ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
The whole spaghetti for 94L:
Anyone knows what TVCC is? Thats a wacho track from that.
Anyone knows what TVCC is? Thats a wacho track from that.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:I think this was the strong CANE GFS had very near the East Coast of Florida in 10 days.
Stayed tuned once I'm off Fay I'll look at this one
What Fay is the just the first?
Great, sounds like a small chance of two hits of a TS/'Cane within 2/3 weeks...sounds familiar....need help to remember...
cycloneye wrote:The whole spaghetti for 94L:
Anyone knows what TVCC is? That's a wacko track from that.
....The
....Verifiable
....Crazy
traCk
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Re:
KWT wrote:Yeah sure, here is 6hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif
you can see it further west with 1009.
Now heres 36hrs out, now at 1011:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif
60hrs has it at 1010, note whats developing behind it now:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif
78hrs and 94l opens into a wave:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif
120hrs and you can see the system further east now in central Atlantic, 94L just about gone:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
168hrs and wave behind 94l still going between 20/60:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
Should be able to track it from there towards Florida.
Thank you KWT... looks like an active future
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- Gustywind
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Re: Re:
jaxfladude wrote:gatorcane wrote:I think this was the strong CANE GFS had very near the East Coast of Florida in 10 days.
Stayed tuned once I'm off Fay I'll look at this one
What Fay is the just the first?
Great, sounds like a small chance of two hits of a TS/'Cane within 2/3 weeks...sounds familiar....need help to remember...cycloneye wrote:The whole spaghetti for 94L:
Anyone knows what TVCC is? That's a wacko track from that.
....The
....Verifiable
....Crazy
traCk
Hope you're right because i don't like it: The Vicious or Verifiable Crazy Cane
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
...and NOGAPS wants to take it back to Africa - strange models indeed.
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
Jeez, let's hope the 18z gfs lives up to its reputation as the 'beer run' - that shows a biggie heading straight for NO
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
/edit - sorry, this should have gone in the Fay model runs.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
/edit - sorry, this should have gone in the Fay model runs.
Last edited by jojo on Mon Aug 18, 2008 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
jojo wrote:Jeez, let's hope the 18z gfs lives up to its reputation as the 'beer run' - that shows a biggie heading straight for NO
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Thats Fay, not 94L.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
462
WHXX01 KWBC 190044
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080819 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080819 0000 080819 1200 080820 0000 080820 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 36.2W 13.6N 38.2W 14.2N 40.8W 14.9N 44.0W
BAMD 13.1N 36.2W 13.7N 37.8W 14.7N 39.5W 15.9N 41.6W
BAMM 13.1N 36.2W 13.7N 38.0W 14.5N 40.1W 15.4N 42.7W
LBAR 13.1N 36.2W 13.5N 38.0W 14.0N 40.2W 14.5N 42.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080821 0000 080822 0000 080823 0000 080824 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 47.5W 19.3N 55.5W 22.7N 62.8W 25.9N 68.6W
BAMD 17.6N 44.0W 21.2N 49.7W 24.2N 54.5W 26.5N 57.1W
BAMM 16.7N 45.5W 19.6N 52.0W 22.0N 58.0W 24.8N 62.8W
LBAR 15.1N 45.8W 17.0N 52.3W 19.5N 58.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 52KTS 54KTS 57KTS
DSHP 49KTS 52KTS 54KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 36.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 34.4W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 32.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190044
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080819 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080819 0000 080819 1200 080820 0000 080820 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 36.2W 13.6N 38.2W 14.2N 40.8W 14.9N 44.0W
BAMD 13.1N 36.2W 13.7N 37.8W 14.7N 39.5W 15.9N 41.6W
BAMM 13.1N 36.2W 13.7N 38.0W 14.5N 40.1W 15.4N 42.7W
LBAR 13.1N 36.2W 13.5N 38.0W 14.0N 40.2W 14.5N 42.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080821 0000 080822 0000 080823 0000 080824 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 47.5W 19.3N 55.5W 22.7N 62.8W 25.9N 68.6W
BAMD 17.6N 44.0W 21.2N 49.7W 24.2N 54.5W 26.5N 57.1W
BAMM 16.7N 45.5W 19.6N 52.0W 22.0N 58.0W 24.8N 62.8W
LBAR 15.1N 45.8W 17.0N 52.3W 19.5N 58.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 52KTS 54KTS 57KTS
DSHP 49KTS 52KTS 54KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 36.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 34.4W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 32.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
Here is why the 8 PM TWO said marginal conditions.This is the 00:00 UTC SHIP Shear forecast:
Code: Select all
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942008 08/19/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 43 49 51 52 53 54 56 57
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 43 49 51 52 53 54 56 57
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 36 36 37 39 42
SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 9 15 23 18 21 26 19 18 18 20 17
SHEAR DIR 147 156 179 187 203 225 208 245 244 266 264 261 254
SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 133 130 125 127 129 131 140 144 147 151
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 132 130 126 122 125 127 127 134 136 136 138
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 10 8 9
700-500 MB RH 65 61 62 60 60 55 53 50 49 52 52 58 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 7 8 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 78 92 93 87 58 45 19 21 -5 -10 -21
200 MB DIV 69 50 36 33 20 27 21 2 -2 17 -9 46 25
LAND (KM) 1826 1839 1802 1740 1686 1576 1509 1493 1373 1136 902 767 774
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.4 16.7 18.1 19.6 20.9 22.0 23.3 24.8
LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.1 38.0 39.1 40.1 42.7 45.5 48.7 52.0 55.2 58.0 60.6 62.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 17 17 15 14 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 14 16 17 18 17 17 21 26 26 46 45 41 54
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -10. -10.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 31. 32.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
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- ftolmsteen
- Tropical Storm
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
jojo wrote:...and NOGAPS wants to take it back to Africa - strange models indeed.
At this point, I NOGAPS. GDFL is NOT my friend.
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
At this point, if we've learned anything, you might as well not even pay any attention to the models, with a not-yet-classified system.
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- HURAKAN
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461
WHXX04 KWBC 190530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 19
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.1 36.1 280./ 8.9
6 13.1 36.8 272./ 6.8
12 13.7 38.3 291./15.3
18 13.9 39.5 282./11.4
24 14.0 40.7 276./12.2
30 14.0 42.2 267./15.0
36 14.1 43.7 276./14.1
42 14.5 45.6 282./18.8
48 15.1 47.5 289./19.1
54 15.4 49.3 278./18.3
60 15.8 51.1 282./17.0
66 16.5 53.2 290./21.6
72 16.9 54.9 281./16.4
78 17.3 56.8 283./18.7
84 17.5 58.5 276./16.8
90 18.0 60.2 286./16.1
96 18.4 61.7 286./15.0
102 18.9 63.1 287./14.0
108 19.5 64.7 291./16.6
114 20.4 66.0 304./15.4
120 20.8 67.3 287./12.7
126 21.3 68.2 300./ 9.6
WHXX04 KWBC 190530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 19
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.1 36.1 280./ 8.9
6 13.1 36.8 272./ 6.8
12 13.7 38.3 291./15.3
18 13.9 39.5 282./11.4
24 14.0 40.7 276./12.2
30 14.0 42.2 267./15.0
36 14.1 43.7 276./14.1
42 14.5 45.6 282./18.8
48 15.1 47.5 289./19.1
54 15.4 49.3 278./18.3
60 15.8 51.1 282./17.0
66 16.5 53.2 290./21.6
72 16.9 54.9 281./16.4
78 17.3 56.8 283./18.7
84 17.5 58.5 276./16.8
90 18.0 60.2 286./16.1
96 18.4 61.7 286./15.0
102 18.9 63.1 287./14.0
108 19.5 64.7 291./16.6
114 20.4 66.0 304./15.4
120 20.8 67.3 287./12.7
126 21.3 68.2 300./ 9.6
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
976
WHXX04 KWBC 191127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 19
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.0 37.0 275./ 8.9
6 13.5 37.5 316./ 7.2
12 13.8 39.0 281./14.3
18 13.8 40.5 272./14.7
24 14.1 42.1 278./15.8
30 14.1 43.8 271./16.7
36 14.1 45.5 272./16.3
42 14.7 47.2 288./17.5
48 15.3 49.1 288./19.4
54 15.8 51.1 284./19.7
60 16.2 53.3 279./21.3
66 16.4 55.3 276./19.6
72 16.5 56.9 274./15.4
78 16.9 58.5 283./15.7
84 17.3 60.1 284./16.3
90 17.5 61.7 279./14.6
96 18.0 63.5 284./18.2
102 18.4 64.8 288./12.9
108 19.2 66.1 301./14.7
114 19.6 67.7 283./15.6
120 20.4 68.6 312./11.8
126 20.8 69.5 292./ 9.0
WHXX04 KWBC 191127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 19
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.0 37.0 275./ 8.9
6 13.5 37.5 316./ 7.2
12 13.8 39.0 281./14.3
18 13.8 40.5 272./14.7
24 14.1 42.1 278./15.8
30 14.1 43.8 271./16.7
36 14.1 45.5 272./16.3
42 14.7 47.2 288./17.5
48 15.3 49.1 288./19.4
54 15.8 51.1 284./19.7
60 16.2 53.3 279./21.3
66 16.4 55.3 276./19.6
72 16.5 56.9 274./15.4
78 16.9 58.5 283./15.7
84 17.3 60.1 284./16.3
90 17.5 61.7 279./14.6
96 18.0 63.5 284./18.2
102 18.4 64.8 288./12.9
108 19.2 66.1 301./14.7
114 19.6 67.7 283./15.6
120 20.4 68.6 312./11.8
126 20.8 69.5 292./ 9.0
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
Hmmm,SHIP now increases intensity to hurricane.
WHXX01 KWBC 191226
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1226 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080819 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080819 1200 080820 0000 080820 1200 080821 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 37.2W 13.0N 39.3W 13.6N 42.0W 14.5N 45.3W
BAMD 12.5N 37.2W 13.2N 38.6W 14.0N 40.5W 14.7N 42.8W
BAMM 12.5N 37.2W 13.2N 38.9W 13.7N 41.1W 14.4N 43.6W
LBAR 12.5N 37.2W 12.8N 38.6W 13.1N 40.5W 13.6N 43.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080821 1200 080822 1200 080823 1200 080824 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 49.1W 19.3N 56.9W 22.2N 64.9W 25.8N 70.4W
BAMD 15.5N 45.6W 17.3N 51.5W 18.5N 57.7W 19.2N 63.8W
BAMM 15.0N 46.6W 16.8N 52.6W 17.9N 58.5W 18.8N 64.3W
LBAR 14.2N 46.2W 16.0N 53.0W 18.3N 59.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 69KTS 77KTS 81KTS
DSHP 54KTS 69KTS 77KTS 81KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 34.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 191226
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1226 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080819 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080819 1200 080820 0000 080820 1200 080821 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 37.2W 13.0N 39.3W 13.6N 42.0W 14.5N 45.3W
BAMD 12.5N 37.2W 13.2N 38.6W 14.0N 40.5W 14.7N 42.8W
BAMM 12.5N 37.2W 13.2N 38.9W 13.7N 41.1W 14.4N 43.6W
LBAR 12.5N 37.2W 12.8N 38.6W 13.1N 40.5W 13.6N 43.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080821 1200 080822 1200 080823 1200 080824 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 49.1W 19.3N 56.9W 22.2N 64.9W 25.8N 70.4W
BAMD 15.5N 45.6W 17.3N 51.5W 18.5N 57.7W 19.2N 63.8W
BAMM 15.0N 46.6W 16.8N 52.6W 17.9N 58.5W 18.8N 64.3W
LBAR 14.2N 46.2W 16.0N 53.0W 18.3N 59.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 69KTS 77KTS 81KTS
DSHP 54KTS 69KTS 77KTS 81KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 34.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
This is why SHIP makes it a hurricane.They changed from moderate shear to light shear:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942008 08/19/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 62 69 73 77 80 81
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 62 69 73 77 80 81
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 55 64 74 83 88
SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 10 9 10 9 8 5 0 6 5 4 11
SHEAR DIR 153 158 170 211 234 195 266 172 4 148 34 112 69
SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 134 131 129 133 135 136 141 144 145 148
ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 133 132 129 127 133 133 133 137 141 141 143
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 65 63 65 63 57 53 46 46 48 45 51 47 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 67 78 85 89 74 76 70 40 39 22 27 14 26
200 MB DIV 34 37 40 36 30 27 14 8 20 -13 -4 -34 -10
LAND (KM) 1739 1743 1690 1615 1546 1428 1286 1241 1125 951 761 453 157
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.4 15.0 16.0 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8
LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.1 38.9 40.0 41.1 43.6 46.6 49.6 52.6 55.5 58.5 61.4 64.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 15 15 14 14 14 13
HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 21 17 18 28 48 50 57 61 62 58
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 28. 37. 45. 50. 54. 57. 58.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 29. 37. 44. 48. 52. 55. 56.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/19/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
Models took Fay in recurve in front of Florida but then went left when it got closer.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 94L in East Atlantic Model Runs
12z UKMET is with 94L:
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.5N 35.7W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2008 11.5N 35.7W WEAK
12UTC 21.08.2008 11.1N 36.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.08.2008 13.7N 34.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2008 15.3N 37.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2008 16.3N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2008 17.0N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2008 17.9N 48.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2008 18.8N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2008 19.3N 55.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.5N 35.7W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2008 11.5N 35.7W WEAK
12UTC 21.08.2008 11.1N 36.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.08.2008 13.7N 34.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2008 15.3N 37.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2008 16.3N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2008 17.0N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2008 17.9N 48.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2008 18.8N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2008 19.3N 55.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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