W 18.5N 71.9W 18.6N 73.0W 20.0N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 64KTS 68KTS
DSHP 34KTS 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 66.1W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 65.3W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 64.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Notice none of those runs are recurving 93L, they all have a W component at the end of the run.

[Ixolib]

Considering the present runs, would this system be considered to be a "fish", if (and assuming) the ends of the runs tend more to the right?

Or...

Is a "fish" storm more considered to be one that develops further east and recurves, perhaps in the general direction of the Azores, but much further away from the islands and the CONUS?

[jinftl]

I would think that until....and if...development takes place, we would really need to get a better fix on a consistent center of circulation to initialize models from. Until that happens, there could be wide model shifts just based on where the center is initialized. Then, we want to see a trend before declaring anything a fish or not.....a few runs with consistent results.

And a 'fish' for the u.s. may not be a fish for hispanola, cuba, bahamas, etc.

Considering the present runs, would this system be considered to be a "fish", if (and assuming) the ends of the runs tend more to the right?

Or...

Is a "fish" storm more considered to be one that develops further east and recurves, perhaps in the general direction of the Azores, but much further away from the islands and the CONUS?

[Jessie]

Maybe this is the one that New York has been waiting for ---

[HurricaneFreak]

Wow there is a lot of convection on the east side of this storm and could soon wrap around the LLC when shear lessens.Hmmm.....okay so this will move NW over PR or Hispanola or between then after it will move towards the Bahamas based on the computer models I see.Then the path is uncertain from there because its a five day path which always changes.It is not even a depression yet so the computer models could change once this storm intensifies to a depression or TS.So the whole East coast of the US is not out of the woods yet.This could go any where from Miami,Fl to Cape Hatteras,NC.We just got to see how much its going to weaken over the high mountains of PR and Hispanola.

[Lowpressure]

Please correct me if I am wrong....hasn't there been a general 'right bias' with some models for early runs with systems this year and last year as well...turning them north and out to sea initially, and then trending west over time?

well ike comes to mind

I would have to think long and hard to remember a initial model run that far off the ultimate landfall point.

[jlauderdal]

Please correct me if I am wrong....hasn't there been a general 'right bias' with some models for early runs with systems this year and last year as well...turning them north and out to sea initially, and then trending west over time?

well ike comes to mind

I would have to think long and hard to remember a initial model run that far off the ultimate landfall point.

go back and look at gustav

[perk]

Please correct me if I am wrong....hasn't there been a general 'right bias' with some models for early runs with systems this year and last year as well...turning them north and out to sea initially, and then trending west over time?

well ike comes to mind

Ike is a good example,some pro-mets had it going to North Carolina initially.

[HURAKAN]